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Thread: Trade Inciarte or No?

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    On BBA's Top 100 Prospects List blueagleace1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Ian and Eloy for Inciarte? Folks are severely overestimating Ender's trade value. One of Happ or Eloy for Inciarte straight up would be nearly even.

    You're exactly right, not sure why I even posted my opinion. Should have just asked you the resident GM and saved my time typing that out.
    "Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I loved Lewis, but now he has a major knee injury on his resume. I wouldn't trade Inciarte for him anymore. Inciarte is the one and only truly valuable piece the Braves can afford to trade away, so if he's traded the return needs to immediately improve a position of need (3B or C).
    But trades where both sides get established major league players hardly ever happen. There just aren't many teams who can afford to give up a 4ish WAR player at one position just to add one at another position.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    If the Braves could pull an Adam Eaton like haul for Inciarte, do you do the deal and what might it look like?

    Eaton has three years at the ML level and posted almost identical seasons in 2015 & 2016 with an OPS of .790 (all time in a very good hitters park). He'll play next year at 28. He's signed for 5 more years (two options) for about $38.5M. He finished 19th for AL MVP in 2016. He played most of 2016 as a RF and finished with a dWAR of 1.8 (his dWAR in CF for 2014 was 1.8 but in 2015 fell to -1.1)

    Inciarte has two plus years at the ML level and posted about a .740 OPS over the last couple of years (one in a good hitters park, the other neutral). He'll play next year at 26. He's entering arbitration as a super two and is under control through 2020. He finished 5 in ROY and just won the GG. Inciarte had a dWAR of 2.6 in 2015 and 1.7 in 2016 playing almost exclusively CF.

    Eaton is older but has one more year of control. He probably is the better offensive player (but league and park effects make it closer) but isn't in the same league as Inciarte defensively. He has cost certainty but isn't necessarily cheaper than Inciarte depending on how the arby process goes. Eaton is in his physical prime at 28 while Inciarte is still two years away and probably projects with a bit more upside.

    All in all, I would have to say the value is pretty even.

    This came to mind when I read a MLBTR headline that the Rockies would want an "Eaton like trade" for Charlie Blackmon who has only 2 years of control left and has spent his career hitting in Denver.

    Given the presence of Mallex, I think the Braves should maximize Ender's return IF they can get anywhere near what the Chisox got for Eaton.

    If we can get an eaton esque package. yeah. Id trade him. Id rather trade markakis though

  5. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by blueagleace1 View Post
    but the more I've thought about it and crunched numbers while making out numerous potential lineups,
    So this is actually how some of you guys spend your free time?

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    Expects Huge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Perfect Cell View Post
    If we can get an eaton esque package. yeah. Id trade him. Id rather trade markakis though
    I agree about Markakis. Unlike some around here, I would like to see an outfield that included both Mallex and Ender.

    Of course Markakis does not have great trade value. But we could trade him for a pitcher on a big contract with little or no surplus value. Markakis for Jordan Zimmermann for example. I could see something like that happening next off-season.

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    I don't see Ender being on the team August 1st. If I had to guess he's flipped in July and replaced with Mallex. This regime doesn't follow the old school buyer or seller narrative. We could be buyers and sellers in July.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    So this is actually how some of you guys spend your free time?
    You act like this is something new.

    It's baseball fans passing the time with baseball (as best they can) until more baseball.

    100 years ago there were fans all over the country who couldn't wait to look at the box scores each day in the newspaper. They kept up with their team and with the competition because it was just possible that the competition would one day be part of their team too or facing their team.

    It's part of sports. If it's not for you, why do you care?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Ian and Eloy for Inciarte? Folks are severely overestimating Ender's trade value. One of Happ or Eloy for Inciarte straight up would be nearly even.
    I started the thread by contrasting Eaton and Inciarte. The conclusion that I came to was that Inciarte isn't quite as valuable as Eaton but it's pretty close.

    Taking that as a baseline and the package the Chisox received in return for Eaton, I think Jimenez and Happ are an appropriate return for Ender in this market. The Chisox/gNats trade set the market - according to MLB's prospects rankings the #3 prospect in baseball, #38 AND a 2016 first rounder coming off a great first season.

    Inciarte for Jimenez and Happ would be - the #21 and #23 prospects in baseball.

    You could argue that #3 & #38 is probably close to equal to #21 & #23 when taken as a package. The difference is the additional first rounder.

    Of course, it takes two to Tango BUT just because the Cubs wouldn't WANT to do it doesn't mean it's not a fair return given the market.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    You act like this is something new.

    It's baseball fans passing the time with baseball (as best they can) until more baseball.

    100 years ago there were fans all over the country who couldn't wait to look at the box scores each day in the newspaper. They kept up with their team and with the competition because it was just possible that the competition would one day be part of their team too or facing their team.

    It's part of sports. If it's not for you, why do you care?
    its a hobby...some people spend a lot of time playing chess or listening to music....different kind of hobbies...a chacun son gout

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    I started the thread by contrasting Eaton and Inciarte. The conclusion that I came to was that Inciarte isn't quite as valuable as Eaton but it's pretty close.

    Taking that as a baseline and the package the Chisox received in return for Eaton, I think Jimenez and Happ are an appropriate return for Ender in this market. The Chisox/gNats trade set the market - according to MLB's prospects rankings the #3 prospect in baseball, #38 AND a 2016 first rounder coming off a great first season.

    Inciarte for Jimenez and Happ would be - the #21 and #23 prospects in baseball.

    You could argue that #3 & #38 is probably close to equal to #21 & #23 when taken as a package. The difference is the additional first rounder.

