Keith Law's Top 100 Prospect Rankings

[Preacher]

Blair can very much still make a MLB impact; guy was very highly thought of just a year ago and pitched well in AAA before coming up to the show. Young guy.

[Tapate50]

One game does not a turnaround make, but I watched with awe Aaron Blair's final start against as desperate Detroit team that was not yet eliminated from the playoffs. Blair's line: 6 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, 10 (count 'em) strikeouts. Despite the big strikeout total, he threw only 85 pitches.

I've said it here before but something got out of whack very quickly with him. You don't go from throwing no hitters at AAA, to not being able to get out of the 2nd inning in a matter of a few starts. Either it was butterflies, a mechanical flaw, or whatever there was something that got thrown off and he struggled from then forward.

He may have regained it, but it wasn't that he just doesn't have it to be a nice MLB pitcher. It was more like he got messed up mechanically and couldn't regain it. ( not uncommon)

[striker42]

Sometimes I play resident expert and I'm not. MY EYEBALL...the post above is almost spot on. However, I'm a NEWK fan through and through. I didn't see anybody including Allard, Soroka, Wiegel last year that had consistent "you can't hit me stuff" more than Newk. I'm serious. The walks are notable and you can't ignore them. However, when batters did touch the ball when he threw strikes, their contact was weak. Very weak. IF he figures it out, the conversation is much different.

I saw Rome a lot last year. And I saw MS a few times. I think Newk is suffering from prospect fatigue and the walks. If it weren't for that, he'd be our top lefty with an argument for Allard.

You're right that the walks can't be ignored. The reliability of his control will likely be the thing that determines how good he is. However, even with the walks he still put up an impressive FIP. His stuff is almost unhittable and he almost never gives up a HR. Those two things combine to limit the damage of the BBs. If he can reduce the BBs he'll be insanely good. We're talking top 5 prospect in the game good.

[Enscheff]

Remember Blair was top 40 last year on this list and Jenkins made the just missed list.

Also Ellis and Sims were both top 100 at some point for Law. It's not a guarantee of any future value.

Just re-read Klaw's last year's list (Touki on it at 80) and it's amazing Blair then vs Blair now.

Which is precisely why teams should not hesitate to trade away hitters outside the Top 25, and pitchers outside the Top 10, unless the prospects are super young like the cases of Acuna, Maitan, Anderson, and maybe Touki (though he is on the verge).

A prospect in his early 20s and/or AA is almost a 50/50 chance to be a bust (defined as less than 3 WAR total at the MLB level) if he is outside the Top 25 as a hitter or Top 10 as a pitcher. Those are the guys everyone keeps waiting to "figure it out", but they ultimately never do.

Knowing this, the Braves should be pushing to trade Newcomb in any deal they make to improve the MLB roster next offseason. Guys like Blair and Jenkins are already in the AAAA bin as far as value goes.

[bravesfanMatt]

I've said it here before but something got out of whack very quickly with him. You don't go from throwing no hitters at AAA, to not being able to get out of the 2nd inning in a matter of a few starts. Either it was butterflies, a mechanical flaw, or whatever there was something that got thrown off and he struggled from then forward.

He may have regained it, but it wasn't that he just doesn't have it to be a nice MLB pitcher. It was more like he got messed up mechanically and couldn't regain it. ( not uncommon)

agree completely. he was on a roll prior to his call up. His first two games were effective but he nibbled a lot. I think from there, he lost confidence and command. Hopefully, his head and mechanics are right and we will see more of Blair like his last three starts..

[thethe]

Which is precisely why teams should not hesitate to trade away hitters outside the Top 25, and pitchers outside the Top 10, unless the prospects are super young like the cases of Acuna, Maitan, Anderson, and maybe Touki (though he is on the verge).

A prospect in his early 20s and/or AA is almost a 50/50 chance to be a bust (defined as less than 3 WAR total at the MLB level) if he is outside the Top 25 as a hitter or Top 10 as a pitcher. Those are the guys everyone keeps waiting to "figure it out", but they ultimately never do.

