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Thread: Braves trade Mallex and Simmons to M's for Gohara and Burrows

  1. #81
    Director of Minor League Reports rico43's Avatar
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    Some perspective, maybe. MLB.com's current Top 30 Mariners prospects:

    5. Gohara
    10. Max Povse
    13. Yarbrough (in trade to Rays)
    14. Rob Whalen
    25. Burroughs

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    You're assuming the Braves were constrained by payroll by choosing not to sign Castro. It's far more likely that they had the money to match Minnesota's offer, but simply didn't value him that much than it was that they ran up against a budget ceiling. Especially when you are referring to the salary difference of 2-6 million
    Most likely the Braves had to pick between the Garcia trade, or Mallex plus something else for Smyly and decided to take Garcia. There is simply no way the Braves didn't know they could get Smyly for Mallex after talking to the Rays about Archer for weeks. Then the M's got wind of it somehow, and found a way to get Mallex for themselves so they could acquire Smyly.

    The M's were able to pry Mallex away from the Braves because they still live in the stone age when it comes to over-valuing pitching prospects, which they have done throughout the entire rebuild.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 01-11-2017 at 04:55 PM.

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    Director of Minor League Reports rico43's Avatar
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    How long now before they re-sign Francoeur?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rico43 View Post
    Some perspective, maybe. MLB.com's current Top 30 Mariners prospects:

    5. Gohara
    10. Max Povse
    13. Yarbrough (in trade to Rays)
    14. Rob Whalen
    25. Burroughs
    Gohara will likely slot in somewhere around 8-15 for the Braves. I'm guessing #9 between Wentz and TD.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Gohara will likely slot in somewhere around 8-15 for the Braves. I'm guessing #9 between Wentz and TD.
    That's almost certainly higher than Mallex would slot were he still eligible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rico43 View Post
    How long now before they re-sign Francoeur?
    He or KJ will be re-signed by this time tomorrow.
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    Sabermetric Slut
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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    That's almost certainly higher than Mallex would slot were he still eligible.
    Braves do have an insanely deep system. Hopefully it produces.

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    Hate trading Mallex.

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    Braves1976 (01-11-2017),JohnAdcox (01-11-2017),mfree80 (01-11-2017),striker42 (01-11-2017),thewupk (01-11-2017)

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    Quote Originally Posted by rico43 View Post
    Some perspective, maybe. MLB.com's current Top 30 Mariners prospects:

    5. Gohara
    10. Max Povse
    13. Yarbrough (in trade to Rays)
    14. Rob Whalen
    25. Burroughs
    Baseball America has Gohara at #3 on the M's top 10 and Povse at #8. That came out within the last month or so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Most likely the Braves had to pick between the Garcia trade, or Mallex plus something else for Smyly and decided to take Garcia. There is simply no way the Braves didn't know they could get Smyly for Mallex after talking to the Rays about Archer for weeks. Then the M's got wind of it somehow, and found a way to get Mallex for themselves so they could acquire Smyly.

    The M's were able to pry Mallex away from the Braves because they still live in the stone age when it comes to over-valuing pitching prospects, which they have done throughout the entire rebuild.
    "Pry away" Mallex Smith. Heh.

  13. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    true. just sometimes wonder what else could be had if you package Smith with other prospects. Could our return been better?
    I'd imagine the Braves did their due diligence regarding that question and found the answer to be no. In terms of value, I think it was a perfectly acceptable trade, and again I like the approach of betting on upside. It's hard to evaluate it in terms of what other hypothetical moves could have been made.

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    Here is a report on Gohara I copied from a post made by BravesRays in the comments at Talking Chop:

    "Gohara’s stuff from his time in the AFL last year …

    Gohara threw just over 11 innings in the AFL in 2016 and a total of 70 four-seamers, 30 sliders, and 2 change-ups. He pitched mostly in one and two inning stints in the AFL, so he was probably throwing harder than he would as a starter, but even so, he throws really hard for a lefty. In the AFL his four-seamer averaged 98.5 (!) mph (almost three standard deviations above-average for a lefty) with good movement (half a standard more rise and armside movement than the average lefty). His top fastball comps are Enny Romero and James Paxton. He pairs the four-seamer with a good slider that is over one full standard deviation harder than average for lefties at almost 86 mph on average. The slider has above average depth and glove-side movement (about half a standard deviation more horizontal movement and vertical movement than average). I’d imagine the pitch is a pretty effective whiff generator for him, and I’m sure his fastball is as well.