    Of course, it takes two to Tango BUT just because the Cubs wouldn't WANT to do it doesn't mean it's not a fair return given the market.
    im not sure one or two overpays resets the market...would be very happy if we could get happ and jimenez for ender

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I loved Lewis, but now he has a major knee injury on his resume. I wouldn't trade Inciarte for him anymore. Inciarte is the one and only truly valuable piece the Braves can afford to trade away, so if he's traded the return needs to immediately improve a position of need (3B or C).
    I understand what you are saying and you are probably on the line of the FO thinking BUT I think it's wrong. Having a guy you can stand at 3B or C in 2017 is much less important than having that player there for 2018 and 2019 (and in reality 2022) IMO.

    Trading Inciarte for a guy like Baez who could come in and start day one at 3B would help immediately in 2017 and assuming continued level of play or even progression, would help through 2021. But, it fills just one position while vacating another position (where you hope M Smith is the equivalent backfill). And, you're looking at a guy who becomes a significant part of your payroll obligations at about the time when you can reasonably expect the rebuild to bear fruit. So he might make $1M in 2017, $5M in 2018, $10M in 2019, $15M in 2020 and $20M in 2021 then be a FA.

    OTOH, if you turn Inciarte into two starters, as an example Happ and Jimenez (let's leave the discussion if that would even be possible, assume something close to that return) then Inciarte brings little to no help for 2017, but that's OK because 2017 isn't a realistic year anyway. But say Happ and Jimenez take over the corner OF spots sometime in 2018, then 1. That allows you to move the cost of Kemp and Markakis (if you can) so immediate cost savings 2. Allows you to have two starting OF who would cost you less than Baez would cost you over the time period of 2018 - 2021 combined - H&J combined $1M in 2018, $2M in 2019, $10M in 2020, $20M in 2021 roughly, plus you have BOTH for at least 2 additional years beyond where you would potentially lose Baez.

    So, lets assume the second deal, Inciarte for Happ and Jimenez, that still leaves 3B and C as potential weak spots. BUT, you've saved yourself some money which could be used to improve those spots through FA by signing guys like a Lucroy or a Machado or Arrenado.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    I started the thread by contrasting Eaton and Inciarte. The conclusion that I came to was that Inciarte isn't quite as valuable as Eaton but it's pretty close.

    Taking that as a baseline and the package the Chisox received in return for Eaton, I think Jimenez and Happ are an appropriate return for Ender in this market. The Chisox/gNats trade set the market - according to MLB's prospects rankings the #3 prospect in baseball, #38 AND a 2016 first rounder coming off a great first season.

    Inciarte for Jimenez and Happ would be - the #21 and #23 prospects in baseball.

    You could argue that #3 & #38 is probably close to equal to #21 & #23 when taken as a package. The difference is the additional first rounder.

    Of course, it takes two to Tango BUT just because the Cubs wouldn't WANT to do it doesn't mean it's not a fair return given the market.
    The reason the Eaton trade is even defensible from the Nats perspective is that Eaton is considered significantly better than Ender (as in 2 wins better), and there are many folks who think Giolito's stock has fallen so far that he has possibly fallen outside the Top 50 prospects. Eloy is considered by many to have so much helium he will be the top prospect in baseball by the middle of 2017...the Cubs will not be trading him.

    I would be in favor of the Braves flipping Ender for Happ straight up since he could fill 3b for the next 6+ years starting sometime this season. He is exactly the type of player that Braves should be targeting in a trade for Inciarte.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 12-18-2016 at 01:55 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blueagleace1 View Post
    You're exactly right, not sure why I even posted my opinion. Should have just asked you the resident GM and saved my time typing that out.
    Don't be upset just because someone who hasn't been wrong about a single transaction all offseason tells you that you're overvaluing Inciarte.

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    Expects Huge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    HH, i think you would find quite a range of opinion as to how much weight 2017 should be given relative to subsequent years

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    But trades where both sides get established major league players hardly ever happen. There just aren't many teams who can afford to give up a 4ish WAR player at one position just to add one at another position.
    That's why finding a trade partner for Ender will be so hard. It's not that I agree with it, but the reality of the situation dictates the Braves can't swap MLB parts for prospects right now. The return player doesn't have to be on the team opening day, but he needs to be projected to debut sometime in 2017.

    If they can't swap Inciarte for a 2017 MLB contributor now, then they need to wait to trade him until Mallex is ready to step in. Maybe at the deadline?

  18. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    its a hobby...some people spend a lot of time playing chess or listening to music....different kind of hobbies...a chacun son gout
    This is closer to trainspotting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    This is closer to trainspotting.
    that's your subjective opinion...i think we have heard it a few times already...but feel free to continue expressing

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    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    This is closer to trainspotting.
    Dude, you spend some of your free time on a Braves message board.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Dude, you spend some of your free time on a Braves message board.
    Yeah. But he does it in manly non-geeky style. Which apparently he thinks we should all aim to emulate.

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  23. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    that's your subjective opinion...i think we have heard it a few times already...but feel free to continue expressing
    Think of it this way, you've just met a nice, attractive girl and you're going on a first date. Maybe a casual dinner. Obviously, there's going to be an opportunity to share information on the things that you like. Citing the previous examples, chess might be a hard sell. If you're passionate enough, this shouldn't be a deal breaker. Enjoying music is something that will probably get her attention. You could say you like baseball, and even if she's not a fan, she could understand/appreciate it. Then, try explaining to her about fantasy leagues, Fangraphs, the optimal version of WAR, maintaining Excel spreadsheets on salaries with hypothetical lineups projected out until 2023.

    It's not difficult to envision what sort of reaction this might elicit. At that point, it wouldn't be very subjective!

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