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Thread: Keith Law Ranks Braves System No. 1 in Baseball

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I think fans are going to be surprised with how much the braves will spend in the next 5 years.
    I agree. I think we'll trade off assets to get the TOR pitcher and buy a big bat. People keep saying "there's NO way Machado is available next year." Why not? why would he stay?

    I think he could be a serious guy we look at. Harper as well -- believe it or not.

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    I could see Machado being the target, Harper imo is destined to be a Yankee.

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    I don't see any way, even with the increased payroll, we pay someone $35-40 million/year. And honestly, even if that player was Machado, I'm not sure I would want to do it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by UNCBlue012 View Post
    I agree. I think we'll trade off assets to get the TOR pitcher and buy a big bat. People keep saying "there's NO way Machado is available next year." Why not? why would he stay?

    I think he could be a serious guy we look at. Harper as well -- believe it or not.
    Harper isn't coming here; even if you believe the FO that we are jumping payroll, we aren't going to outbid the big-boys for Harper and frankly why would he come here instead of a big market like NY?

    I highly doubt Machado would be in play either, just too much money. I really think people are overestimating a few statements by the Braves that payroll is going to increase. I'll be stunned if we are really serious about a Machado.

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    This list was clearly done before the White Sox traded Eaton and Sale. After they trade Q they will be easy #1.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Preacher View Post
    Harper isn't coming here; even if you believe the FO that we are jumping payroll, we aren't going to outbid the big-boys for Harper and frankly why would he come here instead of a big market like NY?

    I highly doubt Machado would be in play either, just too much money. I really think people are overestimating a few statements by the Braves that payroll is going to increase. I'll be stunned if we are really serious about a Machado.
    You are 100% correct, but it won't stop rampant speculation from Braves homers. The typical big spending teams have been quiet the last couple offseasons for a reason: to keep their powder dry for guys like Harper and Machado.

    Here is the rule of thumb for the Braves FA acquisitions:

    If the total contract tops $200M, or the annual salary tops $25M, the Braves are not going to be "in" on that FA.

    A more likely option at 3B is buying the decline years of Donaldson, but by then the Braves should be saving 3B for Maitan.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This list was clearly done before the White Sox traded Eaton and Sale. After they trade Q they will be easy #1.
    It was posted this morning. Their system is incredibly top-heavy, it still has no depth at all.

    Plus, who cares whether the White Sox pass us at some point? It doesn't change the guys we have at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    It was posted this morning. Their system is incredibly top-heavy, it still has no depth at all.

    Plus, who cares whether the White Sox pass us at some point? It doesn't change the guys we have at all.
    So the White Sox aren't even Top 5? I refuse to give ESPN cash for their drivel, so I can't see where they actually rank, but it kinda puts the validity of his opinion into question.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    So the White Sox aren't even Top 5? I refuse to give ESPN cash for their drivel, so I can't see where they actually rank, but it kinda puts the validity of his opinion into question.
    Does it? I'm sure he has reasons for that opinion. Again, their system is very top-heavy, so if he doesn't like some of their top prospects as much as others, it stands to reason he won't like their system much. For example, he has probably soured on Giolito quite a bit. If he thinks Kopech is a future RP, then their system starts to look pretty thin outside of Moncada.

    Just because you don't share his opinion doesn't mean his should be questioned. If you didn't have the Braves top 5, that would be pretty suspicious just because of the sheer numbers of guys with promising ceilings they have. Same with the Yankees. After that it may swing based on what someone thinks of just a couple individual prospects.

    I don't think it's crazy that someone could like the Padres, Pirates, and Dodgers more than the White Sox. All 4 have very good, and pretty similar, systems. Moncada is the best single prospect, but they're all very good.
    Last edited by smootness; 01-20-2017 at 12:49 PM.

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    I agree that we are not paying guys like Machado or Harper. That's crazy money and it's not worth it.

