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Thread: 2017 TOP 30 PROSPECTS: UPDATE IN PROGRESS

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    2017 TOP 30 PROSPECTS: UPDATE IN PROGRESS

    UPDATING: Acuna no longer a "prospect".


    TRADE DEADLINE EDITION

    1. KYLE WRIGHT (6-4, 200) RHP A neutral scout said Braves' top pick would be MLB ready in 2018, and his age and collegiate experience allow him to realistically be put up this high on the list. Starting low, in GCL, but moved up two levels before year's end. Ignore his record (3-4, 3.40), and weigh his peripherals. Still filling out and gaining speed; strong July indicating his turnaround could be taking place.

    2. KOLBY ALLARD (6-2, 175) LHP His arm is as much an object of wonder but his back was concern after needing a second procedure. But that's old news. He dominated what live hitting he faced in 2015 and worked up to 90 pitches most of his late-season outings. The Braves are done nursemaiding him; he won eight of his last nine decisions in 2016 (five straight at Rome) and was consistently allowed to throw 90 or more pitches. He and Soroka were the two youngest pitchers in the SL in 2017.

    3. TOUKI TOUSSANT (6-3, 185) RHP For his 19th birthday, he was dealt to the Braves. His skills have been in direct contrast to his results, as in 2016: 9.19 ERA in April, 4.61 in May, 1.06 in June. In 2017, that trend continued as he was promoted despite a 5.16 ERA and posoted a sweet 3.18 ERA in Mississippi. Toussaint quite possibly has the best fastball-breaking ball combination in the system. His curveball is of the knee-buckling variety, a virtually unhittable secondary offering that's been equally difficult for catchers to corral. A tease of a possible move: he was called on to throw an inning of relief during the 2016 pennant race and struck out three straight batters.

    4. MIKE SOROKA (6-4, 195) RHP The youngest starter in the Southern League in 2017 was also its biggest first-half winner (8-3). His age did not deter the Braves from calling him up early in the season, but his long-term health issues will be a concern until we see him in September. In 2016 he won seven straight, including his last six starts. Threw over 100 pro innings before allowing a homer. Pitching far beyond his years, but his double stint on the DL this year is a red flag.

    5. IAN ANDERSON (6-3, 170) RHP After seeing so many quirky deliveries (i.e., Alec Wood and Gant), it's almost reassuring that Anderson's textbook style is part of his allure. Tall and projectable with the ability to add strength, Anderson throws in the 91-95 mph range, is generally around the strike zone and attacks hitters. His limited debut reflected that with 36 strikeouts, 33 hits allowed and 12 walks in 40 innings. He has was shut down for 2017 for a time after only 65 innings (he finished with 83 innings).

    6. AUSTIN RILEY (6-2, 230) 3B. The biggest bat drafted in 2015, an 0-for-20 start was quickly left behind; for the rest of 2015, he hit .335 with 12 homers. A gun for an arm made him a pitching candidate for some teams. But Riley the rarest commodity in the system; a power bat. Struck out way too much early in 2016 but began finding his home run swing in July and hit nine of 'em in August! The one constant on a jekyll-and-hyde Florida team, he cut down on his strikeouts but with a loss of his gap power, but found his power stroke in Mississippi to finish the year with 20 homers for the second straight year.

    7. MAX FRIED (6-4, 185) LHP It took some time for the lights to come on, but overmatched hitters during the 2017 Arizona Fall League season. A slow start was left behind: 6.23 ERA last May, 4-1, 1.29 in June. Had a brief bout with a dead arm in August but struck out 10 in both of his final two outings. His inconsistent 2017 was directly related to a blister problem, which surfaced again this year. In fact, knowing that it is always on his mind makes them a major concerns and keeps him out of the top five.

    8. WILLIAM CONTRERAS (6-0, 180) C Finally, a top catching prospect has emerged. Still only 20 going into the 2018 season, Contreras is rated by many as the best catching prospect in the system. Breaking in at age 17, he still played in only 45 games in 2017, 35 behind the plate. But his bat (.290) led to his being used a bit as a DH as well for Danville. He must have a full season behind the plate to be properly valued.

    9. BRYSE WILSON (6-1, 225) RHP. Every bit the equal of the more heralded Wentz at Rome, was named the league's top pitcher (10-7, 2.50), allowing only 105 hits in 137 innings. Still enjoying his teens (until December) Wilson, the 4th-round pick and fourth millionaire from the 2016 draft, owned a stunning 2.11 ERA after 23 professional starts. While No. 1 picks Anderson and Wright were having their innings curtailed, Wilson owned a rare nine-inning shutout from July. His main claim to fame is his fastball, which he able to move and control its velocity. He's already polishing his secondary pitches in the AFL.

