There will be a secret ballot PM'd to several posters.Originally Posted by Ventura's Stolen Bases
There will be a secret ballot PM'd to several posters.
Forever Fredi
can we have a most interesting poster in the world category
Ventura's Stolen Bases
After my two jokes, I think it's mandatory I vote for Enscheff.
I think I am clearly "poster who occupies the most thinking time of other posters" title. It's like you guys are obsessed with me.
What I mean by that is that is the perception for casual MLB fans because of who he played for and his performances in the playoffs. To me he's still a top tier SS in the history of the game. And that would hold true whether he played in New York or in Tampa.
Sure. Having players that aren't crazy is a good thing. But the Milton Bradley types are pretty rare when compared to the vast majority of personalities in baseball.
yeah he's average
I disagree. I always welcome more knowledge. I just don't dismiss what we have because it might be incomplete like some do around here. Things like WAR and surplus value. They aren't 100%. May not be 90%. But it's what we have. It's what we use. It's how decisions are made in MLB by competent teams. Ignoring that is willfully being ignorant.
Nah. If I'm a GM and have Sale on the block with X surplus value, I don't look for a team to match up with the same amount or a little more. That is useless because it's so theoretical for prospects. Of course I want to try and estimate the value I'm getting back, but that calculation doesn't do me any good. And I doubt a guy like Coppalella lets flawed data drive his decisions.
Don't misunderstand me, I'm not suggesting willful ignorance, I'm saying I need to make a decision that is not data-driven, but data-informed. Data-driven gets me DePodesta results.
But the White Sox did match up that surplus value. They had two options. Get multiple top prospects or get the top prospect. They went with the top prospect. It's also about what fits your team and your plan for the future. For example, just because the Braves have pieces that would fit Archers surplus value doesn't mean a trade will be made if it doesn't match what Tampa is looking for. But if Tampa does make a trade that surplus value will be similar to a theoretical trade from the Braves.
And not using data at all gets you Dave Stewart results.
Who is dismissing? Frankly, the only ones being dismissive are the saber inclined fans.
Natural Immunity Croc
There are plenty of posters on here that dismiss the merit of WAR and the idea of surplus value that's used in mlbers for prospect trades.
Didn't you admit that defensive value is still suspect? Hoe much confidence can you have in surplus value if that's the case?
I think it's silly for anyone to dismiss any analysis that is generated from meticulous studies. If they do then they just don't realize that every business in the world uses as much data as possible to make informed decisions.
Natural Immunity Croc
Defensive value isn't suspect. It's just not perfect, yet. I have plenty of confidence in surplus value because of the numerous case studies and quotes from MLB Gm's that this is the way of the world. Again, each team will value players/prospects differently.Team A will value something differently than Team B which can be different from the public data available. But the idea remains the same. Trades are much more different in todays game than it was 20+ years ago. The financial aspect of trades is huge and players with super team friendly deals are commanding more in return than ever before and this is part of the reason why.
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