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Thread: Breakout and Bust Predictions

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    It's OVER 5,000! striker42's Avatar
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    Breakout and Bust Predictions

    I posted a similar thread last year making predictions of breakout and bust candidates in our minors and ended up fairly wrong. IIRC, I picked Braxton Davidson as likely to breakout. But I'll try again this year. Here are my picks for the most likely minor leaguers to break out and the most likely to bust.

    Breakout:

    1- Sean Newcomb- Can you pick a guy who K'd more than a batter an inning last year with a FIP of 3.19 a breakout candidate? I am. I'm picking Newcomb to just explode this year. Newcomb really has only one flaw in his entire game, he walks a few too many. Everything else is great. He's got elite stuff, a starter's build, he's left handed, he racks up the Ks and gives up almost no HRs. All he has to do is decrease his walk rate and he's got everything to be a top 5 prospect in the game. I think he does that. From everything I've seen his walk problems are the result of not repeating his mechanics well. Considering he's a cold weather product that didn't have a ton of experience when drafted, that's not a surprise. Also, he doesn't have to drop his BB rate a ton to be successful. Even with giving up too many walks his FIP was 3.19. The fact that he's a strikeout pitcher that doesn't give up many HRs limits the damage of the BBs. So a small improvement in walks should be all it will take.

    2- Lucas Sims- This is my biggest reach. I'm going out on a limb here and saying this is the year Sims breaks out, reaches the majors, and sticks. However, I'm predicting he wont do it as a starter. I'm saying this is the year the Braves give up on him as a starting prospect due to his control issues and move him to the pen. Out of the pen, his fastball will play up and will pair with his curve to create a deadly combo. Interestingly, Sims is also one of the bigger bust candidates this year as well after his disastrous promotion to AAA last year.

    3- Ronald Acuna- This is an easy one. Last year would have probably been his breakout year if he hadn't gotten hurt. Acuna can do it all and at a premium position. I expect he'll start the year in low A and finish it in high A but I wouldn't count an end of the season taste of Mississippi out of the question.

    Honorable Mentions- Kolby Allard and Touki Toussaint- I could easily see both of these guys breakout out and establishing themselves as top 25 prospects in the game. However, the fact the Braves may be a bit protective of Allard and the possibility that Touki's rawness will lead to struggles adjusting to each level as he moves up drops them a bit in breakout potential.

    Bust:

    1- Luiz Gohara- He has a big fastball and put up some nice numbers last year but there are control issues there. He'll probably get challenged by the Braves this year and I really have my doubts as to how he'll respond. It wouldn't surprise me to see him struggle. While 2017 could be a bust year for Gohara, it might be salvaged by a move to the pen where he probably fits better long term.

    2- Ian Anderson- "Bust" might be too strong a word. I'm thinking "disappointing" might be a better word for Anderson's 2017. As the number 3 pick you're hoping Anderson will come out next year and dominate Rome but something, and I can't put my finger on what it is, makes me think he'll struggle. I don't think he's going to put up an ERA over 6 or anything like that but I can easily see his season being underwhelming. An ERA around 4.00 with fairly pedestrian K numbers and more hits than are ideal sounds about right.

    3- Travis Demeritte- You hear a lot of excited talk about Demeritte but I can easily see him falling flat on his face without some pretty big steps forward. He's got huge power and a good BB rate but that K rate is AWFUL. It's so difficult to be successful when you're not putting your bat on the ball in a third of your PAs. The fact that he's having these problems in A ball makes me even more nervous. He's going to go to AA this year and that's one of the hardest jumps in baseball. That could be difficult for Demerittte. That being said, his AFL performance did give cause for hope. His K rate dropped and his BA held steady in spite of a big drop in BABIP. So hopefully that was real improvement.



    I have no doubt I'm going to be wrong on several of these picks, hopefully the busts.

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    I don't really want to pick potential busts, but my breakout picks are: Gohara, Fried, and Wentz. I think Acuna's already basically broken out, and I think Maitan is already well-known enough to not be able to truly 'break out'.

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    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
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    Corbin Clouse will make a Kimbrel like ascension to the bug leagues.

    Bryse Wilson is another guy who I think will be consistently overshadowed but will have a breakout year in rome.

