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Thread: Braves trade Mallex and Simmons to M's for Gohara and Burrows

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    He's negligibly better than the rest of those guys and they didn't cost an asset to acquire. Smyly has two years of control left where, unless he makes a jump, isn't going to provide that much (!!!!)surplus value(!!!!).

    If you're upset, be upset with the trade we did make as opposed to the one we didn't make (and shouldn't have made)
    Huh? The trade they did make was likely a direct result of not trading Mallex for Smyly themselves. They couldn't trade for Smyly because they already filled the rotation with lesser pitchers on 1 year deals.

    Are you completely unable to comprehend how these deals are related?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    The extension indicated as much.
    It's a win-win.

    If he does well you have him cheap. If he's league average, his contract is still very attractive to teams needing an outfielder like him that can rely more on his defensive skills than expecting him to produce offensively with frequency.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Huh? The trade they did make was likely a direct result of not trading Mallex for Smyly themselves. They couldn't trade for Smyly because they already filled the rotation with lesser pitchers on 1 year deals.

    Are you completely unable to comprehend how these deals are related?
    To be honest I bet they had the option for Smyly when trying to figure out an Archer deal and chose not to go in that direction and instead opted for Garcia later on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    He's negligibly better than the rest of those guys and they didn't cost an asset to acquire. Smyly has two years of control left where, unless he makes a jump, isn't going to provide that much (!!!!)surplus value(!!!!).

    If you're upset, be upset with the trade we did make as opposed to the one we didn't make (and shouldn't have made)
    I would rather have our rotation plus a high ceiling LHP and a BP guy ready by end of year over Smyly, plus we would have to have given more than just Mallex. I assume something like Pache and a top 30 pitcher...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Huh? The trade they did make was likely a direct result of not trading Mallex for Smyly themselves. They couldn't trade for Smyly because they already filled the rotation with lesser pitchers on 1 year deals.

    Are you completely unable to comprehend how these deals are related?
    It's entirely possible, if not probable that the Braves knew this was a possibility all along and decided they didn't value Smyly enough to go that route.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    Yeah, I don't like this at all. I agree that Burrows and Simmons are about a push so this is really about Mallex for Gohara. If Mallex had a lower ceiling I could understand this. But with his speed and track record of getting on base in the minors, he has the potential to be a very dangerous leadoff hitter. Trading a major league ready CFer who could end up being one of the game's better leadoff hitters for a pitcher that hasn't even made the jump to AA isn't something I like. Gohara's ceiling value is probably similar to Mallex's ceiling value but Gohara is a tremendously higher risk.

    I'm unimpressed.
    Mallex actually strikes me as more of a guy with a high floor than a guy with a high ceiling. Because of his defense, which seems to be at least average in CF, and his speed, he can provide value to a team and should be able to stick as at least a guy who can produce 1-1.5 WAR in the majors. But I don't know if he'll ever hit enough in the majors to be a whole lot more than that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Actually, I have repeatedly said the Braves are one of the few teams still clinging to some forms of stone aged thinking. This trade exemplifies that thinking perfectly, and is why it's going to be widely viewed as a bad trade from the Braves perspective.

    They gave up ~$50M in surplus value with Mallex (10+ WAR over 5 years at a total salary of ~$25M) for another lottery ticket A ball pitcher. This is a terrible trade.

    I know you can't wrap your head around surplus value, but that's how transactions are evaluated by the majority of people in the game.
    My guess is that the Braves don't see Mallex's value as anywhere close to your 10+ WAR projection, and they may have found out that many other teams agree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Smyly has 2 years before FA I believe. Still of the options Gohora is a better long term fit if you are moving Mallex. While Smyly does project to be better than Colon, Dickey, and Garcia the difference is negligible. They are essentially interchangeable and gone after a year or two anyways.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Huh? The trade they did make was likely a direct result of not trading Mallex for Smyly themselves. They couldn't trade for Smyly because they already filled the rotation with lesser pitchers on 1 year deals.

    Are you completely unable to comprehend how these deals are related?
    That's not my point. Of course I see the connection. It's not a hard one to make.

    My point was Smyly didn't make much sense for given the cost and his limited control. I don't really like trading Mallex for Gohara, but I prefer it to trading him (plus Pache) for Smyly.

    Please refer to thewupk's post I included as the correct way of comprehending what I posted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Mallex actually strikes me as more of a guy with a high floor than a guy with a high ceiling. Because of his defense, which seems to be at least average in CF, and his speed, he can provide value to a team and should be able to stick as at least a guy who can produce 1-1.5 WAR in the majors. But I don't know if he'll ever hit enough in the majors to be a whole lot more than that.
    I think Mallex will become a good CF.. he always got better after repeating a level, which tells me he adjusts well. I think he will consistently produce 3+ WAR through his age 30 season. Hopefully the big arms we got back are going to continue to improve as they both had very solid years last season. Burrows is close so he definitely softens the blow of losing Kimbrel2.0

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    Quote Originally Posted by GovClintonTyree View Post
    I don't suppose I need to point out that those are projections and they typically have to play the games before reaching conclusions. One could easily make the argument that Teheran is way low and Smyly too high.

    Nevertheless, if somebody was going to flip Mallex Smith for Drew Smyly, I wish it had been us.
    So because Teheran is on the Braves, his projection is too low, while Smyly's is too high? Seems like blatant homerism to me.

    Smyly should make about $6M in 2017. Dickey will make $8M, and Colon will make $12M. I know which pitcher I would much prefer on the Braves staff.

