2017 Opening Day Roster Taking Shape

[Enscheff]

Yes but admitting this cold fact undermines the "Coppy is a genius" narrative.

Coppy IS a genius...compared to Dave Stewart. Without Stewart the Braves rebuild would be in dire straits.

So...thank you Dave!! Coppy owes you his job.

[Enscheff]

some people around here wrote Peraza off for no good reason and seem stuck in that mindset

They wrote Peraza off because the Braves traded him away, so that's what homers do.

[Enscheff]

I'm not saying that they didn't have value at the time of the trade. Like I said, it was a bad deal and I said so at the time it was made. I've never liked that deal.

But in hindsight (which is what we're using by saying it was horrendous because Olivera sucks), Wood has been bad the last 2 years, and Peraza is never likely to amount to anything. So both of them have less value now than they did at the time of the trade, and neither is likely to become anything.

One of the worst trades in the history of the franchise can't be viewed years down the road as a 'wait, who are any of these guys on either side?' Bad deal that was made worse by bad luck but also made better by good luck. Still bad, just definitely not in 'worst trade ever' territory.

"Worst trade in franchise history" is obviously an extreme exaggeration.

I can at least understand the thought process behind acquiring what the Braves thought Olivera was (a fixture at 3B acquired right when young pitchers like Wisler, Newcomb, Jenkins and Blair were ready to make the team competitive), but I can not excuse them for not knowing he couldn't play 3B. The only possible explanation for not knowing that fact is not seeing him play in live action for a year or more.

That lack of knowledge is completely indefensible, even by you most ardent posi-Brave homers.

[nsacpi]

it's called ex-bravesitis...a strange phenomenon to be sure

in his case it was even stranger because the writing off began before he was traded...i would call it bright new shining objectitis (BNSO)...with the bright new object being Albies...i think Albies is the better prospect but in no way did that change my appreciation for Peraza's potential

an even more bizzare case of BNSO came up recently when Demeritte had a good Arizona Fall League...it triggered quite a bit of discussion about trading Albies...that episode seems to have died down

[smootness]

"Worst trade in franchise history" is obviously an extreme exaggeration.

I can at least understand the thought process behind acquiring what the Braves thought Olivera was (a fixture at 3B acquired right when young pitchers like Wisler, Newcomb, Jenkins and Blair were ready to make the team competitive), but I can not excuse them for not knowing he couldn't play 3B. The only possible explanation for not knowing that fact is not seeing him play in live action for a year or more.

That lack of knowledge is completely indefensible, even by you most ardent posi-Brave homers.

I won't deny that. Again, my issue is simply with trying to paint it as one of the worst trades the Braves have ever made, which is just not true considering what we gave up.

[smootness]

How can you say Peraza won't likely ever amount to much? He's torn the cover off the ball in the majors and has stolen a crap load of bases so far. He's having a huge spring and was a top prospect. I agree with a lot of your posts but I don't see how you come to this conclusion.

If anything Peraza is a ton more valuable now because he's actually shown he can be a very good MLB starter. Really confused about your Peraza evaluation. I think you should go look at the numbers.

Peraza's BABIP in the majors last year was .361. His BABIP will likely be above .300, but it won't be that good. Look at his minor league track record, and you're talking about a guy who probably can't be expected to post an OPS much above .700 long-term. And he stole 21 bases...in 31 attempts, after stealing 10 in 17 attempts in AAA last year.

He could end up making me look stupid by saying that, but I don't see it and didn't when he was in the Braves system. Well, I'll say that I bought the hype to some degree in 2014, but after his year in Gwinnett in 2015, I was fine with us letting him go. And I was fine with us trading Wood, too. My issue with that trade always was that Olivera was the main piece, which I didn't like then and certainly hate now.

But trading Wood and Peraza? Never had an issue with that.

[smootness]

I mean... it just seems like you are ignoring a basic reality.

Alex Wood and Jose Peraza are BOTH good players.

Alex Wood has produced 2.3 WAR per 150 IP over the last 3 years. And last year was his best WAR/IP.

Jose Peraza averaged 1.6 WAR extrapolated over 600 PAs last year. He hit .324 and stole 21 bases in just 72 games... at age 22. His WAR was hurt by his defense, which is probably an aberration due to him playing multiple positions and playing sporadically... I'd expect playing full time at 2b will really help his defense, and also expect his offense to come back down this year.

No matter how you slice it, both are good players. Both are young. Both are cheap. And we replaced them with the likes of Bartolo Colon (@ $13M), Brandon Phillips (washed up, who the Reds shipped out to make room for Peraza), and Matt Kemp - a league average player making upper echelon money for the next 3 years.