Knowing this, the Braves should be pushing to trade Newcomb in any deal they make to improve the MLB roster next offseason. Guys like Blair and Jenkins are already in the AAAA bin as far as value goes.

I don't think it's as simple as looking at their age. What about guys that are late to baseball? Someone like Newcomb has more developent than a 20 year old whose been playing baseball year round since 15.

Scouting is not a spreadsheet. I agree that once players are in the big league's most of these metrics are great analysis tools. It just doesn't work with prospects

[Enscheff]

I don't think it's as simple as looking at their age. What about guys that are late to baseball? Someone like Newcomb has more developent than a 20 year old whose been playing baseball year round since 15.

Scouting is not a spreadsheet. I agree that once players are in the big league's most of these metrics are great analysis tools. It just doesn't work with prospects

I don't know what the success rate of "latecomers" is for 23 year-olds with major control problems in AA. Anecdotal evidence like, "they take longer to develop" doesn't really hold water in a logical decision making progress.

We know a few things as facts:

1. Old prospects rarely move up in rankings.
2. Young prospects potentially move up in rankings.
3. Pitchers/hitters outside the Top 10/25 have a nearly 50% bust rate.

Therefore, young pitchers/hitters can move into their respective Top 10/25 groups, while old prospects probably won't.

So if a guy is old, chances are he isn't moving up the rankings. If he isn't going to move up the rankings, he ends up being subject to the 50/50 bust potential. It is logical to conclude that's why bust...they are too old to improve significantly.

If Newcomb can be used as a major part to acquire an impact MLB player, the Braves should not hesitate.

Please note, this is not me saying, "Newcomb is garbage, dump him for a 4th OFer". So let's not get sidetracked down that path of argument. Let's also please avoid discussing the 0.1% chance he is the next Randy Johnson or Jake Arrieta and realize 99.9% of pitchers who are bad in the mid-20s stay bad.

[bravesfanMatt]

I don't think it's as simple as looking at their age. What about guys that are late to baseball? Someone like Newcomb has more developent than a 20 year old whose been playing baseball year round since 15.

Scouting is not a spreadsheet. I agree that once players are in the big league's most of these metrics are great analysis tools. It just doesn't work with prospects

Newk is not 'bad', regardless of what some might say. He has one flaw that is always the last thing to be honed. He is a career 3.29 ERA,doesn't get hit hard, and has a K rate over 10 for his pro career. He has everything he needs to be a quality major leaguer. He, like Giolito, Nola, Glasnow, and many more big prospects, have to over come the command of pitching. He is ready outside of that.

[Russ2dollas]

Which is precisely why teams should not hesitate to trade away hitters outside the Top 25, and pitchers outside the Top 10, unless the prospects are super young like the cases of Acuna, Maitan, Anderson, and maybe Touki (though he is on the verge).

A prospect in his early 20s and/or AA is almost a 50/50 chance to be a bust (defined as less than 3 WAR total at the MLB level) if he is outside the Top 25 as a hitter or Top 10 as a pitcher. Those are the guys everyone keeps waiting to "figure it out", but they ultimately never do.

Knowing this, the Braves should be pushing to trade Newcomb in any deal they make to improve the MLB roster next offseason. Guys like Blair and Jenkins are already in the AAAA bin as far as value goes.

I don't agree they should move someone for anything to improve MLB. I doubt you meant it that way. For example I wouldn't trade Newcombe for one year of JD Drew.

Newcombe could very well be improving MLB for us by next offseason.

I do think you have to be willing to make a deal. But you need to get a guy who can provide 2+ WAR and be controlled for multiple years.

[Southcack77]

Remember Blair was top 40 last year on this list and Jenkins made the just missed list.

Also Ellis and Sims were both top 100 at some point for Law. It's not a guarantee of any future value.

Just re-read Klaw's last year's list (Touki on it at 80) and it's amazing Blair then vs Blair now.

