The Uggla Solution

[nsacpi]

A team can weather a bad contract with a cheap alternative who is given more playing time. We saw a bit of that this year with Schafer sharing playing time with BJ Upton.

The more serious problem is Uggla. When we traded Lowe we had to eat over two-thirds of the remaining contract. I think the proportion would be higher with Uggla. The solution to me is not necessarily to trade him, but to have a competitive solution at second where playing time is driven by performance. Unfortunately, two of the guys who could have been part of that solution, Pena and Pastornicky, are out for the season with injuries

But I think the basic idea is the right one and the one that makes the most sense for next year. We will have Pena and Pastornicky back. And La Stella should be given a long look in spring training.

A big contract to an underperforming player is obviously not a good thing. But teams in that situation have a choice to make. They can make the situation worse by allocating playing time by reputation/contract. Or they can ameliorate things by allocating playing time by performance. It is pretty obvious what we have to do next year.

[thethe]

Uggla will not be our starting second baseman next year. If he is the Braves are making a huge mistake. The guy is done and is even worse than I thought he would be this year. I am beginning to doubt the Braves can even sell him for 3 million per year.

[nsacpi]

We can survive and do well with Uggla at second. See the 2013 season.

I think the issue is what to if the decline continues.

Le'ts set aside defense for now and consider the trend in OPS:

2010 .877 (career high)
2011 .764
2012 .732
2013 .687

Now consider the alternatives. With Pena let's set aside the apparent improvement seen this year and use his career numbers. He has a career .606 OPS. Pastornicky has a career major league OPS of .619. Based on these numbers, Uggla remains the better hitter. But if you have a combination of additional decline from Uggla and what I consider plausible arguments for thinking Pena and Pastornicky can give us better production than their career averages, then you have a case for having a competitive situation with regards to playing time at second. You don't put Uggla in cold storage, but you start out 2014 giving him half the games and adjust up or down based on production.

If by mid-season, none of the internal alternatives (Uggla, Pena, Pastornicky, La Stella) are panning out then you start looking for a deadline deal.

What the club needs to do is make it clear from the get go next year that it is an open competition.

[Russ2dollas]

the only way i see us dumping Uggla is if he is part of a package for Kimbrel. Kimbrel is getting expensive. We have young players who are getting expensive.

I would explore trading Kimbrel + Uggla for a long term answer at 3B or 2B + maybe 2 B prospects.

It's going to be a team with big money who can afford Kimbrel long term. So they could afford Uggla.

I'm not sure who that trade partner is.

Kimbrel trades get the board up in arms....but I just don't see another way. Braves should act while they still have the leverage. If they don't get a good offer, then they keep one of the best closers ever, it's a win win.

[Diesel]

Sadly, Elliot Johnson would be a better alternative to Uggla this postseason it appears.

[PawPawMaxwell]

With the TV money kicking in in 14 now is the time to dump Uggla. I dont know if putting him in a package would make it easier or not. Regardless, Wren will have to eat a lot of money.
Rather than using scrubs (my term) like Pastor or Pena, I would see what it would take to get Profar from Texas. Their #1 prospect just happens to be another 2nd baseman and Kinsler is going nowhere. Kinda like Uggla but with capable performance.
Kimbrel, if it is decided to cut while on a high, Detroit would be MY prefered trade partner. Castellanos is blocked at 3rd and was moved to LF to accomodate Miggy.
Would anyone be ammenable to trading JUpton if it allowed retention of Heyward and made Freeman more affordable?

[thethe]

the only way i see us dumping Uggla is if he is part of a package for Kimbrel. Kimbrel is getting expensive. We have young players who are getting expensive.

I would explore trading Kimbrel + Uggla for a long term answer at 3B or 2B + maybe 2 B prospects.

It's going to be a team with big money who can afford Kimbrel long term. So they could afford Uggla.

I'm not sure who that trade partner is.

Kimbrel trades get the board up in arms....but I just don't see another way. Braves should act while they still have the leverage. If they don't get a good offer, then they keep one of the best closers ever, it's a win win.

I agree. THe Braves need to explore trading Kimbrel. We should still be able to get a great prospect or two and get rid of Uggla.

[stpeteirish]

Is Pena even under control, or is he a Free Agent? He's got a few years under his belt. He's probably a better option than Pastor and might just outplay Uggla as well.

Can't spend a lot of money on a guy like him, tho.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Is Pena even under control, or is he a Free Agent? He's got a few years under his belt. He's probably a better option than Pastor and might just outplay Uggla as well.

Can't spend a lot of money on a guy like him, tho.

