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    Official Prediction Thread: 2017 MLB Season (Braves Only)

    Barring any unforeseen moves I think now we are at a good point in the offseason to start making some predictions for the 2017 season. Here are my rosy ones!

    1) Braves will win 85 games - I do not believe that the offense from August on was a complete aberration. Clearly we won't be one of the top 3 offense in baseball but for those who look at the whole 2016 season as a baseline of where we could be moving forward in 2017 I have a few names/situations to consider - Iciarte injury/Aybar/Olivera /AJ/Castro. All of these players/situations contributed to an absolutely DEPLORABLE first half offense. The infusion of Kemp/Swanson and a healthy Inciarte clearly changes what the calculus is for projecting the future teams offensive production. I'd like to see Markakis traded and give Mallex the everyday job but I'm just not sure what the organization wants to do with the intangible qualities that they believe Neck brings to the club. Let's not sleep on Adonis who was a different player after getting called back up. Snitker was his manager when he excelled in Gwinnett a couple of years ago so maybe there is a comfort factor that gives Adonis more confidence to succeed. We don't need him to be great but in that 6th/7th spot his power could be useful. The weakness of the team last year after August was clearly the starting pitching. Just the idea of getting more innings out of the rotation is going to be help set a lot of things in place with what should be a really really good bullpen.

    2) Jamie Garcia will post a 3.5 FIP - He's done this before and is pitching for a contract. I like the ingredients for a bounce back season. Also a potential flip candidate come July.

    3) Albies will make his season debut in June and hit 300 for the rest of the season.

    4) Jim Johnson will be traded for a top 50 prospect in July - He seems to thrive pitching in Atlanta and I expect him to get a lot of opportunities to get the meaningless save statistic which will hopefully increase his market value.


    I could spitball a few more but maybe this can get people talking (mostly about how silly my first prediction is).
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    90 games division or bust.
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    I think their baseline is that of an 80 win team. But the optimist in me is having Lady Luck give them an extra 5 wins. That will allow them to be in the Wild Card race to the very end.

    In terms of individual players I'm going to predict the following hitters to hit better than their Fangraph OPS projections:

    Freeman, Kemp, Markakis, Inciarte, Albies, Mallex and Recker

    I predict the following will under-perform their OPS projections:

    Garcia, Rodriguez, Swanson, Flowers and Peterson

    With pitchers I expect the following to out-perform their xFIP projections:

    Teheran, Dickey, Folty, Wisler, Viz, Cabrera, Simmons, Krol, Paco Rodriguez, Winkler

    The following will under-perform:

    Colon, Garcia, Jim Johnson

    As the above indicates most of the "upside surprises" that will allow an 80 win team to win 85 games will come from the pitching.

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    I'm saying 80 also. By mid season we will have a better idea of our prospects and what our needs will be for a possible division or wild card run. We could make a big trade if we are still in it by the end of July.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think their baseline is that of an 80 win team. But the optimist in me is having Lady Luck give them an extra 5 wins. That will allow them to be in the Wild Card race to the very end.

    In terms of individual players I'm going to predict the following hitters to hit better than their Fangraph OPS projections:

    Freeman, Kemp, Markakis, Inciarte, Albies, Mallex and Recker

    I predict the following will under-perform their OPS projections:

    Garcia, Rodriguez, Swanson, Flowers and Peterson

    With pitchers I expect the following to out-perform their xFIP projections:

    Teheran, Dickey, Folty, Wisler, Viz, Cabrera, Simmons, Krol, Paco Rodriguez, Winkler

    The following will under-perform:

    Colon, Garcia, Jim Johnson

    As the above indicates most of the "upside surprises" that will allow an 80 win team to win 85 games will come from the pitching.
    Do you expect that Swanson will regress to those levels for his career or just growing pains in his first full season?
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    78 wins if they make no more acquisitions.

    +1 win if they add Wieters.

    +1 win if they add a RHed 4th OFer like Jennings, and he is utilized properly.

    +1 win if they add a LHed guy at 3b like Drew, +2 wins if they add Valbuena.

    Some individual predictions:

    Freeman hits 40+ HRs.

    Folty establishes himself as the Ace of the staff by August.

    Swanson isn't the star many think he is, more of a solid 2-3 win guy.

    Albies and Mallex are the only young position prospects that prove they belong in an MLB lineup. The rest, Ruiz, Peterson, and the rest, show they are only AAAA guys, yet folks continue to insist they need to be "given a chance to see what they can do".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    78 wins if they make no more acquisitions.

    +1 win if they add Wieters.

    +1 win if they add a RHed 4th OFer like Jennings, and he is utilized properly.

    +1 win if they add a LHed guy at 3b like Drew, +2 wins if they add Valbuena.

    Some individual predictions:

    Freeman hits 40+ HRs.

    Folty establishes himself as the Ace of the staff by August.

    Swanson isn't the star many think he is, more of a solid 2-3 win guy.

    Albies and Mallex are the only young position prospects that prove they belong in an MLB lineup. The rest, Ruiz, Peterson, and the rest, show they are only AAAA guys, yet folks continue to insist they need to be "given a chance to see what they can do".
    Consistent with your previous thoughts on the team.