    10. CRISTIAN PACHE (6-2, 185) OF Each move has amped up the excitement about this outfielder, who received a $1.4 million signing bonus. Much has been made about the face had over 700 pro at-bats before he homered, but after debuting in 2016 with a .283 average in the GCL (bypassing the DSL), he moved to Danville and whacked the ball at a .343 clip his final 17 games to finish with a .333 average at his second stop. Stolen 11 bases and has an impressive nine outfield assists from CF in his debut season. He has begun polishing his strike recognition and speed in 2017, and found his power stroke in 2018. The sky is his limit.

    11. DREW WATERS (6-2, 185) Has handled everything the Braves have thrown at him. The onetime Georgia Class 7A Player of the Year in Georgia (Etowah), his plans to go to Georgia were trumped by the Braves making him their second round pick with $1.5 million bonus. For years a switch-hitter, his speed and throwing arm are among the elite. His instincts are perfect for center field, and had a huge day the first time he batted leadoff as a pro. Only spent 14 games in the GCL (.347) and held his own at Danville even though his strikeout totals spiked. Certainty for Rome Opening Day 2018.

    12. LUIZ GOHARA (6-3, 240) LHP. With his MLB success, he seemed close to a sure thing a year ago. But deeply personal issues and a deep dish (yes, cheap shot) has derailed his express train to success. Gohara received $800,000, as a 16-year-old in 2012, but struggled following his debut, particularly with his conditioning, but after improving his work ethic and losing weight, he had a big 2016 season and excelled in full-season ball. The Braves liked what they saw and acquired him from the Mariners. Still just 21 years old, Gohara's pure stuff is plenty good, leading to his major league debut last September. It was hoped his maturity matched his stuff, and was unable to stay in shape.

    13. JOEY WENTZ (6-5, 210) LHP. Start off with his 0.00 ERA his senior high of high school. A huge get with the 40th pick, a brief bout with a "dead arm" scared enough scouts to drop him from the top 10-15 picks. Similar troubles have slowed his progress in 2018, and are an ongoing concern. A throwing program nursed his arm back to health the first time elevating his fastball to 90-95 mph last spring and was also unscored upon over his first four pro appearances (12 innings), not giving up a run until he was promoted to Danville. He was still a force at Rome in '17, showing a knack for holding runners close on top of his strikeout-per-inning velocity. Not facing the innings restriction of Anderson, he worked over 130 innings with a sterling 2.60 ERA, but arm ailment and bad weather has limited his activity to 62 innings so far.

    14. ALEX JACKSON (6-2, 215) C-OF. Upside improved considerably with his move back to catcher, which he'd previously played as a teen, and has been pushed all the way to AAA this season. Was Seattle's No.1 pick in 2014 (6th overall), cashing a check for a cool $4.2 million. John Hart called him the best prep power prospect coming out of that draft, but did not deliver on that promise unitl his half-season with the Fire Frogs. Struck out a ton with the Mariners, but was young for his league and was still only 21 in 2017. Jackson enjoyed a reversal in 2017 with 19 homers. Defensively, his 12 errors and 21 percent caught stealing were plenty acceptable to the Braves, and his tools have earned him a move to AAA.

    16. DREW LUGBAUER (6-3, 220) C-3B The breakout star from the 2017 draft, this Michigan Wolverine seems like a steal in the 11th round after hitting five homers in his first nine professional games for Danville and had 10 in 29 games when promoted. He finished with 13 in his short-season and had a healthy .865 OPS. Started 23 games at first, 14 behind the plate and 13 at third. A lefty hitter, he's still only 21, so his spiking strikeout totals in '18 are not that serious a concern.

    17. KYLE MULLER (6-6, 225) LHP A beast who struck out a national high school record 24 straight batters over two starts and once recorded 36 consecutive outs on strikeouts, he was held behind his fellow 2016 prep draftees. While he'd be a legitimate prospect as a first baseman/outfielder with well-above-average righthanded power (he hits righthanded but throws lefthanded), the choice to allow him to pitch has worked just fine: his debut line was 1-0, 0.65 with 38 strikeouts, 12 walks in 28 innings in 2016. But in Danville, the long ball was a problem and his ERA soared to 4.15 in 48 innings. His stint at Rome lasted all of six games (3-0) and he's kept going strong when weather has allowed him to pitch in Florida.