    I think I would rather have Smyly and whatever else the Braves could do with the money they saved (like adding more to sign Castro, or maybe win the bidding on Robert) by not signing one of the two geriatric pitchers rather than having Mr. Gohara in the stable of A ball arms.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    My guess is that the Braves don't see Mallex's value as anywhere close to your 10+ WAR projection, and they may have found out that many other teams agree.
    Yes, that's obvious. So why trade him now? Why not let him play in AAA and perhaps increase his value? Did the Braves have a pressing need for yet another 50 FV pitching prospect and couldn't afford to wait?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Forever Fredi View Post
    Well we probably unloaded Simbrel because of potential injury again.

    Does Gohara have an injury history? Not sure why we unloaded Mallex for this.
    From Baseball America:

    The Mariners signed Gohara on Aug. 14, 2012. Seattle had followed the Brazilian closely for two years and signed him about two weeks after his 16th birthday. Most international free agents who turn pro at age 16 subsequently lose Rule 5 exemption for the first time at age 20. (But a loophole involving a collapsing winter league meant he was not eligible this year, but will be in 2017.)

    In Gohara’s case, not only is he a “young” 20-year-old, but he also is an inexperienced one. He began each of the past four seasons in extended spring training, and this year he made just 10 starts at low Class A Clinton. Those 10 starts are the extent of his experience in a full-season league.

    At age 16, he was already 6-3, 220 and threw 94. Jeff Sullivan indicated at the time that he signed for $880,000.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Mallex actually strikes me as more of a guy with a high floor than a guy with a high ceiling. Because of his defense, which seems to be at least average in CF, and his speed, he can provide value to a team and should be able to stick as at least a guy who can produce 1-1.5 WAR in the majors. But I don't know if he'll ever hit enough in the majors to be a whole lot more than that.
    I've always seen Mallex as having a Juan Pierre type ceiling with a decent shot at reaching that. I'm just not terribly high on Gohara, though I admittedly don't know a ton about him. What I've read has me thinking he's more likely to be a back end of the rotation starter or a lefty setup man. I just don't see Gohara's realistic ceiling being higher than Mallex's.

    It just seems like we traded for a whole lot more risk without much potential for a larger payoff. That's not a smart thing to do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Yeah. Gohara is the highest upside player in this trade. Still seems like a light return for Mallex and Shae.
    Simmons I don't value that high. Sure he has a nice arm, but relievers who have TJ at 24 and take 2 years to recover because of shoulder and lat injuries. DOn't get me wrong, when he's out there he's got quite some value, but overall I see him as not a huge loss. Mallex on the other hand could be quite valuable if he can defend the way he should. Even if he doesn't hit much, his speed is plus-plus and his defense should be plus. If he can hit around league average he should be a very nice player.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Yes, that's obvious. So why trade him now? Why not let him play in AAA and perhaps increase his value? Did the Braves have a pressing need for yet another 50 FV pitching prospect and couldn't afford to wait?
    That's my main issue with this trade. Honestly I don't think getting Smyly or Gohora is really that much of a difference. We already have starters with 1-2 years of control with similar production as Smyly and Gohora could be something special. He has a big arm. But why not let Mallex build up some value and try and get more for him? Seems we sold low on him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    So because Teheran is on the Braves, his projection is too low, while Smyly's is too high? Seems like blatant homerism to me.

    Smyly should make about $6M in 2017. Dickey will make $8M, and Colon will make $12M. I know which pitcher I would much prefer on the Braves staff.

    I think I would rather have Smyly and whatever else the Braves could do with the money they saved (like adding more to sign Castro, or maybe win the bidding on Robert) by not signing one of the two geriatric pitchers rather than having Mr. Gohara in the stable of A ball arms.
    You're assuming the Braves were constrained by payroll by choosing not to sign Castro. It's far more likely that they had the money to match Minnesota's offer, but simply didn't value him that much than it was that they ran up against a budget ceiling. Especially when you are referring to the salary difference of 2-6 million

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    That's my main issue with this trade. Honestly I don't think getting Smyly or Gohora is really that much of a difference. We already have starters with 1-2 years of control with similar production as Smyly and Gohora could be something special. He has a big arm. But why not let Mallex build up some value and try and get more for him? Seems we sold low on him.
    Completely agree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Forever Fredi View Post
    It's a win-win.

    If he does well you have him cheap. If he's league average, his contract is still very attractive to teams needing an outfielder like him that can rely more on his defensive skills than expecting him to produce offensively with frequency.
    Defaulting on the optimistic side, myself, and believe that Inciarte will be a vital component of their future success.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I think Mallex will become a good CF.. he always got better after repeating a level, which tells me he adjusts well. I think he will consistently produce 3+ WAR through his age 30 season. Hopefully the big arms we got back are going to continue to improve as they both had very solid years last season. Burrows is close so he definitely softens the blow of losing Kimbrel2.0
    And you may end up being right. But the opinions of prospect sites has continued to lag behind fans. We'll see which turns out to be right in the end, but there has to be a reason they still don't see Mallex as much more than a bench bat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Yes, that's obvious. So why trade him now? Why not let him play in AAA and perhaps increase his value? Did the Braves have a pressing need for yet another 50 FV pitching prospect and couldn't afford to wait?
    They obviously like Gohara.

    They probably felt like Mallex's value was only going to go down from where it is right now. The solution for all players who don't have tons of value is not always, 'Just wait and maybe increase his value.' Value can still go the other way. Teams have to scout their own guys and make decisions.

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