Just saw these charts on Baseball Savant. I'll post links to the images of base hits allowed to drop by Heyward vs Kemp.
Heyward:
Kemp:
You can easily see just how many hits Kemp allowed to fall in the Easy, Routine, and Tough ranges compared to an elite defender like Heyward. These charts do a wonderful job of illustrating how Kemp costs a team 20+ runs on defense when he lets all those fly balls drop. Many of those become extra-base hits and cause considerable damage.
I like this data. I wish I could see the plays each dot represents.
"Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.
It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
That's insane. They both allowed basically the same number in the white range, (31 for Heyward, 32 for Kemp) which makes sense, since those are essentially uncatchable.
Beyond that, the difference is pretty incredible. Kemp allowed 21 more hits in the 'Highlight' area and 22 more in the 'Tough' area. He allowed 7 more in the 'Routine' area and 3 more in the 'Easy' area. So Kemp allowed 54 more hits than Heyward. Kemp had 287 chances to Heyward's 276. They call this 'base hits allowed,' but I don't know if their errors are included in these numbers or not; I assume they're not. If they're not, then you can basically just add their chances total and the number of hits allowed to find how many balls were hit in their area. I have Kemp as allowing 109 hits, Heyward allowing 55.
So out of only balls hit in their area, opposing hitters batted .275 when hitting to Kemp, .166 when hitting to Heyward. I think this helps illustrate why defense can be worth as much as these advanced metrics say it is. It's easy to say, 'Eh, what's the difference, 15 fly balls? I don't think it makes that big a difference.' But when you see it's a difference of 54 hits, or from .166 to .275, it starts putting it into better perspective.
ETA: I assumed none of these were errors, but how on earth is a ball with more than 6 seconds of hang time that ends up less than 60 feet from where an OF was standing not ruled an error?
Last edited by smootness; 01-30-2017 at 03:03 PM.
Except Kemp plays LF and Heyward plays right. Also, Heyward is an elite defender being paid a huge number for marginal offense and elite defense. Kemp is a terrible defender being paid big money for his offense.Originally Posted by smootness
No one has ever argued that Heyward isn't an elite defender in right that I know of.
But, what are the numbers (graph) for, let's say, an league average LF defensively and Kemp? Obviously I don't know but would expect that the hit total difference would be much closer.
How does Kiermaier compare to Heyward for example? The Cubs flirted with the idea of playing Heyward in CF.
Could you take a hypothetical all world defense/no offense RF and play him instead of Heyward and save even more runs at the expense of what little offense Heyward brings at virtually the ML minimum?
The graphs are interesting but not all that contextual. Is Heyward a much better defender than Kemp? Without question, even if you overlook that they are currently playing different positions. Heyward is a more valuable defensive player (and more valuable than most OF and is paid for that). But, defense alone isn't the whole story as everyone knows.
I think you missed the point of my post. I wasn't trying to argue that defense is everything, and of course we already knew Heyward is a much better defender than Kemp. But how large that difference really is has absolutely been debated, and the general consensus seems to be that many of the advanced metrics and figures like WAR overstate how big that difference is. I think this chart is a good illustration to show that perhaps that gap really is that large.
The discussion of whether Kemp's offense makes up for that difference is an entirely different discussion, one that I'm not trying to have. But determining the accuracy of the advanced metrics is an important piece to that discussion. It is acknowledged among pretty much all that 54 more hits than another hitter is a big difference and is very valuable. Well, that difference is equally as valuable on the defensive side.
If you add 54 hits to Heyward's year offensively last year, even if they're all singles, his line jumps to .332/.396/.426. If he hits even a little closer to what he typically does, and you consider that several of those hits were surely doubles and perhaps a triple or two, and that line jumps up a ton.
Last edited by smootness; 01-30-2017 at 03:36 PM.
Wonder if that chart could be broken down between SD and ATL. Fewer chances in Atl but would like to see how a better CF could affect those numbers. basically, if a ball in the gap between Heyward and Fowler might get caught by Fowler and not get logged. But a ball hit 30 feet to the right of Kemp might fall because the CF couldn't cover the ground either. I assume that would be a dot on both the CF and LF chart.
Also, is 'distance for ball landing' where the ball landed in relation to where the fielder was positioned or from where the fielder was at when the 'ball landed'? I assume the later, but clarification would be nice.
