Originally Posted by
smootness
Do the numbers regarding surplus value and bust rate account for the fact that these lists change over time, meaning that some of the prospects in the 75-100 range end up in the 11-25 range, for example? Because all top 100 prospects are not created equally. As an example, Stephen Gonsalves right now is a top 100 prospect, but I don't think anyone in baseball would take him over Max Fried, who is not currently in the top 100. There is a chance Fried gets his value back up this year and is due for a big jump in prospect rankings, but is called up before the end of the year and never sees himself on a year-end top 100 list following his TJ surgery. If I am choosing between someone in the 75-100 range who is 24 years old, or one who is 18, I'll take the 18-year-old every time. And my guess is that the 18-year-old, on average, will end up with more WAR and a higher surplus value.
I'm assuming this is taken into account in some way, but I haven't seen it. So I would be interested in a more nuanced analysis of this. Just saying 'guys in this range have this value' is way too general, IMO.