Updating my projections on the eve of the start of the regular season. Since that post we've lost Sean Rodriguez to injury, traded away Smith and Simmons, and cut Paco Rodriguez. We have signed Phillips and Suzuki. Net that takes us down a couple wins. The Smith/Simmons/Gohara trade might pan out in the long run but it will certainly cost us this year.
So this team looks more like a 78 win team to me now than the 80 wins I had it pegged for back in January. And the optimist in me thinks it is entirely possible we get more upside surprises than downside surprises. So 83 wins if things break our way. Probably not quite enough to really be in the wild card even under an optimistic scenario.
Horsehide Harry (04-02-2017)
We are at the all-star break and the Braves are on pace to win 78 games.
My prediction was 78 games.
My individual predictions:
Freeman hits 40+ HRs. (perfect if not for injury)
Folty establishes himself as the Ace of the staff by August. (looking good)
Swanson isn't the star many think he is, more of a solid 2-3 win guy. (seems about right)
Albies and Mallex are the only young position prospects that prove they belong in an MLB lineup. (no proof with Albies yet, but Mallex has posted 1.1 bWAR this year so far)
The rest, Ruiz, Peterson, and the rest, show they are only AAAA guys, (dead on)
yet folks continue to insist they need to be "given a chance to see what they can do". (this was obvious)
Using bWAR + statcorner pitch framing I have the Braves at 40 wins based on that.
Pythag w/l (based on actual runs scored and allowed) has the Braves at 39 wins.
Braves have actually won 42 games and are 12-11 in 1-run games.
So maybe a hair lucky if you want to call it that but nothing that isn't within expectations of what can happen in a MLB season. They have played to what a lot on here saw them as at the start of the year. A mid to high 70's win team.
Super (07-10-2017)