Prospect digest 10 prospect listing

[thewupk]

But he is presuming something was available aside from what the braves got. Just curious what he may know.

I am pretty sure if the Braves move Kimbrel by himself we got a lot more offers than what the Padres get us. I am also sure if we weren't infatuated with HO we could have gotten more for Peraza and Wood.

[thethe]

I am pretty sure if the Braves move Kimbrel by himself we got a lot more offers than what the Padres get us. I am also sure if we weren't infatuated with HO we could have gotten more for Peraza and Wood.

I agree we could have gotten a piece that privideo more value now for wood/peraza but at the time I find it unlikely it would have been someone who was as valuable as HO was within the industry

[thewupk]

They had the mindset of getting a valuable asset. Age is irrelevant in that discussion. Braves are not shy about trading non core pieces

HO was a win in 2017 move. A proper rebuild gets prospects back for Wood.

[thewupk]

I agree we could have gotten a piece that privideo more value now for wood/peraza but at the time I find it unlikely it would have been someone who was as valuable as HO was within the industry

The only thing valuable about HO was his contract. Again the Braves gambled on him being something he clearly wasn't. I would have rather taken that risk on prospects.

[thewupk]

In fact Kemp is an extension of that. With HO being dead money they are essentially adding Kemp for about 10 million a year or whatever it was. That doesn't look that bad if Kemp gets close to being a 2 WAR player with good offensive numbers. Braves have been in the market for cheap offense for awhile.

HO burned them badly. Let's hope Kemp isn't the same.

[Enscheff]

I would say Coppy has been the beneficiary of some luck, high draft picks, and good assets to trade. I'd give him a C+.

When you trade Heyward, Upton, Simmons, Gattis, Kimbrel, Wood, Peraza - all of whom's value was good at the time of the deal - you better stock up the system quickly.

I disagree with much of the strategy - using those assets on acquiring high risk pitchers.

I disagree with the Markakis signing - which basically just replaced the dead money of BJ

Also - if you look, 4 of our top 6 prospects were due to Wren (Albies and Acuna) or High draft/international signing (Anderson and Matian).

Looking at the trades... there were two beauties:

1. The Heyward deal - which wasn't a beauty at the time but it sure turned into one with the Miller trade

2. The Gattis deal - getting Folty & Ruiz for Gattis was tremendous value

There were some solid deals:

1. The Upton trade gave us some good assets that was worth the gamble

2. The Gohara trade - this one can still bite us but probably worth the gamble

3. The Touki deal was an interesting gamble... Paying $10M for a high risk prospect is an intriguing bet... but I would have much rather maximized value from Kimbrel if that was indeed the either/or scenario



Then - there were some really bad ones.

1. The Simmons trade was extremely questionable at the time and has resulted in a bad move

2. The Kimbrel trade was questionable at the time and has resulted in a bad move

3. The Olivera trade was baffling at the time and has resulted in a horrendous move, compounded by us now being forced to pay Kemp for another 3 years big money



To me - the bad would have whalloped the good if not for the Swanson deal - which actually saved this rebuild from being a disaster. He gets a C+ from me due to the international investing.

I pretty much agree with this 100%. It doesn't take much of a genius to say, "Justin Upton is available", and then accept the best offer. Any average GM could do that, which is the definition of C.

I liken the Swanson/Inciarte deal with the DBacks to a night playing poker with 5 buddies. Without fail, about an hour into the game, one guy gets bored. He wants to leave, so he is going to go all in on the next hand no matter what. One other guy just so happens to have been dealt a pocket pair on the same hand the bored guy decides he is going all in, so he stays in the hand. Suddenly, one guy just doubled his chip count because he was in the right place at the right time.

This literally was a problem in a poker group, so we made a rule that if you wanted to quit you had to just give your chips to the bank.

Miller was Coppy's pocket pair, and he just so happened to be holding it when Stewart was ready to be doing something stupid.

[Enscheff]

I am pretty sure if the Braves move Kimbrel by himself we got a lot more offers than what the Padres get us. I am also sure if we weren't infatuated with HO we could have gotten more for Peraza and Wood.

You don't have to be pretty sure...you are absolutely, without question, correct.

The Braves tried to mix some "win now" in with the rebuild, and it severely lowered the returns for Kimbrel, Simmons, Wood and Peraza.

Couple that with the fact that the Braves traded for a guy to play 3B that very clearly couldn't play 3B, and I don't see how anyone rates the FO as anything better than "mediocre".

[TheBravos]

You don't have to be pretty sure...you are absolutely, without question, correct.

The Braves tried to mix some "win now" in with the rebuild, and it severely lowered the returns for Kimbrel, Simmons, Wood and Peraza.

Couple that with the fact that the Braves traded for a guy to play 3B that very clearly couldn't play 3B, and I don't see how anyone rates the FO as anything better than "mediocre".