I have always said that defense is underrated.. impossible to quantify a pitchers ERA with good fielding vs. poor fielding. But a weak arm RF, slow LF, crappy 3B and SS play could all be factors to some of our pitching struggles.. especially with rookies. Hopefully over the next few years we will see improvements on the defense as the team develops. I like Ozzie/Swanson/Ender up the middle.. would love a strong arm RF again.. I could live with Kemp if we had that..
I think a lot of posters have used the excuse of defensive stats being imprecise and volatile to discount defensive value.
I have said defensive stats are volatile and imprecise, but not to discount defense. I rate defense very highly.. I just think measuring defense is a lot more difficult than offense.
I would assume the distance is the distance from where the ball landed to where the fielder was positioned originally. It would be pretty tough to expect any defender to make a play on any ball that landed more than a foot or two away from him. I don't think they would categorize any play in which a ball landed 120 feet away from a fielder to be a routine play.
As for the CF discussion, it would be interesting to see if any of these were also listed on the chart for another player. I could see an OF and a SS or 2B potentially having some overlap as well. But I would imagine that in those cases, almost all of them would be considered 'routine'. You would have to get pretty close to that 120-foot mark for it to be a play truly in between two players, and you only see a few on these charts anywhere close to that.
Last edited by smootness; 01-30-2017 at 03:58 PM.
I'm guessing it would have to be a sun ball during a day game. Those are always counted as hits as far as I know.
Based on the Kemp and Heyward data, I would imagine an average defender with 0 runs produced defensively would have only allowed ~82 hits given the same number of chances. You can look it up easily enough yourself though.
According to Smoot, Kemp allowed 109 hits, while Heyward allowed 55 hits. That difference of 54 hits is almost exactly the difference in their defensive run values. Assuming each missed ball to the OF costs a team ~1 run (which seems reasonable), it passes the sniff test.
yeah, I guess that is a safe assumption and I should have really thought about the question before asking.
How far do you think fielders are from each other. I would think 100 feet between infield and OF.. and maybe 120ish between OF on average. I would definitely think there would be overlap depending on depth of 'hit'
Defense is a lot harder to measure than offense. But information like this shows we have a pretty strong understanding of who the good/bad defenders are and how they compare to the league as a whole.
That does sound right. The vast majority of those hits are going to be doubles and triples. Those lead to runs quite frequently.
Good call.
You're right, I'm dumb. I was just thinking about the distance between the OFs themselves. I still doubt there's a lot of overlap, as most of these have little hang time.
Its a good quick refrence but if I would have someone going over each one of those plays if I was using it to make roster decisions.
"Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.
It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
But against and average defender (using Enscheff's 82 figure), Heyward is 27 hits better, not 54 (Kemp IS awful, no question).
As to the value of defense in War, to rate oWar and dWar as equal, then you are saying that an OF with a 3 dWar and a -1.7 oWar would have a monetary value of somewhere along the lines of $7M x (~1.3) = $9.1M and I can't buy that. I think there are many "defensive whizzes" in the minors that never sniff the ML because they can't hit a lick and if they do get to the ML they never play enough to have a 3 dWar impact. Heyward is an anomaly having tantalized with enough offense to get a big contract on faith which requires the Cubs to run him out there every day instead of using him as a defensive replacement.
How does Ender compare with Heyward? That may be a more interesting comparison? Comparing defensive stats of Kemp and Heyward is like comparing zero to sixty times of a Corvette versus a Honda Civic. My bet is that Ender will be near equal to Heyward but with a contract 60% less.
Sorry, I don't think I'm explaining myself well. I'm not trying to show what Heyward's line would be if he were hitting to Kemp all the time. I'm assuming that on average, they both hit against average defenders already.
I'm saying that as a way to quantify the defensive gap between them and to compare their value in a simple way, if you take away the 54 hits Heyward saved relative to Kemp defensively and add them to his offensive output, it raises his profile quite a bit, and it's easier to compare. It's not a perfect way to account for the defensive difference, but I don't think it's without merit. That way you're no longer talking about defense, you've removed that from the equation, and it's an interesting way to compare.
As for the second paragraph, I would argue that a guy whose WAR is 1.3 despite an offensive WAR of -1.7 is not going to be in the majors, but it's because of the way front offices still view offense. Doesn't mean it's right.
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