    17. DUSTIN PETERSON (6-2, 180) INF The breakout hitting prospect the first half of 2016, might have already reached the majors if not for injuries. Peterson was leading the Carolina League in hitting last year when the Carolina bus crash put him on the DL, then had hand surgery after hamate bone injury this spring. Driving in over 40 runs the first half of 2016, became the team's biggest offensive threat after a .337 June last season. Followed up with strong AFL season. Braves figure this was a season of rehab and expect him to break out in 2018.

    18. LUCAS HERBERT (6-1, 195) C Considered the most polished defensive catcher in the '15 draft, high school or college, Herbert began his pro career with a home run and his first full season bypassed the rookie leagues. If his huge June (.410) is legit, he could be on the doorstep of the majors within three seasons. Injured (menescus) in just his third pro game, wiped out 2015. Pushed to full-season Rome at age 19, but spent more time on the DL than anyone would have wanted. Repeating Rome, he began throwing out base stealers at a 40 percent clip in midseason -- he was becoming the complete player.

    19. FREDDY TARNOK (6-3, 185) RHP Another young pitcher who raised eyebrows with his selection (80th overall). Held back due his age (19 in November) and worked only 14 innings in eight starts (10 strikeouts, three walks). One scouting report had him hitting 98 as a prep senior with an effective curve. Needs innings, but after being lights out as a reliever early in 2018, he has struggled every time out as a starter.

    20. GREYSON JENISTA (6-4, 220) OF Braves grabbed a first-round talent in the second round with college slugger Jenista, who hit three homers in his first 10 pro games with Danville -- earning him a quick promotion to Rome, where he hit .300 in his first month. A lefty hitter, his special bonus is his eye: in his first 26 pro games, he's walked 10 times against 17 strikeouts (and 26 hits). He also has a good enough arm to project as a right fielder, but he must watch his weight (estimated a closer to 220-plus).

    21. RAY-PATRICK DIDDER (6-1, 170) OF Actually took a backward step on paper, but his potential is still the subject of much buzz. Strikeouts soared while after plunged in 2017; it was thought he was trying too hard to hit for power. Hit by a pitch 21 times in '17 after an alarming 39 the year before.

    22. TRAVIS DEMERITTE (6-0, 180) 2B Another seeming steal, acquired for a pair of reclamation projects. If the Georgia native can somehow find away to cut down on his prolific strikeout totals (175 in '16, 134 last year), the sky is the limit for him. As is, he has shown power traits that infielder can match in the system. At age 21, Demeritte will be given looks all over the field. Reports are he is so happy to be in Braves system, he'll play anywhere they ask. Did OK in AFL as replacement for Albies. Dropoff to 15 homers (from 25) could signal a return to AA initially.

    23. TUCKER DAVIDSON (6-2, 215) LHP A lefty with a devistating changeup, Davidson has became the fast-rising below-the-radar guy in the farm system. Only a 19th round pick in 2016, he showed a knack for both starting and relief in his first full pro season. Skipping over A+ is a very real possibility, even with the logjam in the system, but if he starts at Florida, expect him to move quickly.

    24. CJ ALEXANDER (6-5, 215) 3B Forget the 20th round that the Braves stole him in this June. He was projected by many as a 4th-5th round talent and was committed to Central Florida when plucked out of his JuCo powerhouse. Braves were in the right place at the right time, as he was about to turn 22 and knew it was time to begin his career. So the Braves got him for a reported $125 K and got one of the best hitters in the draft, period. As befit his draft placement, he began in the GCL, but left there after only nine games with a .412 average. He has similarly overmatched Appy League pitchers with, at this writing, a .379 average. He needs further promotion.

    25. CORBIN CLOUSE (6-0, 230) LHP The top closer in the minors -- even though the Braves have been reluctant to use him in that role -- the lefty has a 2.03 combined ERA a in his three pro seasons. He has begun saving games for Mississippi of late, but also has a 5-2 record with a 2.00 ERA. He is the system's Minor League Pitcher of the Month for July with a 3-1 record, a save and an 0.77 ERA over nine appearances. Was a lowly 27th-round pick in 2016 from tiny Davenport College.

    26. PATRICK WEIGEL (6-6, 240) The big college (Houston) righty was on the MLB doorstep when Tommy John surgery detailed him. Expected back late this season, he should be good to go in 2019. He started throwing from a mound in June, 369 days after his surgery.

    27. JEFREY RAMOS (6-1, 185) Holding his own in Rome at age 19. Righty hitting outfielder is enjoy his best month in his first full season with four homers and 16 RBIs in 29 games. He has been a clutch RBI guy, but recently three home runs in a week's span. Arm will limit him to left field.

