THe Braves' fear of extensions.

[rico43]

The Braves' biggest problem down the road: being cheap. REAL cheap. Great MLBTR artcle, free so I am posting it here.


Will The Braves Seek To Extend Their Young Core?
By Jeff Todd [September 6, 2013 at 10:26pm CST]
It's no secret that Atlanta plays home to one of the best collections of young, established big leaguers in the game. The Braves have steamrolled back to the top of the NL East this season, led by that youthful core. Even as the team focuses on the coming post-season, it is worth considering whether, and when, Atlanta will follow the baseball-wide trend of locking up talent through early extensions over the coming offseason.

The list of reasonable possibilities is extensive, and impressive: first baseman Freddie Freeman; Andrelton Simmons at short; outfielder Jason Heyward; maybe even third-bagger Chris Johnson. Then, there are the pitchers: Craig Kimbrel, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Jonny Venters, and Julio Teheran could all make sense, either now or in the foreseeable future. These players -- eight of the team's top nine in terms of fWAR (excepting the injured Beachy and Venters) -- have all yet to reach their second year of arbitration.

With this many candidates, it is difficult to analyze each player on his own merit. (MLBTR has recently looked at the cases for Heyward and Medlen, though the situations of both players have changed somewhat over the season.) As a whole, though, it seems that the Braves have an even greater opportunity -- albeit, a more complicated one -- than those availed of recently by so many other teams. As MLBTR's Zach Links has explained, the increasing utilization of early-career extensions has created fears that the free agent market will be depressed. Such extensions, Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus wrote, have become "the mainstream strategy."

To date, however, the Braves have not locked up any of their young stars. After passing on Michael Bourn, Atlanta is poised to do the same with 29-year-old catcher Brian McCann and 28-year-old reliever Eric O'Flaherty, both of whom reach free agency after distinguishing themselves with the Braves. (MLBTR's Mark Polishuk profiled the extension case for O'Flaherty in March of last year, a year before he was lost to Tommy John surgery; Mike Axisa did the same for Bourn in January of 2012.)

It is not just the recent crop: in the nearly six-year reign of GM Frank Wren, Atlanta has not extended a single player who had less than five years of MLB service time at the time of the deal. The last extension of any kind that the team completed was the five-year, $62MM contract given Dan Uggla in January of 2011, which was agreed upon immediately after he was traded for -- hardly an example of baseball's recent trend. Over Wren's six years, aside from the Uggla deal, the team has only committed $82.25MM in total to extensions, every penny of which went to grizzled veterans Tim Hudson, Chipper Jones, David Ross, and Rafael Soriano.

Of course, there are good explanations for the team's disinclination to focus on extending its core over the last offseason. The front office had other business: it pulled off a blockbuster deal for Justin Upton, who had already been extended by his former club, and inked B.J. Upton to a five-year contract as a free agent.

With at least two years of control still remaining on Atlanta's admirable array of youngsters, there is ample time to act. And the team has plenty of flexibility: at present, its total future commitments are just $42.4MM for 2014, $42MM for 2015, $15.45MM for 2016, and $16.45MM for 2017. (Of course, virtually all of those obligations are tied up in three players, Uggla and the Upton brothers.)

Wren could look to bag the players with less service time while a bargain is still possible, or could focus on extending control over those that are closer to reaching the open market. (This latter group could include the younger Upton, whose deal expires after 2015.) Or, he could continue to let his players earn their salaries year to year, at least for another season. After all, none figure to come cheap. Whether the Braves aim to work out long-term deals as the cost begins to rise through the arbitration process -- and, if so, how they prioritize negotiations amongst so many viable candidates -- will be fascinating to watch over the coming winter and spring.

[thethe]

I will always root for the laundry but its going to be harder if these kids aren't signed long term.

[Teheran_49]

As much as I love Mac I just can't see us signing him long term when we have so many young guys we will have to give contracts. Will we re-sign them all? I seriously doubt it but at the same time we do have quite of bit of money coming off the books in the next two years. To me FF,Heyward and J-Up should be priorities as we still have time on Andrelton and I want to see Chris Johnson another year before I would make a decision on him.

As far as the pitching staff goes I could care less about giving big money to BP arms not named Kimbrel. EOF and Venters have been outstanding for us but their also coming off serious injuries and to expect anything from them next year would be foolish. Mike Minor is a must on the pitching staff and should be a no brainer. Is he your typical "Ace"? No but how many teams have a Kershaw,Verlander or Harvey? I also want to see Medlen locked up as well. Medlen is a pretty good pitcher and is at no worse a good #3 on a staff. Medlen is also starting to enter the prime of his pitching career and with us not really having any sure fire SP in the upper minors were going to need him for a few years. Also, I'm kind of leery of Beachy right now and I wouldn't count on him bouncing back so Medlen has to be a no brainer as well. I also don't think he should break the bank and I would think a 5 year 35 mil. with incentives should get it done.

