BP's 2017 PECOTA projections

[thewupk]

That is very myopic statement. Adding Miller and Zack should have helped them. But both Miller and Zack were below career norms and the Dbags had some crucial injuries and under performance from other offensive players. To say everyone knew the dbags were going to be bad is completely false. I am not pardoning them for that trade. But that team should have contended for a wild card at least.

Actually a lot of statheads knew they werent going to be as good as they thought. Now nobody thought they would be as bad as they were but the Dbacks incorrectly thought their team was as good as it was in 20015 and tried to build off of that when in reality that 2015 team over performed. They started at the wrong base line so even if they did stay healthy and Miller didn't suck they would have been meh instead of bad.

[smootness]

You don't think it's possible that Albies is kept down to the trade deadline or even roster expansion? He's still very young.

It's possible that with the right platooning Jace/Rod/Adonis give us ok numbers out of 2B and 3B.

we also have a million BP arms so every position player is going to hit every game.

No way. If he's healthy, no reason to hold him down that long.

[bravesfanMatt]

Actually a lot of statheads knew they werent going to be as good as they thought. Now nobody thought they would be as bad as they were but the Dbacks incorrectly thought their team was as good as it was in 20015 and tried to build off of that when in reality that 2015 team over performed. They started at the wrong base line so even if they did stay healthy and Miller didn't suck they would have been meh instead of bad.

fair point, but I still contend that they should have been a wild card team

[thewupk]

fair point, but I still contend that they should have been a wild card team

They could have been. When you are in that range anything can happen. Most projections had them losing value at the MLB team with the Ender and Miller swap. Where I'm sure the Dbacks thought they were adding wins instead of losing them. It was that line of thinking that got Stewart the boot.

[thethe]

Actually a lot of statheads knew they werent going to be as good as they thought. Now nobody thought they would be as bad as they were but the Dbacks incorrectly thought their team was as good as it was in 20015 and tried to build off of that when in reality that 2015 team over performed. They started at the wrong base line so even if they did stay healthy and Miller didn't suck they would have been meh instead of bad.

There is no way to say this with certainty

[Southcack77]

They could have been. When you are in that range anything can happen. Most projections had them losing value at the MLB team with the Ender and Miller swap. Where I'm sure the Dbacks thought they were adding wins instead of losing them. It was that line of thinking that got Stewart the boot.

Trading your fourth outfielder for a top three rotation piece is supposed to help you, but that's not how it worked out.

[thewupk]

Trading your fourth outfielder for a top three rotation piece is supposed to help you, but that's not how it worked out.

I guess evaluating Ender as your 4th OF was their first mistake. The 2nd was assuming David Peralta would have a 368 BABIP again.

[thewupk]

There is no way to say this with certainty

We can make educated guesses.

[smootness]

I guess evaluating Ender as your 4th OF was their first mistake. The 2nd was assuming David Peralta would have a 368 BABIP again.

Seriously. If they valued Ender as their 4th OF, then that is not a defense of the trade. It's just more proof they had no clue what they were doing or how to improve their team.

[bravesfanMatt]

Also, you can't say, I take Ender's WAR and swap it with Miller's WAR and there you go. You have to look at replacement value as well. Who was replacing Ender and what was his WAR. If the Dbacks could replace Ender's 4 WAR with someone who puts up ~3 WAR, then how is that a loss. Could the Dbacks find another pitcher on the open market or internally that could have come close to Millers ~3 War that he posted for ATL? Simply swapping players value is not complete data set.

[thewupk]

Also, you can't say, I take Ender's WAR and swap it with Miller's WAR and there you go. You have to look at replacement value as well. Who was replacing Ender and what was his WAR. If the Dbacks could replace Ender's 4 WAR with someone who puts up ~3 WAR, then how is that a loss. Could the Dbacks find another pitcher on the open market or internally that could have come close to Millers ~3 War that he posted for ATL? Simply swapping players value is not complete data set.

You are correct. But it was obvious they did not have anyone to replace Ender's value in the outfield and was pretty much notated at the time of the deal.

[smootness]

Also, you can't say, I take Ender's WAR and swap it with Miller's WAR and there you go. You have to look at replacement value as well. Who was replacing Ender and what was his WAR. If the Dbacks could replace Ender's 4 WAR with someone who puts up ~3 WAR, then how is that a loss. Could the Dbacks find another pitcher on the open market or internally that could have come close to Millers ~3 War that he posted for ATL? Simply swapping players value is not complete data set.

Simply in terms of its impact on the major league team, you are correct. So who did the D-Backs have? Yasmany Tomas. I feel fairly confident they could find a pitcher who could provide at least 0 WAR pretty easily.

[bravesfanMatt]

I never said I know/knew squat about who they were replacing him with. Tomas is not helping my case on this... is he really that bad defensively. YIKES!!

boy, still glad we got Ender..

[bravesfanMatt]

Simply in terms of its impact on the major league team, you are correct. So who did the D-Backs have? Yasmany Tomas. I feel fairly confident they could find a pitcher who could provide at least 0 WAR pretty easily.

probably.

[nsacpi]

There is no way to say this with certainty

Not certainty, but a high degree of probability

[Southcack77]

You are correct. But it was obvious they did not have anyone to replace Ender's value in the outfield and was pretty much notated at the time of the deal.

I think they probably pictured Pollack, Peralta, Tomas out there.

[smootness]

I think they probably pictured Pollack, Peralta, Tomas out there.

Yeah...which would still mean that losing Ender is a massive hit.

[nsacpi]

Yeah...which would still mean that losing Ender is a massive hit.

They enderestimated him. That much is clear.

[Russ2dollas]

No way. If he's healthy, no reason to hold him down that long.

The reasons would be his age, relatively limited experience and manipulating service time. I'm not saying I do it. But I can see it.

Esp if the platoon works out well. If Albies is crushing the minors and showing some power again then maybe he just kicks down the door and you have to play him.

[thethe]

Albies will let the Braves know if he is ready. I could see him making it out of spring training. Money will not be an issue and the best contacts are always the extensions when the player is pretty arby. I see a scenario where both Swanson and Albies are locked up by spring training next year.