Fangraphs Team WAR Projections

[nsacpi]

Here is how they see the season shaking out:

National League
The thing that jumps out is they are projecting two 100 win teams--the Dodgers (102) and the Cubs (100). The flip side is a bunch of teams projected to win 75 or less games (Reds, Braves, Padres and Brewers). The National League according to these projections will be a league with a very wide dispersion between the top and bottom teams. The gnats (94 wins) are projected to win the East.

The Giants are projected as the best of the rest (90 wins). The second wild card spot appears to be a close contest between the Mets (88), Cards (87) and Pirates (86).

American League
The division winners are projected to be the Red Sox (95), Indians (95) and Astros (93). The Yankees (88), Blue Jays (88), Mariners (87) and Angels (87) are projected to be in a dogfight for the two wildcard spots.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

That seems close to what I would predict based on paper, maybe having the Braves come close to 78 wins.

[thethe]

Are there studies done on how accurate projected WAR is with players in specific age/experience groupings?

[nsacpi]

Here's one look at the accuracy of projection systems for team wins.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ball-forecast/

[nsacpi]

Are there studies done on how accurate projected WAR is with players in specific age/experience groupings?

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...ections-review

not exactly what you asked but in the neighborhood

[thewupk]

That seems about right on what you think entering the season. Dodgers and Cubs are in a class of their own. Gnats are a good team and Giants should be a notch below that. Everyone else is is meh with some obviously better than others.

[nsacpi]

That seems about right on what you think entering the season. Dodgers and Cubs are in a class of their own. Gnats are a good team and Giants should be a notch below that. Everyone else is is meh with some obviously better than others.

I'll venture a bold prediction. The NL will be represented in the WS by a team other than the Cubs or Dodgers.

[thewupk]

I'll venture a bold prediction. The NL will be represented in the WS by a team other than the Cubs or Dodgers.

I wouldn't say it's that bold. The best team often doesn't make it to the WS.

[nsacpi]

I wouldn't say it's that bold. The best team often doesn't make it to the WS.

Hush. I know it wasn't bold either.

The point that is so interesting about baseball is how much is due to luck. A 70 win team has about a 2% chance of finishing above a 90 win team. It is a result-dominated business, and I think a common error that teams make is giving too much weight to the prior season's results when deciding what to do next. For teams that did well, the big risk is standing pat. For teams that did poorly, blowing up the team is a temptation that is often unwise. The smart teams try to control for any luck (both good and bad) that affected their results.

[sturg33]

I wouldn't say it's that bold. The best team often doesn't make it to the WS.

I'll take Cubs, dodgers, and Nats over the field.

[nsacpi]

I'll take Cubs, dodgers, and Nats over the field.

Las Vegas odds say its close to a push. I like the field slightly more.

[thewupk]

Hush. I know it wasn't bold either.

The point that is so interesting about baseball is how much is due to luck. A 70 win team has about a 2% chance of finishing above a 90 win team. It is a result-dominated business, and I think a common error that teams make is giving too much weight to the prior season's results when deciding what to do next. For teams that did well, the big risk is standing pat. For teams that did poorly, blowing up the team is a temptation that is often unwise. The smart teams try to control for any luck (both good and bad) that affected their results.

I would agree with that. Luckily we took advantage of the DBacks when they thought they were better than the were.

[thethe]

Braves 120 wins or bust