[50PoundHead]

The problem with the logic of the writer is that he fails to point out the long term commitments to guys like Lowe and Uggla and it doesn't dwell on B.J. Upton's contract other than to mention it. You can only spend a dollar once and if we are the mid-budget team that Liberty insists we are, every dollar has to be spent within a well-defined strategy. My only complaint about Wren is that he doesn't seem to adhere to much of any overarching framework when making decisions. We needed a CF and signed B.J. Upton. We can (and have) argued about the size of the contract, but the more salient point is whether or not a cheaper option should have been found or the contract being limited to a shorter term in order to invest in guys who are obviously going to start costing money.

[Runnin]

This crazy system of throwing huge amounts of money at players for future performance isn't fair to anyone. A more balanced system of income with at least half coming from how you perform during the present year would be better. Especially the way some of these young players can perform like superstars for a season or part of a season, get hurt and then miss out on their big payday.

[GovClintonTyree]

Early career extensions are the backbone of any mid-market team. I remember reading somewhere that they approached Heyward and he was not receptive. Surprising and disappointing if true.

I would be in favor of liberal extensions with this group. Including pitchers, though I know nsacpi and others don't want to spend on pitchers. I don't want to spend on old pitchers. But I don't think a core like this comes along very often.

If we could lock down the 8-10 core guys, we'll compete for 5 years.

[nsacpi]

Timing is very important on these contracts. You want to sign them the year before the player's big breakout years. Of course, predicting when that breakout year happens is difficult. I like what the Pirates did with McCutchen.

[cajunrevenge]

My trade idea to fix this logjam payroll situation is a 3 way trade.
Dodgers get kimbrel/uggla
mets get andre ethier plus cash from dodgers
Braves get daniel murphy from the mets and corey seager from the dodgers.

For the dodgers they need to unload ethier and with his contract has negative value. There has been a lot of speculation the mets could go after him since their outfield is really bad. The dodgers also get the best closer in the game. Adding kimbrel gives them the best closer/setup duo in the game. Very important for playoff baseball. They don't have much at 2b and said they won't pursue Cano so they uggla actually starts for them. They only give up one top prospect because they take uggla back.

For the mets they get Ethier at a discounted rate and hope he returns to form. They give up Murphy who is a good utility player and marginal starter.

For the braves they get around 20 million of payroll flexibility. Murphy could start at 2b or be a good utility player. I would prefer to bring back our old friend Omar Infante and Murphy could platoon with him or Johnson depending on who performs better/worse. They also get a good long term 3b prospect in Corey Seager. I think this trade would let the braves re-sign Mccann so its more like trading kimbrel/uggla for Mccann/murphy/Seager.

[rico43]

Long term deals are inevitable. I would consider Simmons, Minor, Heyward and Freeman the cornerstones at the moment.

I still fear Medlen will be dealt.

[stpeteirish]

extend guys who won't suck in the next few years, if they let you. Sounds simple but its not. Performance is hard to predict and some guys (or their agents) are determined to hit free agency. Players who are not likely to regress significantly are younger, not dependent on one skill, with a minimal injury history to date.

I'd put Freeman and Simmons in there and that's about it. Pitchers are iffy; do you extend the guy who's been healthy so far, or the one who's already had his elbow fixed? Both are risky to me. Relief pitchers are pretty easy to find, I'd be reluctant to extend any of them, even Kimbrel. We won't find another like him, but he's got to be a possibility to have major arm /shoulder problems soon enough. Use him while you can, let someone else pay him the big $.

CJ might be another to extend if the cost is fairly low. He really only has one plus skill, hit for average, and he's projectable at around 50 points below where he is now, but the way our lineup is structured we really need someone like him in there.

[Tapate50]

Long term deals are inevitable. I would consider Simmons, Minor, Heyward and Freeman the cornerstones at the moment.

I still fear Medlen will be dealt.

I woudn't "fear" it until we see what we get. He has considerable value.

[50PoundHead]

Long term deals are inevitable. I would consider Simmons, Minor, Heyward and Freeman the cornerstones at the moment.

I still fear Medlen will be dealt.

I like, but don't love Minor and I'd almost flip a coin between he and Medlen. Minor's being left-handed and a little younger with an ability to go deeper into games likely gives him the nod. I'm just not ready to open up the pursestrings for the guy.

Heyward and Freeman are the absolute musts to keep. I really like Simmons, but I worry some days that he is going to become increasingly "glove only." Granted, that's a great glove he's wearing, but I don't know what that is worth. Elvis Andrus' ridiculous contract has set a bar that the Braves may be unable to match.

[zitothebrave]

We have to keep Jason and Freddie.

[PawPawMaxwell]

We have to keep Jason and Freddie.

First and foremost Jason and Freddie have to want to stay. IMO Freddie is waiting for the day he can go "home" to the Left Coast. Heyward is going to have to put together a couple healthy and productive years in a row to get the big money.

[nsacpi]

The Braves don't have complete control over the process. It takes two to tango.

But there are also some timing issues that have to be worked through. One timing issue is driven by who hits free agency first. That obviously imparts greater urgency to the guys closer, notably Heyward and Justin Upton.

