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Thread: Trade Inciarte or No?

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    Trade Inciarte or No?

    If the Braves could pull an Adam Eaton like haul for Inciarte, do you do the deal and what might it look like?

    Eaton has three years at the ML level and posted almost identical seasons in 2015 & 2016 with an OPS of .790 (all time in a very good hitters park). He'll play next year at 28. He's signed for 5 more years (two options) for about $38.5M. He finished 19th for AL MVP in 2016. He played most of 2016 as a RF and finished with a dWAR of 1.8 (his dWAR in CF for 2014 was 1.8 but in 2015 fell to -1.1)

    Inciarte has two plus years at the ML level and posted about a .740 OPS over the last couple of years (one in a good hitters park, the other neutral). He'll play next year at 26. He's entering arbitration as a super two and is under control through 2020. He finished 5 in ROY and just won the GG. Inciarte had a dWAR of 2.6 in 2015 and 1.7 in 2016 playing almost exclusively CF.

    Eaton is older but has one more year of control. He probably is the better offensive player (but league and park effects make it closer) but isn't in the same league as Inciarte defensively. He has cost certainty but isn't necessarily cheaper than Inciarte depending on how the arby process goes. Eaton is in his physical prime at 28 while Inciarte is still two years away and probably projects with a bit more upside.

    All in all, I would have to say the value is pretty even.

    This came to mind when I read a MLBTR headline that the Rockies would want an "Eaton like trade" for Charlie Blackmon who has only 2 years of control left and has spent his career hitting in Denver.

    Given the presence of Mallex, I think the Braves should maximize Ender's return IF they can get anywhere near what the Chisox got for Eaton.

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    If another team offered us a package equivalent to what the gnats gave the White Sox for Eaton, we'd be nuts not to do it.

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    Hard to disagree.

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    By my rough estimate:

    Inciarte expected surplus value for remaining years of contractual control: 7 wins

    Eaton: 10 wins

    The package the gnats gave up: 16 wins

    You can play around with adjustments and discounting for risk and time and so forth. But it ain't changing the basic conclusions. And the presence of Mallex is a minor consideration if another team is willing to overpay the way the gnats were.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 12-15-2016 at 10:06 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    And the presence of Mallex is a minor consideration if another team is willing to overpay the way the gnats were.
    But not if teams are only willing to pay fair market. I think it's a mistake to make Inciarte a cornerstone.
    Last edited by weso1; 12-15-2016 at 10:16 PM. Reason: I done clarified.

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    I think Mallex will be a real good major leaguer. For that reason we need to explore what teams want a young controllable centerfrielder.

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    Adam Eaton is a significantly better player. Inciarte is about a 95-100 wRC+ while Eaton is 115-120. Inciartes defense does close the gap a little bit, but he's not as valuable.

    Having said that; any deal close to what the Nats gave up should entice the Braves to trade him. Mallex is ok so there won't be a big need to find another CF.
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    If we could get close to an Adam Eaton-esque deal, I'd say go for it. Otherwise he'll be just as valuable in trade moving forward for a couple years or so, so there's no rush to deal him.

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    Seems likely that we will be trading at least one of Inciarte, Kemp, Muk and Mallex over the next year. We won't be needing all four, especially with Peterson and Acuna on the horizon.

    But there is no great hurry. I'd be ok with giving Mallex a little more time in AAA.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Seems likely that we will be trading at least one of Inciarte, Kemp, Muk and Mallex over the next year. We won't be needing all four, especially with Peterson and Acuna on the horizon.

    But there is no great hurry. I'd be ok with giving Mallex a little more time in AAA.
    The risk though is that Inciarte and Mallex are both respectively high in value right now.

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    I would only trade Inciarte if the return filled an area of need with a 3+ WAR player for 5+ years starting sometime this year. The areas of biggest need are 3B and C (no team will trade a MLB ready OFer for Inciarte as that would be counter productive). The Braves should be done flipping position players for more prospects (though they should always convert pitchers with 1-2 years of remaining control into prospects).

    Due to the presence of Mallex, Inciarte is the one MLB piece with substantial value the Braves can afford to move in order to fill one of those 2 positions long term.

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    only if the deal is absurd

    there is no reason to trade him or be in a rush to trade him
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    If we get an Eaton-like deal, of course. If not, then no. I love Ender and I want to see him here for the forseeable future, but you have to be smart during a rebuild. I do think Mallex will be a successful big leaguer, but Inciarte is a REALLY good player to have on your team -- especially a young one.
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    We will definitely not get an Eaton like deal for Inciarte. If we did, then yes we'd need to jump all over it.

    I really like Inciarte, but I don't think his value will ever be higher than it is right now, except possibly for in July. He'll still have 3 and 1/2 years left and a team could be in need of CF.

    I think there is a chance we trade him this offseason if it's in a deal that fills a need, but also a chance we flip him in July as one of our top layers to peel off and insert Mallex full time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I would only trade Inciarte if the return filled an area of need with a 3+ WAR player for 5+ years starting sometime this year. The areas of biggest need are 3B and C (no team will trade a MLB ready OFer for Inciarte as that would be counter productive). The Braves should be done flipping position players for more prospects (though they should always convert pitchers with 1-2 years of remaining control into prospects).

    Due to the presence of Mallex, Inciarte is the one MLB piece with substantial value the Braves can afford to move in order to fill one of those 2 positions long term.
    I would still want to win any trade for Ender. Given that I see his expected surplus value at about 7 wins, I would want whatever we get in return to have an expected surplus value of at least 10 wins.

    I also think there is a chance we can extent Ender on terms that would be favorable to the team and increase his value in any future trade. Sorta of how the White Sox were able to increase Eaton's value with a team-friendly contract.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 12-16-2016 at 07:14 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I would still want to win any trade for Ender. Given that I see his expected surplus value at about 7 wins, I would want whatever we get in return to have an expected surplus value of at least 10 wins.

    I also think there is a chance we can extent Ender on terms that would be favorable to the team and increase his value in any future trade. Sorta of how the White Sox were able to increase Eaton's value with a team-friendly contract.
    That's probably the best approach and hope he has a full season that's a slight haircut of his second half last year.
    Warm feelings guy!

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    As a rival and card carring gNats hater. I love the term Eaton like return. It is the Miller return for hitters.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    As a rival and card carring gNats hater. I love the term Eaton like return. It is the Miller return for hitters.
    Not quite. But that still leaves plenty of room for it to be a bad deal.

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    If it was an insane deal, of course nobody is then "untouchable." Having said that, I'm sick of reading "trade Inciarte" comments here all the time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    If it was an insane deal, of course nobody is then "untouchable." Having said that, I'm sick of reading "trade Inciarte" comments here all the time.
    No worse than the "trade Teheran" threads.

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