Quintana back in the news (MLBTR)

[Horsehide Harry]

So, it looks like the Chisox are playing the waiting game on moving Quintana. And, with Houston gaining the Card top two picks, they are saying they may be in better position to move players.

Looking at Quintana and Teheran, outside of Q being a lefty and Teheran being 2 full years younger, I don't see much difference. Quintana has been slightly more valuable but has gained that value at an older age than Teheran. Teheran is entering his prime years and Quintana is beginning to exit. Both have great contracts.

The Sox have been adamant with the Stros about wanting Musgrove, Martes and Tucker.

Would you be willing to move Teheran for Bregman and Fisher?

First, would the Stros move Bregman for anybody? They signed Gurriel who's best spot is 3B, so they have a ready replacement and they also have Moran and JD Davis in the minors. So, maybe.

Second, is a Bregman & Fisher ask less than a Musgrove, Martes, Tucker ask? I would say yes.

Third, should the Braves do it? Moving Teheran goes against the off season messaging for sure. But, how big of a difference would Teheran vs Wisler or Blair be as compared to Bregman vs Garcia and longer term Kemp vs Fisher?

[bravesfanMatt]

I would do Bergman and Fisher for JT and then tell Wisler, go and be JT damnit..

[rawwr]

I would absolutely do that deal, but there is no chance the Astros move Bregman.

[Horsehide Harry]

I would do Bergman and Fisher for JT and then tell Wisler, go and be JT damnit..

Yeah...

I really like the idea of a Freeman, Albies, Swanson, Bregman infield for the next six to ten years. And Fisher could certainly be a better LF prospect than any currently in the Braves system (Unless Maitan moves there, and assuming Acuna is a CF or RF).

Teheran is a fine. I have no issues with him. However, if you are going to spend 2-3 years collecting arms, you have to work on the premise that some of those arms will make a more than viable replacement for Teheran.

[Horsehide Harry]

I would absolutely do that deal, but there is no chance the Astros move Bregman.

Maybe not but I would make them tell me no.

[smootness]

I would absolutely do that deal, but there is no chance the Astros move Bregman.

Agreed. And I've read more than one person say the Astros' best move is to put Bregman at SS and move Correa to 3B.

[Enscheff]

I would absolutely do that deal, but there is no chance the Astros move Bregman.

This.

[bravesfanMatt]

I think the Stros would move Bregman, but not for JT.. I also don't think the Braves would trade JT straight up for Bregman. I would love to have that infield.. but I just don't see a fit. Bregman and Fisher.. that is a no brainer!!

[Russ2dollas]

I think the trade to make on a message board that would never happen in real life:
Package JT + FF for Bregman and a haul. FF probably loosens up Bregman and then the Braves can find someone (Kemp?) to play 1B.

No way Coppy does it.

[bravesfanMatt]

I think the trade to make on a message board that would never happen in real life:
Package JT + FF for Bregman and a haul. FF probably loosens up Bregman and then the Braves can find someone (Kemp?) to play 1B.

No way Coppy does it.

That was so 2016.. would have to get Reed, Tucker, and Fisher as well..

[mqt]

I think the trade to make on a message board that would never happen in real life:
Package JT + FF for Bregman and a haul. FF probably loosens up Bregman and then the Braves can find someone (Kemp?) to play 1B.

No way Coppy does it.

I wouldn't move Freeman for Bregman+ at this point. I don't think his 2016 performance is sustainable, but you have to treat him as the MVP candidate he was last year in a deal. We would have to get way more.

[Horsehide Harry]

I think the trade to make on a message board that would never happen in real life:
Package JT + FF for Bregman and a haul. FF probably loosens up Bregman and then the Braves can find someone (Kemp?) to play 1B.

No way Coppy does it.

I floated a few of the JT & Freeman to Houston last year before Freeman blew up in the second half. Freeman was the 8th or 9th best 1B in baseball and is now definitely in the top 3 and arguably #1.

It would take huge balls to move him now.

But, there's still a good chance it would be the right thing to do given the right return.

With Houston it would have to be something like: JT & Freeman for 3B Bregman, RHP Martes, RF Tucker, LF Fisher, 1B Reed and OF Celestino and I'm still not sure that would be enough.

But, if they did it, it would clearly signal 2017 is a continuation of rebuilding instead of an end. It wouldn't be the last trade.

[UNCBlue012]

I think the trade to make on a message board that would never happen in real life:
Package JT + FF for Bregman and a haul. FF probably loosens up Bregman and then the Braves can find someone (Kemp?) to play 1B.

No way Coppy does it.

Last year, I do it and don't look back. With aspirations of truly competing next year, no way I do it now.

[Russ2dollas]

Last year, I do it and don't look back. With aspirations of truly competing next year, no way I do it now.

again...this is an internet debate.

No way they do it in real life. Marketing. Etc Etc.

But i'd do the monster deal in a vacuum. Love FF and JT but I think we have the pitching coming and I think I can find a 1B. I think Bregman could be a monster at 3B.

If I've got Bregman, Swanson, Albies, Kemp in the infield I think I'm pretty good. I've got Reed coming for Kemp. I get a lot of OF options from Houston, including D Peterson as an option if I move Kemp to 1B. I think my overall team is better.

[zbhargrove]

Quintana is much more valuable than Teheran and a much better pitcher.

Just look at their fWAR the past 3 years

Quintana: 4.8, 4.8, 5.1
Teheran: 3.2, 1.1, 3.2

Teheran's best WAR ever was 3.2... Quintana's worst full season ever was still better than that a 3.5

Quintana is a legit ace... under the radar, but definitely an ace. Their value is really not close, sorry.

[Hudson2]

So what would a realistic offer for Quintana be?

[bravesfanMatt]

Quintana is much more valuable than Teheran and a much better pitcher.

Just look at their fWAR the past 3 years

Quintana: 4.8, 4.8, 5.1
Teheran: 3.2, 1.1, 3.2

Teheran's best WAR ever was 3.2... Quintana's worst full season ever was still better than that a 3.5

Quintana is a legit ace... under the radar, but definitely an ace. Their value is really not close, sorry.

I think if you use B-War, you are more in line with the WAR value. I think Q gets a bump in WAR because of the FIP and Homers.. But JT puts up just as good of numbers as Q does.. some better. But I would never say Q is head and shoulders better. contracts are very similar..

Look at their numbers the last 4 years.

............... Q................................................. ....... JT
Year.....bWAR.....IP.......K.......BB......ERA.... .........bWAR......IP.......K.......BB......ERA
2013....5.4........200.....164.....56......3.51... ..........3.2........185....170.....45.....3.20
2014....3.5........200......178....52......3.32... ..........3.9........221....186.....51.....2.89
2015....4..........206.......177....44......3.36.. ..........1.5........200.....171.....73.....4.04
2016....5.2.......208.......181....50.......3.2... ..........4.8........188.....167.....41.....3.21

total.....18.1.....814.......700....202....3.345.. .........13.4......794.....694....210....3.335

[Enscheff]

So what would a realistic offer for Quintana be?

Quintana will be paid $37M over the next 4 years. During that time he could be conservatively projected to produce 16 WAR, which is worth about $128M. That is a surplus value of around $90M. Considering the last 2 years of control are team options, his total downside is even more limited in case of injury. That limited downside also adds value, but it's hard to assign a value.

A surplus value of $90M+ is easily worth 2 Top 25-50 prospects, plus another significant piece. The ChiSox are correct to hold out for the type of deal they are asking from Houston.

Quintana is only a little less valuable than Sale, so a very similar package would be appropriate.