    He only threw two change-ups in the AFL, but the ones he did throw were hard (close to 89.5 mph on average), which was still about 9 mph slower than his fastball. The change had excellent arm-side fade (more than one standard deviation above average at 6.6 inches), but it had no depth at all. The vertical movement on the change and his four-seamer (ie. the rising action) was almost the same (over 10 inches for both the four-seamer and change). That’s not very good, and he’ll have to get more depth on that pitch for it to be a viable third offering for him.

    From what I’ve read his command projects as below-average. A two-pitch pitcher with below-average command is probably a decent bet to wind up in the bullpen, though his fastball and slider are good enough that he could probably get by as a starter with below-average command if he can develop his change-up into an effective third offering."

    I bolded what I consider the conclusion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Here is a report on Gohara I copied from a post made by BravesRays in the comments at Talking Chop:

    "Gohara’s stuff from his time in the AFL last year …

    Gohara threw just over 11 innings in the AFL in 2016 and a total of 70 four-seamers, 30 sliders, and 2 change-ups. He pitched mostly in one and two inning stints in the AFL, so he was probably throwing harder than he would as a starter, but even so, he throws really hard for a lefty. In the AFL his four-seamer averaged 98.5 (!) mph (almost three standard deviations above-average for a lefty) with good movement (half a standard more rise and armside movement than the average lefty). His top fastball comps are Enny Romero and James Paxton. He pairs the four-seamer with a good slider that is over one full standard deviation harder than average for lefties at almost 86 mph on average. The slider has above average depth and glove-side movement (about half a standard deviation more horizontal movement and vertical movement than average). I’d imagine the pitch is a pretty effective whiff generator for him, and I’m sure his fastball is as well.

    He only threw two change-ups in the AFL, but the ones he did throw were hard (close to 89.5 mph on average), which was still about 9 mph slower than his fastball. The change had excellent arm-side fade (more than one standard deviation above average at 6.6 inches), but it had no depth at all. The vertical movement on the change and his four-seamer (ie. the rising action) was almost the same (over 10 inches for both the four-seamer and change). That’s not very good, and he’ll have to get more depth on that pitch for it to be a viable third offering for him.

    From what I’ve read his command projects as below-average. A two-pitch pitcher with below-average command is probably a decent bet to wind up in the bullpen, though his fastball and slider are good enough that he could probably get by as a starter with below-average command if he can develop his change-up into an effective third offering."

    I bolded what I consider the conclusion.
    The second part of that sentence is every bit a conclusion of its own with a rosier outlook. At the end of the day, we're talking about a 20-year-old from Brazil, where I'm guessing he didn't get the best tutelage to prepare him for affiliated ball. There's a lot of development left to do, and with his fastball/slider combo, high-leverage reliever seems like a pretty reasonable floor. I'm not climbing out on a ledge and saying he's clearly an upgrade for our system compared to Mallex, but I think he's at least a risk worth taking because a LH starter throwing mid-90s with a good slider could go pretty far.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mqt View Post
    The second part of that sentence is every bit a conclusion of its own with a rosier outlook. At the end of the day, we're talking about a 20-year-old from Brazil, where I'm guessing he didn't get the best tutelage to prepare him for affiliated ball. There's a lot of development left to do, and with his fastball/slider combo, high-leverage reliever seems like a pretty reasonable floor. I'm not climbing out on a ledge and saying he's clearly an upgrade for our system compared to Mallex, but I think he's at least a risk worth taking because a LH starter throwing mid-90s with a good slider could go pretty far.

    there probably been some good LHP who are closers that throw really hard.. I can't think of any right now, but I am sure there have been.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    there probably been some good LHP who are closers that throw really hard.. I can't think of any right now, but I am sure there have been.
    I guess if Gohara goes out and chokes his girlfriend we might win this trade.

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    Expects Huge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    there probably been some good LHP who are closers that throw really hard.. I can't think of any right now, but I am sure there have been.
    Chapman, Wagner

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    2019. Definitely 2019. GovClintonTyree's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    So because Teheran is on the Braves, his projection is too low, while Smyly's is too high? Seems like blatant homerism to me.
    Or Teheran's historical non-injury range of 3.2-4.8 WAR and Smyly's never hitting 2.5 in five years including 0.0 last year. Asshole.

    And nobody but you has been beating the drum about the missed opportunity to pay a .210 hitter with an average OPS+ of 84 $25m. So give the Castro thing a rest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Chapman, Wagner
    I know.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GovClintonTyree View Post
    Or Teheran's historical non-injury range of 3.2-4.8 WAR and Smyly's never hitting 2.5 in five years including 0.0 last year. Asshole.

    And nobody but you has been beating the drum about the missed opportunity to pay a .210 hitter with an average OPS+ of 84 $25m. So give the Castro thing a rest.
    Well then

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    Seattle has already traded him
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