Just depends on your definition of 'good' and you'd have to stretch it pretty far for both of those guys to fit.

Wood has been worth 0.5 WAR according to BR the last two years. FG has him higher for sure, so to some degree it depends on which formula you like better. I prefer the formula centered around ERA for pitchers, but I'm fine if you want to say that you think he's been better because of his FIP. His success going forward will be largely tied to his K rate, which suddenly took a huge step forward last year. Can he keep that up? We'll see. But he's having trouble cracking the Dodgers rotation, which doesn't seem to suggest he's a good young pitcher we gave up. But we'll see.

Peraza, as I said in the post above, I certainly don't think is a good major league player right now, and I don't think he ever will be. He's fine as an option or a utility guy, but I don't see him ever becoming a good major league starting 2B.

[thethe]

some people around here wrote Peraza off for no good reason and seem stuck in that mindset

I never cared about losing Alex Wood. Peraza will be useful for a few years while he's cheap.

[thewupk]

Just depends on your definition of 'good' and you'd have to stretch it pretty far for both of those guys to fit.

Wood has been worth 0.5 WAR according to BR the last two years. FG has him higher for sure, so to some degree it depends on which formula you like better. I prefer the formula centered around ERA for pitchers, but I'm fine if you want to say that you think he's been better because of his FIP. His success going forward will be largely tied to his K rate, which suddenly took a huge step forward last year. Can he keep that up? We'll see. But he's having trouble cracking the Dodgers rotation, which doesn't seem to suggest he's a good young pitcher we gave up. But we'll see.

Peraza, as I said in the post above, I certainly don't think is a good major league player right now, and I don't think he ever will be. He's fine as an option or a utility guy, but I don't see him ever becoming a good major league starting 2B.

The 0.5 is just his time with the Dodgers in 2015 and all of 2016. His total bWAR those 2 years is 2.7. The big difference between the two pitching WAR is that Fangraphs is more predictive based and takes defense completely out whereas Baseball ref does not. And the Dodgers defense did Wood no favors in his limited time last year. 5 unearned runs in 60 innings is absurd and a 68 LOB% is pretty low. He wasn't getting much help at all.

[Knucksie]

Why did the Dodgers unload Peraza?

[Russ2dollas]

I never cared about losing Alex Wood. Peraza will be useful for a few years while he's cheap.

Alex Wood would have started for us every year. He'd be one of our top 5 starters now. And he'd be cheaper than any of the 3 old guys we had.

Peraza is a good player. Overhyped b/c of our bad system. But if he was our Jace Peterson we'd be better.

Both guys should have been available but for someone 25 or younger. Getting anyone over 30 made no sense. It was a bad deal.

I'm still waiting for the explanation as to why our scouts missed so bad. B/c we were all over Olivera as a FA too. We LOVED him. And he was awful at baseball and old. And we moved him off 3B w/o playing him there. We screwed up Big time.

That said, all GMs make bad deals. I think we are much better off now. I like Coppy's overall record. I still don't like the CK and Simba deals.

When you hire a first time GM, even w/ Hart, you are going to have some growing pains.

But as bad as Olivera was the Miller deal was better. The jury is still out on the draft picks but so far I like it. Attaching BJ to CK was a mistake IMO but the JUp deal looks great right now IMO.

I don't get why most ppl on this site seem to be all or nothing on Coppy and every move. Most things in life aren't that black and white.

[striker42]

Why did the Dodgers unload Peraza?

Because they got a strong offer for him. The Reds valued Peraza more than pretty much any other team.

[thethe]

Alex Wood would have started for us every year. He'd be one of our top 5 starters now. And he'd be cheaper than any of the 3 old guys we had.

Peraza is a good player. Overhyped b/c of our bad system. But if he was our Jace Peterson we'd be better.

Both guys should have been available but for someone 25 or younger. Getting anyone over 30 made no sense. It was a bad deal.

I'm still waiting for the explanation as to why our scouts missed so bad. B/c we were all over Olivera as a FA too. We LOVED him. And he was awful at baseball and old. And we moved him off 3B w/o playing him there. We screwed up Big time.

That said, all GMs make bad deals. I think we are much better off now. I like Coppy's overall record. I still don't like the CK and Simba deals.

When you hire a first time GM, even w/ Hart, you are going to have some growing pains.

But as bad as Olivera was the Miller deal was better. The jury is still out on the draft picks but so far I like it. Attaching BJ to CK was a mistake IMO but the JUp deal looks great right now IMO.

I don't get why most ppl on this site seem to be all or nothing on Coppy and every move. Most things in life aren't that black and white.