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    I would definitely say they are top 5. Adding the talent they did in those 2 trades have probably made them top 2-3.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    I would definitely say they are top 5. Adding the talent they did in those 2 trades have probably made them top 2-3.
    Those trades were obviously great. But their system was pretty bad before them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Those trades were obviously great. But their system was pretty bad before them.
    I agree with that. Fulmer probably was their best prospect before the trade and he is so so. Without Moncada it wouldn't be what it is. If they can get another haul out of Quintana then they could take over the top spot. What gives our farm so much thump is the amount of talent we have and it is ridiculously deep.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This list was clearly done before the White Sox traded Eaton and Sale. After they trade Q they will be easy #1.
    If Law thinks we have 11ish top 100 guys, we would still be #1.

    Law likes raw upside more than MLB readiness.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    I agree that we are not paying guys like Machado or Harper. That's crazy money and it's not worth it.
    The only was Machado would work is if they could get the same amount of money spread out over more years. For tax purposes, etc., it would make sense for a player to stretch his contract out. I would be so bold as to give him 10 years at close to $300 million -- because who knows where salaries will be in another 5-6 seasons?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rico43 View Post
    The only was Machado would work is if they could get the same amount of money spread out over more years. For tax purposes, etc., it would make sense for a player to stretch his contract out. I would be so bold as to give him 10 years at close to $300 million -- because who knows where salaries will be in another 5-6 seasons?
    Why would anyone spread the same amount of money out over more years?

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    Machado is actually the perfect guy to give a huge contract to. In all likelihood, he'll require an opt-clause after year 3 or so anyways, clearing any future salary obligations. And at that point, we probably wouldn't want him anymore anyways with his decline years coming and with Maitan waiting to step in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Machado is actually the perfect guy to give a huge contract to. In all likelihood, he'll require an opt-clause after year 3 or so anyways, clearing any future salary obligations. And at that point, we probably wouldn't want him anymore anyways with his decline years coming and with Maitan waiting to step in.
    And with all the cheap talent the braves can afford a 3 year 100+ million obligation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    And with all the cheap talent the braves can afford a 3 year 100+ million obligation.
    1. depends on the cheap talent producing (obviously) but its not a guarantee
    2. we aren't going to be the highest bidder on a guy like Machado. We are still owned by a corporation.
    3. why would these players choose to come to Atlanta, when teams like LAD, NYY, CHC, BOS are going to be just as competitive if not more, have better fanbases, more money and bigger markets? Why would they choose Atlanta even if we are in the same ball park financially as the other heavy-spenders.

    Really not trying to be a wet-towel here -- but guys like Machado/Harper are pipe-dreams.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    It's not if you think about it from Law's side.

    These lists are VERY SUBJECTIVE. Law is very consistent in that he strongly prefers upside and tools. Wren liked closer to the ML and more likely. Wren liked Minor and Law likes Touki.

    Law's point is that if you pick a bunch of Minor's you're likely to get a bunch of back end starters and maybe one improves to be as good as a healthy Minor was. If you draft a bunch of Toukis most will flame out, but you can get one of those elusive TOR guys (while cheap), prob still find a middle starter or two, and probably get a high leverage BP arm.

    Law likes us b/c we are now drafting to HIS philosophy. He still hates the Braves name and would not work there w/o a name change.

    He still does not like fan favorite Riley. Slow bat and unlikely to play well at 3B. Still doesn't like Kemp. Still doesn't like Neck. Still thinks Demmeritte is a flawed prospect bc of strike out rate. Etc Etc.

    He is just saying that we've got enough lottery tickets that a couple should pan out.
    He's saying we have the best farm system in all of baseball, in spite of the fact that he doesn't think much of prospects like Riley and Demeritte. You're right that these things are subjective, but seeing a largely respected talent evaluator say we have built the top farm in baseball is certainly not a bad thing. You don't have to agree with all his individual assessments to be excited about the evaluation of our farm system.

    Also, I would disagree with your thought on him just saying we have lottery tickets, because if that we're the basis, San Diego would top his list. His description of our system suggests that he thinks it's only lacking in power bats that are close to contributing. We have quality arms from top to bottom, and an impressive number of up the middle prospects. You can do a lot worse than building around those two areas.

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