Besides the Shelby trade, all the other "big" trades were average to not great to horrid (considering what we gave up). I think where Coppy has done his best work is in the smaller trades and acquisitions.

No matter what...you HAVE to give Coppy props for the Shelby trade. He did the trade...no other GM did. He has my respect for that trade, because he beat everyone else to the punch.

I will also give Coppy some padding because we don't know what Hart was pushing for. Maybe Coppy wanted to do a full rebuild and Hart a partial. Maybe at some point Coppy talked him into it.

Bottom line...they had plans to do a partial rebuild and then switched to a full. It really hurt the process until they changed strategy.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Heyward and Upton and Gattis trades were good too. You guys got spoiled by the Miller trade into underrating big trades.

Also, if Hector Olivera was not a jerk and had been secretly Miguel Cabrera on that contract, it would have been a good trade even with the age factor. I blame that on our scouting more than Coppy.

The only actually bad trade was Olivera and it hasn't even hurt us. Simmons trade was definitely mediocre, but if Newcomb does decent it will be worth it. Kimbrel trade was also mediocre but it all depends on Wisler's development and how much we get from Krol.

Plus, several of these were Hart moves.

[smootness]

I'm sick of having this debate. We had a 79-win MLB team and no minor league system at all 2 years ago. We are in a much better spot for the future right now. I don't care what grade you want to give the FO, I consider that a good job. Let's move on.

And of course it's easy to throw somebody on the market and take the best offer. The tough part is picking the best offer. We got an injured pitcher coming off TJ and a CF who was hardly a real prospect, and we now have Fried and Gohara to show for them. Say what you want, that's not a C job for one year of Upton.

[Southcack77]

We traded Wood and Perza hoping HO would be a regular with a cheap salary. It was a win now move and not a rebuilding move.

The fact we shouldn't have used Kimbreal to clear Melvins salary. That is not a rebuilding move.

The Simmons deal wasn't as bad but it hasn't turned out good so far. In a perfect world Newcomb progressed and is close to getting a starting job and the SS we got would have played to career levels and could have flipped him in July or got a trade pick for him.

It was just one move. If Oliveira had hit baseball instead of women, he'd have been very tradeable himself.

You'll note that they didn't make a lot of other deals along those lines.

I remain convinced they remained fixated on rebuilding low minors primarily while trying to flip assets for low cost assets near the MLB level who might keep the club respectable or be tradeable for assets more in line with the window.

the biggest change to me was picking up Kemp. That was a real change of gears.

[Southcack77]

Also, even some of you numbers guys are severely overrating some of the Braves assets here and there.

If Alex Wood was super valuable, this is the first that its been reported. My guess is that the Braves and the Dodgers may have preferred younger prospects, but they settled on Oliveira. I don't think anyone was breaking down the door.

I have no problem moving Peraza, though I'm not sure why you'd have put him in that deal exactly. Again, I think his prospect rating might have given people a higher sense of his actual value though. He's a now power second baseman who doesn't walk. Everything is contact and speed. I'm sure the Reds are happy enough with him, but I don't think he was going to fetch a big package and Atlanta had a better version behind him.

But the return just didn't pan out.

[cajunrevenge]

I think people way overvalue Olivera's trade value at the time. I dont think any other team was all that interested in trading much of value for a prospect who was owed that much money who couldnt stay healthy at the time. The dodgers didnt have a place for him to play and I thinknwe bidded againsy ourselves. We could have waited another 6 months or a year and his value would have dropped..I can understand trading Wood for him. I think it was obvious Wood was declining. I cam understand trading Peraza for Olivera. I just could not understand trading both for him. I absolutely hate trading players for cash and thats exactly what this was. We could have had Olivera for cash only a year earlier.

[Russ2dollas]

You can't give Coppy too high a grade b/c he wanted to sign Tebow.

HO is a scouting fail IMO. And One that I don't think they every explained. We LOVED him as a FA and bid a lot for us.

I think they thought Wood was going to get injured and wanted to sell high. Wood hasn't been great outside of ATL. Peraza is just a guy IMO. It was a trade almost universally hated by everyone on this board from the get go. Every GM has at least one of those and most have a lot. The next question will be if Coppy doubled down and screwed us on Kemp or if he really did get a middle of the order bat for HO.

BJ with Kimbrel was a bad move. Coppy won't admit it but it was.

Simmons I think was made with the knowledge they were getting Swanson. So i get it. I just never felt like we got enough for Simba.

It's early but it looks like the draft scouting has gone very well.

I'm still mad about missing out on Senzel b/c we won one too many meaningless games.

[striker42]

I agree we could have gotten a piece that privideo more value now for wood/peraza but at the time I find it unlikely it would have been someone who was as valuable as HO was within the industry

I don't know how valuable HO was within the industry at that point. I'm pretty sure the Dodgers had soured on him which is why they made him available so soon after signing him and without ever calling him up. They got a long, close look at him, realized he wasn't good, and were anxious to get rid of him while some team out there still valued him.