I didn't mind trading Wood because he was a ticking time bomb. I'm not so sure that the Braves would have slotted him in as a starting pitcher for this season going into the new park. How can you rely on a regular workload for him? When he pitches hes good. There is no denying that but there has been talk on him even before we drafted him that his arm was ready to blow (moreso than any other pitchers risk of that happening).

I think Peraza is a good type of player to have before his arb 2 season. That is his value.

[smootness]

Alex Wood would have started for us every year. He'd be one of our top 5 starters now. And he'd be cheaper than any of the 3 old guys we had.

Peraza is a good player. Overhyped b/c of our bad system. But if he was our Jace Peterson we'd be better.

Both guys should have been available but for someone 25 or younger. Getting anyone over 30 made no sense. It was a bad deal.

I'm still waiting for the explanation as to why our scouts missed so bad. B/c we were all over Olivera as a FA too. We LOVED him. And he was awful at baseball and old. And we moved him off 3B w/o playing him there. We screwed up Big time.

That said, all GMs make bad deals. I think we are much better off now. I like Coppy's overall record. I still don't like the CK and Simba deals.

When you hire a first time GM, even w/ Hart, you are going to have some growing pains.

But as bad as Olivera was the Miller deal was better. The jury is still out on the draft picks but so far I like it. Attaching BJ to CK was a mistake IMO but the JUp deal looks great right now IMO.

I don't get why most ppl on this site seem to be all or nothing on Coppy and every move. Most things in life aren't that black and white.

This is pretty much where I am, great post. I'm not going to attempt to claim Coppy has won every deal or is a genius that puts all other GMs to shame. But I like his basic approach, which is to value upside, draft picks, and youth.

It's also why I was confused by the Olivera deal and didn't like it.

[DirkPiggler]

Hopefully the scout that fell in love with Olivera was traded to the Padres along with him.

Like Enscheff said, the trade made a ton of sense if Olivera was what the front office believed him to be. But how on earth did anyone who gets paid to evaluate baseball players watch that guy and think "franchise cornerstone?"

[sturg33]

I don't get why most ppl on this site seem to be all or nothing on Coppy and every move. Most things in life aren't that black and white.

I'm not one of those people... I've said multiple times that I've given him a C+... but people didn't like that

[Russ2dollas]

I didn't mind trading Wood because he was a ticking time bomb. I'm not so sure that the Braves would have slotted him in as a starting pitcher for this season going into the new park. How can you rely on a regular workload for him? When he pitches hes good. There is no denying that but there has been talk on him even before we drafted him that his arm was ready to blow (moreso than any other pitchers risk of that happening).

I think Peraza is a good type of player to have before his arb 2 season. That is his value.

Klaw was big on saying his motion was going to injure him or make him a RP. He blew out once.

But he was healthy and good for the Braves. You don't just dump someone like that. De La Cruz started for us last year, I'd bet my house Wood would have been a starter for us.

Peraza has the tools to be a really good super utility player. That is valuable. Especially on a team that thinks it's a good idea to have an 8 man pen (it's not).

[Enscheff]

Klaw was big on saying his motion was going to injure him or make him a RP. He blew out once.

But he was healthy and good for the Braves. You don't just dump someone like that. De La Cruz started for us last year, I'd bet my house Wood would have been a starter for us.

Peraza has the tools to be a really good super utility player. That is valuable. Especially on a team that thinks it's a good idea to have an 8 man pen (it's not).

Wasn't Peraza being worked out in CF a bit too? Don't the Braves need a RHed hitter capable of playing CF? Wouldn't guy that can back up SS, 2B, and CF while making the minimum be extremely valuable on a team with a 4 man bench?

Trading for Olivera was bad enough, but then The Genius compounded the issue by making another bad trade by acquiring Kemp.

The hits just keep on rolling from The Genius!

[Russ2dollas]

Wasn't Peraza being worked out in CF a bit too? Don't the Braves need a RHed hitter capable of playing CF?

Trading for Olivera was bad enough, but then The Genius compounded the issue by making another bad trade by acquiring Kemp.

The hits just keep on rolling from The Genius!

He was. Peraza over Bonifacio.........come on. Does anyone prefer Bonifacio? I'm not going to get worked up about Peraza or Wood, but trading those guys for Olivera makes no sense. It would have made more sense to trade one of them to the marlins for the pick strait up.

[Russ2dollas]

They released Paco and kept EOF....

I liked Paco's upside. With room on the 40 man I'm curious to releasing him with an option left.

I do not believe if EOF. I think we owe him b/c we Freddied his arm. He should get a desk job for 10 years at 100K to make up for it. But the first sign of him doing well in a MLB game I'm looking to flip him for anything of value and bring up Paco....but Paco's gone.