Another issue is that the first guy who signs a long-term deal sets a benchmark of sorts for others. So you want to negotiate that first deal with the guy who is most motivated to stay in Atlanta. I don't know who that guy is, but it is an important task for management to find out his identity.

I think this off-season we should approach both Heyward and Justin Upton. In some ways the timing is better for the club than the players. I'm sure the players would rather negotiate after they put up a monster season. But the club can offer them security in the form a long-term deal.

[zitothebrave]

In my dream world, I presume the Braves don't re-sign Mac (I think calling up Bethancourt to be a sign that could be a reality even though I think it's stupid) they should take all of that money and invest it. First things first, I'd package Medlen, Uggla and Johnson together with some cash to try to get a long term 3B.

My idea is basically try to pull a 3 way deal with a team like say the Dodgers for prospects and slide those guys and maybe another prospect for Miguel Sano. That would be my dream. But no way would a bad team like the Twins trade Sano. A slightly more realistic and interesting trade (upside wise) would be that package for Moosetacos, Kyle Zimmer, and Raul Mondesi (the SS prospect) We take a major league hit, but massively restock the farm. With all that saved money I'd then go for the Justin, Jason, Freddie and Simmons extensions. Simmons should be easy and cheap JMO. Justin we should be able to extend for at least 2 more years if not longer. Jason I'd offer a 10 year contract right now. We have to keep him. Freddie a guy who I would sign for a 7 or 8 and that's about it. I have long term concerns into his 30s but we'll see.

Braves then have an interesting upside and young team.

RF - Jason
2B - LaStella
LF - Justin
1B - Freddie
C - Gattis
3B - Moosetacos
CF - Bossman
SS - Simmons

There are some concerns with that team. Moosetacos hasn't hit yet but he could break out. What he does bring if he doesn't start htting his weight is he brings amazing defense. Having him and Simmons on the left side of the infield would be awesome.

For rotation we'd keep Huddy around.

Minor
Julio
Wood
Hudson
Beachy/whoever.

What I'd like about this trade is we can use the freed up money for higher signing bonuses to push to keep Kimbrel around. Longer.

Anyway it's all a pipe dream, but I hope we can free up some money to keep around our key players.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Ive almost convinced myself that the only way to rid of Uggla is to let Mac go. IMO that would make it more palatable to Wren to eat more money on Uggla's deal. With Gattis, Bethancourt in the fold he could sign another catcher, preferably a LH bat to platoon with the 2 RH,s as needed. Then trade for a 2nd baseman, i.e. Howie Kendrick is an idea. Net cost would still be less than what he is paying Mac and Uggla.

1b being a relatively easy place to find a bat, I would go for 6 years with Freddie. Say somewhere around 60M. If he says no, start preparing now.

Heyward undoubtedly is the most talented player on this team but his history doesnt warrant the big money yet without some tangible proof that he can be consistent and somewhat healthy. Freak injuries happen but they shouldnt happen to the same guy all the time.

Trade chips IMO would include Kimbrel if he gets very expensive. Would Detroit let someone like Castellanos go for Kimbrel.

Not sure I wouldnt shop Justin Upton if all else falls into place.

Not being a minor league guru and having little interest in prospects, Im sure someone with a bent to those areas can refute or improve all of the above.

[50PoundHead]

Terry Ryan seems to have gotten a lobotomy since returning to the Twins' GM position, but everything here in Minny is geared toward the arrival of Buxton, Sano, and Rosario. I don't think there is an offer that could wrest any of those three away from the Twins. Twins desperately need starting pitching and no one thought that KC would trade Myers, so monkeys might fly out of my butt. Rosario needs AAA, but if he didn't the Twins might be predisposed to trading Brian Dozier, who (while having some obvious warts) could turn into a decent offensive 2B.

I'd love to keep McCann, but I am puzzled as to how that could get done without McCann giving a considerable hometown discount either in annual contract amount or length of contract. It's really too bad.

I think the one thing the Braves have to do is start developing some top drawer offensive talent in the minors. There are some guys down there, but not nearly enough.

[cajunrevenge]

I think we all need to let go of this idea of getting rid of Uggla. Best case scenario I think is they just bench him. Maybe when he has 1 year left they can get a similar deal that they got for Lowe paying 2/3rds of his salary to trade him. Best case scenario someone like Ramiro Pena or Tyler Pastornicky hits well enough in limited at bats that it forces their hand like Schafer did with BJ in center. The only positive thing about Uggla is that his salary comes off the books the same offseason that Heyward/Justin would be free agents. If a miracle happens and they convince some horrible GM like Brian Cashman to takes Uggla I would love to bring back Omar Infante. He defense at 2B has got a lot better since he got to play the same position every day and his good batting average would be a nice balance to the low batting averages the rest of the lineup puts out.

[zitothebrave]

Why do we need to bring in a 2B when we have a kid with a near .900 OPS in AA. Sure he's risky but his ceiling is waaaaaay higher than Omar's.