I also don't remember many other teams raving about HO. Usually when you manage to nab a really highly thought of player the writers get quotes from scouts around the game praising the pickup. You didn't hear a lot of praise for HO except for that coming from the Braves front office.

The Braves had beer goggles where HO was concerned. They just couldn't see the real player and way overpaid. The draft pick we got could help ease the blow but honestly, we could have had that draft pick plus something else really valuable for Wood/Peraza. HO was a massive mistake.

[thethe]

I don't know how valuable HO was within the industry at that point. I'm pretty sure the Dodgers had soured on him which is why they made him available so soon after signing him and without ever calling him up. They got a long, close look at him, realized he wasn't good, and were anxious to get rid of him while some team out there still valued him.

I also don't remember many other teams raving about HO. Usually when you manage to nab a really highly thought of player the writers get quotes from scouts around the game praising the pickup. You didn't hear a lot of praise for HO except for that coming from the Braves front office.

The Braves had beer goggles where HO was concerned. They just couldn't see the real player and way overpaid. The draft pick we got could help ease the blow but honestly, we could have had that draft pick plus something else really valuable for Wood/Peraza. HO was a massive mistake.

Baseball America listed him as a top prospect going into last season. There is just no way you can day this was just a braves mistake. Ultimately, they paid the biggest price but it wasn't braves vs the world on the evaluation.

[UNCBlue012]

I'll probably be frustrated with the Kimbrel trade for a while. We didn't get horrible value back, but we could have gotten a HAUL had we traded him alone or even added another good player to the deal -- we should have released BJ or just kept him for a fourth outfielder.

[striker42]

Baseball America listed him as a top prospect going into last season. There is just no way you can day this was just a braves mistake. Ultimately, they paid the biggest price but it wasn't braves vs the world on the evaluation.

I'm speculating but I would bet that Baseball America listed him as the top prospect based largely on what they were told by Braves scouts and front office people. They're no doubt plugged into the scouting departments of every team and if the Braves front office was over the moon for Olivera (they were), it's not surprising BA would give that a lot of weight.

Olivera didn't have only the Braves fooled. The Dodgers were drawn in by the old videos of him and that ultra controlled showcase as well. But they got a good look at him in the minors and quickly realized their mistake. I think the Braves jumped into that deal without checking out what Olivera actually looked like at game speed. If your remember, he was hurt when we traded for him so it's not like we could send scouts out when his name started coming up in trade talks.

We moved without sufficient information. It was a mistake. Hart and Coppy have admitted they blew it as far as Olivera was concerned and it's not just the character thing. They thought they were trading for a cornerstone piece and they got a AAA quality player.

[smootness]

I'm speculating but I would bet that Baseball America listed him as the top prospect based largely on what they were told by Braves scouts and front office people. They're no doubt plugged into the scouting departments of every team and if the Braves front office was over the moon for Olivera (they were), it's not surprising BA would give that a lot of weight.

Olivera didn't have only the Braves fooled. The Dodgers were drawn in by the old videos of him and that ultra controlled showcase as well. But they got a good look at him in the minors and quickly realized their mistake. I think the Braves jumped into that deal without checking out what Olivera actually looked like at game speed. If your remember, he was hurt when we traded for him so it's not like we could send scouts out when his name started coming up in trade talks.

We moved without sufficient information. It was a mistake. Hart and Coppy have admitted they blew it as far as Olivera was concerned and it's not just the character thing. They thought they were trading for a cornerstone piece and they got a AAA quality player.

I seriously doubt they didn't check. Remember that he hit well in his brief stint for the Dodgers. The Dodgers likely wanted to trade him because he got hurt again, and the Braves let their beliefs about him and his potential blind them to the injury issue. That was certainly a mistake, I don't think anyone is trying to argue that the Braves weren't wrong in their assessments of him. But it's possible the injuries just held him back more than the Braves thought they would.

[thethe]

I'm speculating but I would bet that Baseball America listed him as the top prospect based largely on what they were told by Braves scouts and front office people. They're no doubt plugged into the scouting departments of every team and if the Braves front office was over the moon for Olivera (they were), it's not surprising BA would give that a lot of weight.

Olivera didn't have only the Braves fooled. The Dodgers were drawn in by the old videos of him and that ultra controlled showcase as well. But they got a good look at him in the minors and quickly realized their mistake. I think the Braves jumped into that deal without checking out what Olivera actually looked like at game speed. If your remember, he was hurt when we traded for him so it's not like we could send scouts out when his name started coming up in trade talks.

We moved without sufficient information. It was a mistake. Hart and Coppy have admitted they blew it as far as Olivera was concerned and it's not just the character thing. They thought they were trading for a cornerstone piece and they got a AAA quality player.

It was absolutely a mistake but not just the braves which was the only point I tried to make. Also, with the dodgers in game speed he hit well in the minors.