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Thread: Trade Inciarte or No?

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    Just so I'm clear -- the consensus seems to be that if we get an amazing, knock-our-socks-off, holy jeez offer on a player, we should trade that player, and if we don't, we should keep him? Thanks. I'm glad we had this conversation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    if a team offers a similar deal to Eaton yeah sure, but i wouldnt trade him just to trade him.
    Agreed. I'm not shopping him but if we got an Eaton type package you have to seriously consider. Especially with mallex ready to step in

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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnAdcox View Post
    Just so I'm clear -- the consensus seems to be that if we get an amazing, knock-our-socks-off, holy jeez offer on a player, we should trade that player, and if we don't, we should keep him? Thanks. I'm glad we had this conversation.
    Easy to reach consensus on certain things! Apple pie, motherhood and winning trades by big margins.

    I think the more interesting discussion to be had is what situations do you tolerate an overpay for acquiring a player and what situations do you insist on a great return and what situations are somewhere in between.

    I have tolerance for an overpay where there is a clear positional need, especially when the need is both short-term and long-term. Catcher is the obvious position right now where I would be willing to overpay some to find a solution.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 12-17-2016 at 11:41 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnAdcox View Post
    Just so I'm clear -- the consensus seems to be that if we get an amazing, knock-our-socks-off, holy jeez offer on a player, we should trade that player, and if we don't, we should keep him? Thanks. I'm glad we had this conversation.
    Especially after we had pretty much the same conversation last year about Juiio. We are good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Easy to reach consensus on certain things! Apple pie, motherhood and winning trades by big margins.

    I think the more interesting discussion to be had is what situations do you tolerate an overpay for acquiring a player and what situations do you insist on a great return and what situations are somewhere in between.

    I have tolerance for an overpay where there is a clear positional need, especially when the need is both short-term and long-term. Catcher is the obvious position right now where I would be willing to overpay some to find a solution.
    Sure. That's the thing.

    So, tying the two conversations together, I would do a Teheran straight up for Bregman. That would be an overpay by the Braves based upon what each have already shown.

    Bregman has more risk since he has more projection at this point. BUT, he is at a position of desperate need, he has 6 years of control, he's a somewhat local guy which could figure into team marketing and he has star potential with a floor of at least long term acceptability.

    Now, would I WANT more? Sure. BUT, if the one for one deal was done, I wouldn't complain because the Bregman's upside potential is better than Teheran AND he is at a long term position of need.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Sure. That's the thing.

    So, tying the two conversations together, I would do a Teheran straight up for Bregman. That would be an overpay by the Braves based upon what each have already shown.

    Bregman has more risk since he has more projection at this point. BUT, he is at a position of desperate need, he has 6 years of control, he's a somewhat local guy which could figure into team marketing and he has star potential with a floor of at least long term acceptability.

    Now, would I WANT more? Sure. BUT, if the one for one deal was done, I wouldn't complain because the Bregman's upside potential is better than Teheran AND he is at a long term position of need.
    Teheran for Bregman is not an overpay for the Braves. Bregman may no longer be a rookie but he has 6 years left and still the value of a top 10 prospect in baseball. His surplus value is around 75 million or so. Teheran is a #2 starter making 37.3 million over 4 years. As a low end 3 WAR player Teheran has a surplus value of around 60 million. If you go with a high end of a 4 WAR player then his surplus value is 91 million. His true value is likely somewhere in that range which is what Bregman's is. It's probably a fair trade straight up. Neither team would do it though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Teheran for Bregman is not an overpay for the Braves. Bregman may no longer be a rookie but he has 6 years left and still the value of a top 10 prospect in baseball. His surplus value is around 75 million or so. Teheran is a #2 starter making 37.3 million over 4 years. As a low end 3 WAR player Teheran has a surplus value of around 60 million. If you go with a high end of a 4 WAR player then his surplus value is 91 million. His true value is likely somewhere in that range which is what Bregman's is. It's probably a fair trade straight up. Neither team would do it though.
    Didn't say they would. However, it's the type of trade many would cry about. I wouldn't.

    As far as WAR value, and surplus value, Bregman probably will be a very good player, maybe even great player, but he has yet to show that at the ML level. Teheran HAS shown he can do it at the ML level. I give extra credit to those who have proven their value as opposed to those who project value. In today's climate, I think Teheran is worth more than Bregman straight up but would do the trade because of Bregman's potential and the 3B need by the Braves.