    28. RILEY DELGADO (5-10, 175) Was surprised the Braves were so quick to lavish praise on the SAL all-star shortstop, who signed in 2017 for a paltry $1,000 as a college senior (MTSU). Serviceable defense, and has hit a combined .322 in Rome and Florida as an ideal No. 2 hitter. Only 35 strikeouts in 91 games.

    29. RICARDO SANCHEZ (5-11, 170) LHP His 11-strikeout, one-hit showing as a 20-year-old reminds us of his upside. The Angels' No. 3 prospect before his trade, his international experience in his native Venezuela rated as one of the top international pitching prospects when signed in July of 2013. He had an excellent 2.82 ERA over the final three months for the 2016 champion R-Braves, and his biggest needs, as is the case for most pitchers is age, are polishing his secondary pitches. Has had to overcome shoulder ailment.

    30. TYLER NESLONY (6-1, 190) OF Signed for a bag of baseball as a college senior, his growing reputation as a dangerous hitter grew this winter after hitting nine homers in just 32 games in winter ball down under. A power surge combined with his low strikeout totals meant fast track him if he had maintained it. Average fell off over 100 points after promotion to Mississippi, so repeated AA in '18 only to see average plummet, power drop and strikeouts rise.

    HONORABLE MENTION: Braulio Vasquez, AJ Graffanino, John Curtis, Huascar Ynoa, Ramon Osuna, Raysheandall Michel, Michael Mader, Leudys Baez, Ricardo Rodriguez, Brad Roney (DL), Kyle Kinman (DL), Isranel Wilson.
    Last edited by rico43; 07-31-2018 at 06:31 PM. Reason: Adds to HM

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    I would put Soroka somewhere around #5.

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    Did Ray-Patrick Didder shoot your dog or something to not merit an honorable mention? He great outplayed Baez on the same squad last year and I don't really think Rojas, Jr., can be counted as a prospect at this age.

    And I realize that you love Braulio Vazquez (you've been talking him up since his fast start in the DSL), but 17 errors in 28 games is a monster-sized red flag. How he is a better prospect than Camargo at this stage is beyond me.

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    Mallex?

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    Director of Minor League Reports rico43's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    Did Ray-Patrick Didder shoot your dog or something to not merit an honorable mention? He great outplayed Baez on the same squad last year and I don't really think Rojas, Jr., can be counted as a prospect at this age.

    And I realize that you love Braulio Vazquez (you've been talking him up since his fast start in the DSL), but 17 errors in 28 games is a monster-sized red flag. How he is a better prospect than Camargo at this stage is beyond me.
    Didder was an oversight; his was a tremendous 2016 season. Age the big deal for Vazquez vs Camargo. Braves love Camargo's arm and defense; if he could hit he would probably be in the big leagues with someone already.

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    Director of Minor League Reports rico43's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    Mallex?
    Mallex no longer a rookie. Cutoff is 130 at-bats; If not for injury, he would have had 300 at-bats last year.

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    Woah. Weigel at 24?

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    My disagreements with the list are....

    Newcomb should be above Peterson. Newcomb has a much much higher ceiling and they are at the same level. I don't consider Peterson much if any safer a prospect than Newcomb either. Newcomb has a fallback option of being a closer which gives him a decent floor.


    I think Soroka should be higher, at the least above Wentz. I know IP isn't the best indicator of future success but his amount was unheard of at low A. I think that's especially impressive given he came from a cold weather area where they don't to play as often. I like Wentz but I can't see a justifiable reason to our him ahead of Siroka or Toussaint.


    Alex Jackson is way too high. He doesn't have great scouting reports, stats, or a good attitude. I can't see a reason to put him ahead of guys like Ruiz and Sims who are on the cusp of the majors.



    Herbert is too high. Shown next to nothing with the bat so far and has spent a lot of time on the DL. Also think Weigel is too low. I was late on that bandwagon but I think his stock skyrocketed after his promotion to AA.
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    I appreciate the work Rico.

    My list would be:

    1. Albies
    2. Allard
    3. Newcomb
    4. Acuna
    5. Fried
    6. Soroka
    7. Touissant
    8. Maitan
    9. Anderson
    10. Weigel
    11. Riley
    12. Wentz
    13. Sims
    14. Demeritte
    15. Peterson
    16. Sanchez
    17. Muller
    18. Minter
    19. Cruz
    20. Pache
    21. Ruiz
    22. Harrington
    23. A Jackson
    24. Scivicque
    25. L Jackson
    26. Didder
    27. Janas
    28. Bryse Wilson
    29. Davidson
    30. Cumberland

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    I'd move Newcomb up to the top 5, lower D. Pete just a bit and raise Soroka to the top 10. Aside from that, super solid list IMO!