Pena is 1st time arb eligible this winter, no history except small sample with us to warrant a significant contract especially since he is unlikely to be available til mid season.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Uggla proves to me everyday that you can't be a dead pull hitter and be successful. That's all he tries to do, he never tries to go the opposite way. I can't stand watching him. Unless a pitcher makes a mistake he can't hurt you.

[Russ2dollas]

I agree. THe Braves need to explore trading Kimbrel. We should still be able to get a great prospect or two and get rid of Uggla.

Glad someone doesn't think I'm crazy...

This is the off season to do it. Not a lot of major holes to fill. Just concentrate on getting a Kimbrel deal that sets us up of the long term. Then look at in house extensions and think about 3B and 2B after the Kimbrel deal is done and you know what you got for those guys.

The Mac thing is not going to be a big deal for Wrenn IMO. He'll make his best offer and we'll either have Mac or we'll be going Gattis/Laird/CB. Not going free agent.

Although if they sign Mac then they potentially could put CB or Gattis into a Kimbrel deal if they really wanted to get a monster deal going. Maybe Rangers if they don't get Mac.....(still think they get Mac).

[thethe]

Glad someone doesn't think I'm crazy...

This is the off season to do it. Not a lot of major holes to fill. Just concentrate on getting a Kimbrel deal that sets us up of the long term. Then look at in house extensions and think about 3B and 2B after the Kimbrel deal is done and you know what you got for those guys.

The Mac thing is not going to be a big deal for Wrenn IMO. He'll make his best offer and we'll either have Mac or we'll be going Gattis/Laird/CB. Not going free agent.

Although if they sign Mac then they potentially could put CB or Gattis into a Kimbrel deal if they really wanted to get a monster deal going. Maybe Rangers if they don't get Mac.....(still think they get Mac).

Wonder which teams would try hard for Kimbrel.

Do you think the Red Sox would trade Owens and Betts for him? That might be a trade I'd look at.

[skidlee]

Owens, Middlebrooks, and A reliever

[thethe]

Owens, Middlebrooks, and A reliever

Middlebrooks has awful plate discipline. I think he is very overrated.

[Dalyn]

Uggla has been treated like a favorite since his arrival. He needed to be benched ages ago to see if it would jolt him a little. If he doesn't go all Beltran during the playoffs, he better have some competition in spring (at the very least). Playing favorites is getting old.

[thethe]

Uggla has been treated like a favorite since his arrival. He needed to be benched ages ago to see if it would jolt him a little. If he doesn't go all Beltran during the playoffs, he better have some competition in spring (at the very least). Playing favorites is getting old.

Freddi can't be even given the option to play Uggla next year. Auction him off to the highest bidder or just DFA him. He is toast.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I personally cant agree with getting Middlebrooks.

[Hudson2]

Man I'd hate to trade Kimbrel! But if it improves us long term then u have to put the team first. I'd take all the tv money and try to lock up Heyward and Freeman. That should be our first 2 moves bc if u trade Kimbrel first then it makes our team look worse on paper and is less of a selling point to other players.

[nsacpi]

The smarter teams like the Red Sox realize that the arbitration system and market tends to overvalue even very good closers. So they let Papelbon walk. The dumber teams like Philly will go for those players.

If we want to move Kimbrel and Uggla in a package and be well compensated for it, we need a counterparty that is dumb and rich. Like Philly. Except Philly has a lot invested in their closer and second baseman.

There is only one team that is dumb and rich enough to do such a deal and has a need for a closer and second baseman. That would be the Dodgers. What would you want from the Dodgers in exchange for Kimbrel/Uggla?

Actually there might be a second team. The Tigers if they don't bring back Infante. What would you like from the Tigers?

[thethe]

Man I'd hate to trade Kimbrel! But if it improves us long term then u have to put the team first. I'd take all the tv money and try to lock up Heyward and Freeman. That should be our first 2 moves bc if u trade Kimbrel first then it makes our team look worse on paper and is less of a selling point to other players.

Bottom line is the Braves will never be able to afford Kimbrel long term. It'd be great if we were the Dodgers and Kimbrel went in the HOF as a Brave but that just isn't going to happen. If the Braves can get two long term pieces for him that is the way to go. Braves have bullpen arms in their minor league system. Obviously none of them would touch Kimbrel's level of effectiveness but you are probably talking about the difference of 2 wins over the course of a season. Plus, you get that extra 12-15 million a year and alot it to the rest of your team so you are basically cancelling out that loss. Kimbrel will not be a Brave past 2014 IMO. I hope we leverage as much value as possible and trade him this offseason.