    Would either team do it? Maybe not. But the Braves should if they can. I would also say that Houston, being in the position that they are, shouldn't consider Bregman untouchable since they signed Gurriel (plus about 2-3 other 3B legit prospects in their minors)AND are in a window of having a legit chance to win, whether that is in a trade with the Braves or not. If the Astros could get Quintana and Abreu for a package like Bregman, Reed, Tucker, Whitley and Paulino, they should be all over it, if they are truly serious about winning a WS. The Stros play Gurriel at 3B (and have Moran and Davis as back-up), slot Abreu at 1B and slot Quintana as their #1 or #2. They would have to be a favorite to win the WS.

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    i view both starting pitching and third as areas of need so i wouldnt look at Teheran for Bregman as trading from surplus for a need... i would want to win an exchange involving those two...the stros would have to add some

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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnAdcox View Post
    Just so I'm clear -- the consensus seems to be that if we get an amazing, knock-our-socks-off, holy jeez offer on a player, we should trade that player, and if we don't, we should keep him? Thanks. I'm glad we had this conversation.
    I dunno, seems a bit controversial.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Didn't say they would. However, it's the type of trade many would cry about. I wouldn't.

    As far as WAR value, and surplus value, Bregman probably will be a very good player, maybe even great player, but he has yet to show that at the ML level. Teheran HAS shown he can do it at the ML level. I give extra credit to those who have proven their value as opposed to those who project value. In today's climate, I think Teheran is worth more than Bregman straight up but would do the trade because of Bregman's potential and the 3B need by the Braves.

    Would either team do it? Maybe not. But the Braves should if they can. I would also say that Houston, being in the position that they are, shouldn't consider Bregman untouchable since they signed Gurriel (plus about 2-3 other 3B legit prospects in their minors)AND are in a window of having a legit chance to win, whether that is in a trade with the Braves or not. If the Astros could get Quintana and Abreu for a package like Bregman, Reed, Tucker, Whitley and Paulino, they should be all over it, if they are truly serious about winning a WS. The Stros play Gurriel at 3B (and have Moran and Davis as back-up), slot Abreu at 1B and slot Quintana as their #1 or #2. They would have to be a favorite to win the WS.
    That's the thing though. A year from now Bregman could put up great numbers and then his value would be way higher then Teherans. It's a risk of course which is why they are pretty much equal.

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    No. No. No.

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    Anybody willing to do an Inciarte deal where the return centered on Kyle Lewis?

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Anybody willing to do an Inciarte deal where the return centered on Kyle Lewis?
    Maybe Lewis, Tyler O'Neil and C Tyler Marlette.

    I say that but also wonder why the Braves didn't just draft Lewis when they had the chance. Was it that they really didn't rate him highly OR that his bonus demands didn't align with the other draft plays they had. I suspect the latter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Maybe Lewis, Tyler O'Neil and C Tyler Marlette.

    I say that but also wonder why the Braves didn't just draft Lewis when they had the chance. Was it that they really didn't rate him highly OR that his bonus demands didn't align with the other draft plays they had. I suspect the latter.
    I saw somewhere his medicals scared off a few teams and Chipper didn't love his swing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Anybody willing to do an Inciarte deal where the return centered on Kyle Lewis?

    Not sure. We passed on him for some reason.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Anybody willing to do an Inciarte deal where the return centered on Kyle Lewis?
    a big yes

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Anybody willing to do an Inciarte deal where the return centered on Kyle Lewis?
    I loved Lewis, but now he has a major knee injury on his resume. I wouldn't trade Inciarte for him anymore. Inciarte is the one and only truly valuable piece the Braves can afford to trade away, so if he's traded the return needs to immediately improve a position of need (3B or C).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Keeping in mind what the Chisox got paid for Eaton, I think a deal with the Cubs: Inciarte for Jimenez and Happ is comparable. The White Sox got Giolito, Lopez and Dunning for Eaton.

    The Braves would use Jimenez as the RF of the future (hopefully) and Happ as the LF of the future (hopefully).

    Future long term line up could be:

    2B Albies
    SS Swanson
    LF Happ
    1B Freeman
    RF Jimenez
    3B - ?
    CF - Acuna
    C - ?