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    Good job Rico as always. Like others, Soroka would need to be top 10 at the very least.

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    My two big 'beefs' with the list are Newcomb/Weigel.

    So much of Newcombs repertoire statistical profile scream TOR ace. Everyone knows the issue and he needs to correct it but if he can find a way to lower those walk totals you have one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

    I wouldn't necessarily say that Weigel is top 10 but I think hes done enough to at least be top 15.

    Otherwise, many have reported that the Braves 5-20 are all good prospects and are interchangeable in the rankings.

    Thanks for the list Rico.
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    Good list, but I wouldn't have Jackson even top 20. Also, Touki already made the midseason top 100 list by BA and it's pretty much a guarantee he'll make everyone's preseason top 100 list. I'm not sure if you're heavily weighting your list on risk (or lack thereof), but Touki I would think has to be in everyone's top 10.

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    I don't know enough about some of these guys to make a top 30, but my top 20 looks like this.

    1. Albies
    2. Allard
    3. Newcombe
    4. Fried
    5. Acuna
    6. Touki
    7. Soroka
    8. Maitan
    9. Anderson
    10. Wentz
    11. Sims
    12. Riley
    13. Peterson
    14. Weigel
    15. Demeritte
    16. Ruiz
    17. Minter
    18. Cruz
    19. Pache
    20. Herbert

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    Defending my Newcomb and Weigel placements:

    Newcomb, to me, hasn't necessarily shown that he "gets it." Tools and left-handedness should make him a rock solid choice to make the staff, but he only periodically shown a skill level to beat back Double-A hitters. He has to show me more.

    As for Weigel, his is the kind of stuff that often gets turned around in Double-A. All I need to see is his success carrying over to this level and I will boost him quickly.

    I have no defense for Soroka. Just a gut feeling. Pitching, as we have seen, can be so damn fickle as to be almost random occurrence of failure.

    It's a fun problem to debate. So many young, gifted arms in one place.
    Last edited by rico43; 01-02-2017 at 09:06 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rico43 View Post
    Defending my Newcomb and Weigel placements:

    Newcomb, to me, hasn't necessarily shown that he "gets it." Tools and left-handedness should make him a rock solid choice to make the staff, but he only periodically shown a skill level to beat back Double-A hitters. He has to show me more.

    As for Weigel, his is the kind of stuff that often gets turned around in Double-A. All I need to see is his success carrying over to this level and I will boost him quickly.

    I have no defense for Soroka. Just a gut feeling. Pitching, as we have seen, can be so damn fickle as to be almost random occurrence of failure.

    It's a fun problem to debate. So many young, gifted arm in one place.
    Newcomb struck out almost 10 per 9 IP in AA and allowed a BA of .219 while allowing just 4 HR. He beat back AA hitters without much problem.

    And Weigel throws in the mid-high 90s with a potentially plus slider. Not sure why you think his stuff isn't that great.

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    As many good young arms we have seen have a good year at Rome and never amount to much I can understand a conservative placement of Soroka since he doesn't have elite stuff.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    As many good young arms we have seen have a good year at Rome and never amount to much I can understand a conservative placement of Soroka since he doesn't have elite stuff.
    he has a pretty good pedigree...first round pick as a 17 year old

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    Braves1976 (03-08-2017)

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    I agree with some on the placement being too high and some too low, but that's all opinion.

    I wouldn't have any catchers in my top 30 right now. There are too many question marks with them all right now, but I know most platforms rate catchers high.

    I'd have Bryse Wilson in my top 25. Bryse doesn't get talked about a lot with Anderson, Wentz, and Muller but he should follow right along with them.

    I would have Dirks and Clouse in there over Janas. Janas seems like a guy who will get lost in the shuffle and traded.

    You're not alone on Harrington. He could have an A.J. Minter rise up the ranks this season. With Minter, Lindgren, Harrington, Clouse, and even Chase Johnson-Mullins we shouldn't have to overpay for a lefty reliever for a while. I can see us drafting a few more this year as well. It's a smart move. if you look at team needs everyone needs a lefty reliever. I still don't know why the Yankees were dumb enough to think Lindgren would slip through.

    Another guy nobody talks about who could crack a top 30 is Dylan Moore. He's a utility guy and old for his level, but he has a good all around game. I think he could impress at MS if he's primarily playing SS next year and rise up some rankings.

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    rico43 (01-04-2017)

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    he has a pretty good pedigree...first round pick as a 17 year old
    He's also a Canadian who doesn't have a lot of miles on his arm. He's not flashy, but steady. He's the one I see making the majors first out of arms in A ball.

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