Official Prediction Thread: 2017 MLB Season (Braves Only)
Barring any unforeseen moves I think now we are at a good point in the offseason to start making some predictions for the 2017 season. Here are my rosy ones!
1) Braves will win 85 games - I do not believe that the offense from August on was a complete aberration. Clearly we won't be one of the top 3 offense in baseball but for those who look at the whole 2016 season as a baseline of where we could be moving forward in 2017 I have a few names/situations to consider - Iciarte injury/Aybar/Olivera /AJ/Castro. All of these players/situations contributed to an absolutely DEPLORABLE first half offense. The infusion of Kemp/Swanson and a healthy Inciarte clearly changes what the calculus is for projecting the future teams offensive production. I'd like to see Markakis traded and give Mallex the everyday job but I'm just not sure what the organization wants to do with the intangible qualities that they believe Neck brings to the club. Let's not sleep on Adonis who was a different player after getting called back up. Snitker was his manager when he excelled in Gwinnett a couple of years ago so maybe there is a comfort factor that gives Adonis more confidence to succeed. We don't need him to be great but in that 6th/7th spot his power could be useful. The weakness of the team last year after August was clearly the starting pitching. Just the idea of getting more innings out of the rotation is going to be help set a lot of things in place with what should be a really really good bullpen.
2) Jamie Garcia will post a 3.5 FIP - He's done this before and is pitching for a contract. I like the ingredients for a bounce back season. Also a potential flip candidate come July.
3) Albies will make his season debut in June and hit 300 for the rest of the season.
4) Jim Johnson will be traded for a top 50 prospect in July - He seems to thrive pitching in Atlanta and I expect him to get a lot of opportunities to get the meaningless save statistic which will hopefully increase his market value.
I could spitball a few more but maybe this can get people talking (mostly about how silly my first prediction is).
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Always and Forever.
90 games division or bust.
Atlanta Braves - Arsenal - Federer -
"So I'll make you a deal, let me post again and I'll drop this whole narrative about you being intolerant and so on."
- A PM sent from Tomahawking4life to me 11/21/'16
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I think their baseline is that of an 80 win team. But the optimist in me is having Lady Luck give them an extra 5 wins. That will allow them to be in the Wild Card race to the very end.
In terms of individual players I'm going to predict the following hitters to hit better than their Fangraph OPS projections:
Freeman, Kemp, Markakis, Inciarte, Albies, Mallex and Recker
I predict the following will under-perform their OPS projections:
Garcia, Rodriguez, Swanson, Flowers and Peterson
With pitchers I expect the following to out-perform their xFIP projections:
Teheran, Dickey, Folty, Wisler, Viz, Cabrera, Simmons, Krol, Paco Rodriguez, Winkler
The following will under-perform:
Colon, Garcia, Jim Johnson
As the above indicates most of the "upside surprises" that will allow an 80 win team to win 85 games will come from the pitching.
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I'm saying 80 also. By mid season we will have a better idea of our prospects and what our needs will be for a possible division or wild card run. We could make a big trade if we are still in it by the end of July.
I don't see anyway JJ is traded for much. May be a particular farm systems top 50 prospect, but certainly not a top 50 overall prospect.
As far as overall wins, that will depend on how healthy we are and if we trade off any important pieces at the deadline. I think the team as constructed is a 80ish win team. But if Garcia, Colon, Dickey, Kemp, or Markakis are having good seasons and we're hovering around .500 or below, we won't hesitate to move any of those guys for the best package. I'm gonna say we win 79 games in 2017.
Last edited by Carp; 01-02-2017 at 12:46 PM.
Do you expect that Swanson will regress to those levels for his career or just growing pains in his first full season?
Originally Posted by nsacpi
78 wins if they make no more acquisitions.
+1 win if they add Wieters.
+1 win if they add a RHed 4th OFer like Jennings, and he is utilized properly.
+1 win if they add a LHed guy at 3b like Drew, +2 wins if they add Valbuena.
Some individual predictions:
Freeman hits 40+ HRs.
Folty establishes himself as the Ace of the staff by August.
Swanson isn't the star many think he is, more of a solid 2-3 win guy.
Albies and Mallex are the only young position prospects that prove they belong in an MLB lineup. The rest, Ruiz, Peterson, and the rest, show they are only AAAA guys, yet folks continue to insist they need to be "given a chance to see what they can do".
Consistent with your previous thoughts on the team.
Originally Posted by Enscheff
Is Folty the ace more of what because he is doing or what the rest of the staff are doing?
As it stands, we're a 70- to 75-win team, but I think we will make some moves that will increase that to around 80 wins. Hopefully we'll make even more moves than I expect and give ourselves a chance at a Wild Card spot. This IS the Magical 2017 season, after all. If that doesn't happen, I think we're still on pace for 2019 to be the year the Mukaki Rebuild finally comes together. Regardless, I'm going to do my best to see a game in person this year.