    If the Cubs wouldn't do that then I would do a Jimenez, Cease, Candelario for Inciarte trade.

    Future long term line up could be:

    2B Albies
    SS Swanson
    CF Acuna
    1B Freeman
    RF Jimenez
    3B - Candelario
    LF - ?
    C - ?

    Houston is a bit tougher to find a deal but maybe: Inciarte for Tucker, Whitley and Paulino.

    2B Albies
    SS Swanson
    CF Acuna
    1B Freeman
    3B - ?
    RF Tucker
    LF - ?
    C - ?
    I typically don't agree with you, but the more I've thought about it and crunched numbers while making out numerous potential lineups, I like the idea of matching up with the Cubs.

    First off, let me emphasize the fact that I truly love having Ender Inciarte roaming centerfield and honestly wouldn't mind locking him up for 5-6 more years because he brings so much to our club, mainly a very good leadoff hitter (something we haven't really had since Bourn) and an exceptional defender at a premium position. Not to mention his intangibles, passion for the game, and out of this world baseball IQ. Now the main reason I would feel comfortable trading him is the fact we have two guys who should be able fill that void and not have TOO much drop-off. Mallex can step in right away and while Acuna is still a few years away he provides another option in case Mallex isn't the player most of us think he is/will be. We're also in a favorable situation (one that we haven't been in the past) in that we have quite a few CF options in the low minors that provide even more insurance, such as Christian Pache', Anfernee Seymour, Ray-Patrick Didder, and Conner Lien.

    Secondly, I don't feel we would be losing much by replacing Ender with Mallex or Acuna and while neither (I don't think) will ever be the defender Inciarte is, I think both Smith and Acuna might actually be a little better offensively with each profiling as different type of players. Mallex would slide right in to the leadoff slot, should be pretty comparable as far as batting average, OBP, OPS+ and .etc BUT would steal many more bases. Acuna on the other hand is more of a 2/3 type hitter who could be an annual 20/20 player with solid BA/OBP/SLUG/OPS+. Couple the fact that our replacements should be pretty close to what we had in Ender (again other than defensively) with the potential of getting multiple other pieces who could deepen our lineup even more. Couple scenarios I had in mind:

    Trade #1

    Braves trade Ender Inciarte and Jeremy Walker to Chicago Cubs for Ian Happ and Eloy Jimenez- Gives the Cubs a plus defender in CF as well as a potential leadoff hitter. Inciarte wouldn't have to do much offensively other than get on base for their extremely deep lineup. Walker is an interesting piece that gets lost in our deep system full of starters but could eventually be a quality back-end starter for Chicago or at worst a swing man. For the Braves, it gives us two potential middle of the order hitters that can play both corner outfield spots and that is something we lack in our system. Our lineup could look something like:

    1. Mallex Smith- CF
    2. Dansby Swanson- SS
    3. Ian Happ- LF
    4. Freddie Freeman- 1B
    5. Eloy Jimenez- RF
    6. Rio Ruiz/Travis Demeritte- 3B
    7. Catcher
    8. Ozzie Albies- 2B
    9. Pitcher

    *You could easily flip Albies and Smith and think that would eventually happen.


    Trade #2- (Bigger trade)

    Braves trade Ender Inciarte, Arodys Vizcaino, and Joey Wentz for Ian Happ, Eloy Jimenez, Jeimer Candelario and Trevor Clifton.

    Just say we then go sign Jonathan Lucroy then we could look like:

    1. Ozzie Albies- 2B
    2. Dansby Swanson- SS
    3. Ian Happ- 2B
    4. Freddie Freeman- 1B
    5. Jonathan Lucroy- C
    6. Eloy Jimenez- RF
    7. Jeimer Candelario- 3B
    8. Mallex Smith- CF
    9. Pitcher



    That lineup would be extremely dangerous...
    "Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon"

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    Ian and Eloy for Inciarte? Folks are severely overestimating Ender's trade value. One of Happ or Eloy for Inciarte straight up would be nearly even.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    i view both starting pitching and third as areas of need so i wouldnt look at Teheran for Bregman as trading from surplus for a need... i would want to win an exchange involving those two...the stros would have to add some
    Very good point, would almost be counterproductive.
    "Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon"

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