    Is Folty the ace more of what because he is doing or what the rest of the staff are doing?
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Do you expect that Swanson will regress to those levels for his career or just growing pains in his first full season?
    Given his age 2017 is not likely to be his career best season.

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    Teheran - 3.58 ERA - TJ surgery after 10 starts.


    Garcia - 2.90 era 30 starts 200 IP

    Folty - 3.39 era. 30 starts 190 IP


    Dickey - 3.90 ETA- 32 starts 199 IP

    Colon - 4.15 era - 25 starts - replaced in the rotation in August.

    Not going to predict the pen, I could see it being great or imploding badly. I don't trust JJ, Cabrera, or Vizcaino. Vizcaino I think gets another TJ surgery.



    Flowers - .250/.310/.400


    Freeman - .315/.420/.606

    Albies - .240/.315/.350

    Swanson - .280/.350/.425

    Garcia - .260/.290/.380

    Peterson - .265/.345/.375

    Rodriguez - .261/.331/.460

    Ruiz - .255/.325/.405


    Inciarte - .312/.360/.400

    Markakis - .278/.355/.399

    Kemp - .280/.333/.525

    Mallex - .260/.320/.395




    Braves win 84 games.
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    It’s over."


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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think their baseline is that of an 80 win team. But the optimist in me is having Lady Luck give them an extra 5 wins. That will allow them to be in the Wild Card race to the very end.

    In terms of individual players I'm going to predict the following hitters to hit better than their Fangraph OPS projections:

    Freeman, Kemp, Markakis, Inciarte, Albies, Mallex and Recker

    I predict the following will under-perform their OPS projections:

    Garcia, Rodriguez, Swanson, Flowers and Peterson

    With pitchers I expect the following to out-perform their xFIP projections:

    Teheran, Dickey, Folty, Wisler, Viz, Cabrera, Simmons, Krol, Paco Rodriguez, Winkler

    The following will under-perform:

    Colon, Garcia, Jim Johnson

    As the above indicates most of the "upside surprises" that will allow an 80 win team to win 85 games will come from the pitching.
    Updating my projections on the eve of the start of the regular season. Since that post we've lost Sean Rodriguez to injury, traded away Smith and Simmons, and cut Paco Rodriguez. We have signed Phillips and Suzuki. Net that takes us down a couple wins. The Smith/Simmons/Gohara trade might pan out in the long run but it will certainly cost us this year.

    So this team looks more like a 78 win team to me now than the 80 wins I had it pegged for back in January. And the optimist in me thinks it is entirely possible we get more upside surprises than downside surprises. So 83 wins if things break our way. Probably not quite enough to really be in the wild card even under an optimistic scenario.

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    We are at the all-star break and the Braves are on pace to win 78 games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    We are at the all-star break and the Braves are on pace to win 78 games.
    What are the deeper numbers saying? Are we lucky to be at 78, right where we should be, or have we been unlucky?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    We are at the all-star break and the Braves are on pace to win 78 games.
    My prediction was 78 games.

    My individual predictions:

    Freeman hits 40+ HRs. (perfect if not for injury)

    Folty establishes himself as the Ace of the staff by August. (looking good)

    Swanson isn't the star many think he is, more of a solid 2-3 win guy. (seems about right)

    Albies and Mallex are the only young position prospects that prove they belong in an MLB lineup. (no proof with Albies yet, but Mallex has posted 1.1 bWAR this year so far)

    The rest, Ruiz, Peterson, and the rest, show they are only AAAA guys, (dead on)

    yet folks continue to insist they need to be "given a chance to see what they can do". (this was obvious)

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    I don't see anyway JJ is traded for much. May be a particular farm systems top 50 prospect, but certainly not a top 50 overall prospect.

    As far as overall wins, that will depend on how healthy we are and if we trade off any important pieces at the deadline. I think the team as constructed is a 80ish win team. But if Garcia, Colon, Dickey, Kemp, or Markakis are having good seasons and we're hovering around .500 or below, we won't hesitate to move any of those guys for the best package. I'm gonna say we win 79 games in 2017.
    Last edited by Carp; 01-02-2017 at 12:46 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coach_Chris View Post
    4-The word yuge will be mentioned over a 170 Times on Game Day threads
    More than 1 per Game Day thread. Yuge bold prediction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I could spitball a few more but maybe this can get people talking (mostly about how silly my first prediction is).
    I think #4 on your list is the only one that's somewhat silly, I don't see any way a team is going to give up a top 50 prospect for Johnson no matter how well he pitches. I think we wind up in the 75-80 win range, but 85 could be possible if everything bounced right (including #2 and #3 on your list).

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    I know this sounds bad, but I hope the vet pitchers don't do "just" well enough that we...
    1. Don't trade any of them even if some of our young guys are ready.
    2. Maybe even make a few trades at the deadline (giving away some good players), in the effort to make the playoffs...when we really would have no realistic chance to win a championship.
    I think low end 70, but this team could realistically win 80+ with some luck.

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