He's the Ace because he finally conquers the mental aspect of the game and dominates more often than the flashes he shows now.
Originally Posted by thethe
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Pure gut reaction would put the over/under this year at 75 wins.
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Given his age 2017 is not likely to be his career best season.
Originally Posted by thethe
Teheran - 3.58 ERA - TJ surgery after 10 starts.
Garcia - 2.90 era 30 starts 200 IP
Folty - 3.39 era. 30 starts 190 IP
Dickey - 3.90 ETA- 32 starts 199 IP
Colon - 4.15 era - 25 starts - replaced in the rotation in August.
Not going to predict the pen, I could see it being great or imploding badly. I don't trust JJ, Cabrera, or Vizcaino. Vizcaino I think gets another TJ surgery.
Flowers - .250/.310/.400
Freeman - .315/.420/.606
Albies - .240/.315/.350
Swanson - .280/.350/.425
Garcia - .260/.290/.380
Peterson - .265/.345/.375
Rodriguez - .261/.331/.460
Ruiz - .255/.325/.405
Inciarte - .312/.360/.400
Markakis - .278/.355/.399
Kemp - .280/.333/.525
Mallex - .260/.320/.395
Braves win 84 games.
Arizona Fall Leaguer
1-Kemp bats 275 with 35+ HRS.
2-We will have no trades on trade day. Many before.
3-Colon will lead the team in IP.
4-The word yuge will be mentioned over a 170 Times on Game Day threads
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the pen is unproven but has a lot of upside...it is one of the areas where we are most likely to outperform relative to the various projection systems
Arizona Fall Leaguer
More than 1 per Game Day thread. Yuge bold prediction.
Originally Posted by Coach_Chris
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I think #4 on your list is the only one that's somewhat silly, I don't see any way a team is going to give up a top 50 prospect for Johnson no matter how well he pitches. I think we wind up in the 75-80 win range, but 85 could be possible if everything bounced right (including #2 and #3 on your list).
Originally Posted by thethe
Spring Training Invitee
You made me just shake my head. Pretty bullish overall, but predicting TJ for JT? Albies hitting that poorly? Sure hope I see neither. Your starter predictions otherwise are pretty optimistic, to say the least. I have to know, are you predictions pretty much serious, or are you just throwing stuff against the wall to see if it sticks?
Originally Posted by cajunrevenge
I could write a lot about what went into each but I am stuck on mobile. Short version.
Tehran and Vizcaino were high risk for TJ surgery in a study on TJ rIsk I looked at. It was actually about last year but the injury is very much a wear and tear injury so I only see the chances going up this year. I think it's almost an inevitability for all pitchers. I think that injury and a few too many blown saves is going to Doom our playoff chances but we should be in it till the end with the second wild card.
With Garcia I am banking on free agent year magic and a strong infield defense working well with his GB%. I think Dickey is still a quality pitcher but he shouldnt in the AL. Colon is a guy I even suggested we sign, people put too much stock I'm his age and weight. I care about the results and he has put up good results that aren't Jorge Sosa type flukes. I think he gets replaced by one of our prospects forcing the Braves hand. Folty I think is ready to establish himself as a top young starter. Little worried about his injury history so I figure he misses a few starts.
For the position players, not a big believer in Flowers or Adonis. Would love to be wrong but they are a little old to be figuring it out now. I have been predicting a big peak for Freeman for the last few years and he is at the prime age to have a career year. For Albies don't take that as saying he will be a busy. Not everyone is a stud with the bat right away. I don't think will start the year with Atlanta so this is assuming half a season or less of playing time. I think there is more to why they moved him back to AAA than what they told us. If he stayed at AAA and didn't hit his stock would be a good but lower right now. With Peterson/Ruiz I expect them to be used to their platoon advantage. I am buying in Rodriguez, I don't think he hits for quite that much power but I think we got a steal here.
I think Markakis will be mostly the same, I take his second half as a good sign but I can't quite predict a .400 or better slugging% when he hasn't done that in a long time. With Ender I think he will have a breakout year, he has improved every year in the majors so far. With Kemp I think he will get into shape this off-season but I have a hard time predicting him to hit more than .280. I think most of that improvement will come in his defense and power. With Mallex it's all about that OBP. .320 isn't that bad for someone with his speed. I expect to see it improve over time.
All projections are just throwing **** on the wall and seeing what sticks. The only thing that is predictable in baseball is that baseball is unpredictable. Production while healthy might be somewhat predictable but injuries throws everything out of whack. Not just injuries but playing hurt.
Probably can only name half of the would-be opening day roster.