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    I like the Clouse pick.

    I also like Fried as a breakout candidate. I don't think the talk of him reaching Atlanta possibly this year is idle.

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    A Chip Off the Old Rock Julio3000's Avatar
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    If I had to pick one, it would be Fried.

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    Think they knew there was boom/bust scenario with the likes of Jackson, Gohara and Demeritte. Sometimes you have to roll the dice and take side issues into consideration (character, injury history) with the possibility of harnessing that potential. Prognostication is not my forte, but there will be a suprise among the high risk group and a "can't miss" prospects will bust!
    Last edited by Knucksie; 01-20-2017 at 01:14 PM.

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    Surprise
    Blair
    Newcomb
    Touki
    Muller
    Ramirez
    Dirks
    Cumberland

    Dissapoint
    Folty
    Wisler
    Mauricio
    Riley
    Ruiz
    Hebert

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    Breakout: Randy Ventura
    Bust: Anfernee Seymour

    Prediction: Ventura will have more stolen bases than Seymour this year.

    (Actual breakout: Fried, Touki, Soroka
    Actual bust: Jason Hursh, Gohara first half)
    Last edited by Managuarantano's Volunteers; 01-20-2017 at 01:14 PM.

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    Does anybody rate Rio Ruiz that highly? Having seen the guy play, he doesn't strike me as more upside than regular 3B on a non-contending team. If he doesn't attain that, he might be AAAA type of guy. Not seeing how that's a bust, as not as much is expected of him.

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    Director of Minor League Reports rico43's Avatar
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    My Breakouts:

    Fried
    Albies
    Minter
    Allard
    Clouse

    Busts

    Davidson (expect his release sometime this year)
    Weigel (in a minor way)
    Demeritte (strikeouts)
    Seymour (ditto)
    Hursh (traded or DFA at the end of spring)

    Agree that Acuna has already broken out; Albies is actually more of a comeback but I do think he will be in the big leagues to stay before year's end
    Expect that Newcomb remains on the verge

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    I think Hursh has already busted. And I would consider Soroka to have already broken out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    Does anybody rate Rio Ruiz that highly? Having seen the guy play, he doesn't strike me as more upside than regular 3B on a non-contending team. If he doesn't attain that, he might be AAAA type of guy. Not seeing how that's a bust, as not as much is expected of him.
    Don't forget about his age. He still has a lot of power projection in his frame and he was one of the youngest guys at AAA putting up decent numbers. He has quite a lot of time left.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Don't forget about his age. He still has a lot of power projection in his frame and he was one of the youngest guys at AAA putting up decent numbers. He has quite a lot of time left.
    It's not me who's predicting him to be a bust (per se) because my perception is that he's not really a top prospect. If you had to pin me down, he might end up being a stop-gap at 3rd after Garcia and before arrival of Maitan. Meantime, he can be showcased as potential trade piece. Just don't see him as being part of long term future plans.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    It's not me who's predicting him to be a bust (per se) because my perception is that he's not really a top prospect. If you had to pin me down, he might end up being a stop-gap at 3rd after Garcia and before arrival of Maitan. Meantime, he can be showcased as potential trade piece. Just don't see him as being part of long term future plans.
    Oh I understand I just think he could surprise some people. He's very young, has the pedigree, the physical frame, and the work ethic. He very well could continue underwhelming but he has a ton of room to grow

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    Breakout:

    Folty
    Wisler
    Acuña
    Touki
    Demeritte
    Fried

    Busts:

    Sims
    Ruiz
    Riley
    Blair
    Cumberland

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    Breakout

    Acuna
    Minter
    Fried
    Toussaint
    Soroka
    "Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.

    It’s over."


    Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Oh I understand I just think he could surprise some people. He's very young, has the pedigree, the physical frame, and the work ethic. He very well could continue underwhelming but he has a ton of room to grow
    Let's hope so. Would be a nice surprise.

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    Up: Fried. Toussaint.

    Down: Ruiz. Davidson.

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    Up: Fried. Toussaint.

    Down: Ruiz. Davidson.

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    Up: Fried, Acuna, Ruiz
    Down: Sims, Riley, TD.

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