I don't quite understand why a failed first attempt at the majors is a death sentience to a prospect. Obviously, some pretty good pitchers have been shelled in their first taste. I suspect Blair will get another opportunity somewhere.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Newk is not 'bad', regardless of what some might say. He has one flaw that is always the last thing to be honed. He is a career 3.29 ERA,doesn't get hit hard, and has a K rate over 10 for his pro career. He has everything he needs to be a quality major leaguer. He, like Giolito, Nola, Glasnow, and many more big prospects, have to over come the command of pitching. He is ready outside of that.

I feel like he's a fifth starter right now with a chance to be better with better control.

[Southcack77]

I don't think it's as simple as looking at their age. What about guys that are late to baseball? Someone like Newcomb has more developent than a 20 year old whose been playing baseball year round since 15.

Scouting is not a spreadsheet. I agree that once players are in the big league's most of these metrics are great analysis tools. It just doesn't work with prospects

I think there is probably a more meaningful statistical profile than the batch of minor league pitchers in general. Probably can refine it down a bit to get a group that looks more like him and might be a bit more applicable.

Sort of like running calculations on the advisability of a bunt in a particular situation based on the average plate appearance rather than the realities of the matchup. A bunt might be a losing play based on the average at bat, but a winning play based on the pitcher/batter.

I kind of think a plus stuff left who misses bats but struggles with control might have a different expectation than minor league pitchers in general. You'd have to have those numbers to really know. And then you would know that the expectation is that you would have results on both sides of the baseline.

.....

I do agree that cashing in prospects for established major league players makes a ton of sense in most circumstances. In the Braves current circumstance, though, I think they might be better off scratching off their lottery tickets. They have shown they can recycle the middling tickets for new ones to some degree.

[UNCBlue012]

Blair just looked really really horrible -- flat, really. I think he's a much better pitcher than what we saw, but he was terrible through most starts. That being said, his last start was just terrific. He had so much life on his fastball.

[Russ2dollas]

I don't quite understand why a failed first attempt at the majors is a death sentience to a prospect. Obviously, some pretty good pitchers have been shelled in their first taste. I suspect Blair will get another opportunity somewhere.

Didn't say it was.

Just saying that top 40 Klaw ranking is far from a guarantee of success.

[CJ9]

The 21-40 rankings are up. Acuna is 36, Allard is 32 and Albies is 26.

There must've been a misprint or something in his Atlanta team report about Anderson not being in the top six. There's no way that anyone in the system is in the top 20 besides Swanson.

[thethe]

Hmmm...I guess touki won't be in the list.

[Russ2dollas]

Hmmm...I guess touki won't be in the list.

Touki or Soroka prob hits the just missed it list.

[thewupk]

The 21-40 rankings are up. Acuna is 36, Allard is 32 and Albies is 26.

There must've been a misprint or something in his Atlanta team report about Anderson not being in the top six. There's no way that anyone in the system is in the top 20 besides Swanson.

Yeah I doubt Anderson is that high. Did Law do a midseason top 50 last year? Curious where Albies would of been on that list for him. He was top 15 in most other publications.

[smootness]

The 21-40 rankings are up. Acuna is 36, Allard is 32 and Albies is 26.

There must've been a misprint or something in his Atlanta team report about Anderson not being in the top six. There's no way that anyone in the system is in the top 20 besides Swanson.

Agreed. Maybe he meant to type something like 'could barely crack' the top 6 and made a mistake. Oh well, 4 in the top 36, 7 in the top 60, and 9 in the top 100 is still pretty insane.

Albies seems a bit low on this one, but I'm guessing he just won't ever rank a guy with so little power much higher than that.

[smootness]

Yeah I doubt Anderson is that high. Did Law do a midseason top 50 last year? Curious where Albies would of been on that list for him. He was top 15 in most other publications.

Anderson was 52. He just said in his team rankings that Anderson was drafted 3rd yet couldn't crack Atlanta's top 6, yet it looks like he will indeed be 6th.