http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fa...dex.php?tm=ATL
They currently project the Braves to win 76 games. Several of their individual projections seem low though:
Freeman .282/.374/.481, 24 HRs, 3.5 WAR:
This projected slash line is almost exactly his career line of .288/.373/.484. I find it almost impossible to believe a fully healthy Freeman at the age of 27 won't produce a line better than his career averages. I would project him to regress a little from last year, and put up something along the lines of .300/.390/.500, which should inflate his WAR to 4+. I would also be surprised if he hits under 30 HRs in a smaller home park.
Teheran 174 IP, 3.73 ERA, 1.8 WAR:
In his 4 full seasons at the MLB level, Teheran's lowest IP total is 185. He is going into his age 26 season, so I see no reason to project his IP total to decline from the 190-200 range. He has consistently out-pitched his FIP by about 0.5 runs over the course of 4 full seasons, spanning 800+ IP, so I think it is safe to say he is one of the pitchers that do it regularly. I see no reason to project a regression of his ERA towards his FIP, and would project it to fall into his normal 3.0-3.5 range. Outside of a knee injury that scuttled half his season in 2015, I see no reason not to expect 3-4 WAR from Teheran in 2017.
Adonis 609 PAs, .265/.299/.408, 0.5 WAR:
If Adonis gets 600+ PAs in 2017, something went terribly wrong with Albies. At some point in 2017, Albies will be playing 2B, and SRod will get the bulk of the PAs at 3B. SRod is projected to produce 0.8 WAR in ~350 PAs, but I would project him to accumulate close to 500 PAs. Add in the improved production from Albies, and I would project the combo of 2B/3B to produce an additional ~1 WAR above what is currently projected.
The rest of the roster looks reasonable, so starting with 76 wins and adding 1 more win for Freeman, 2-3 more wins from Teheran, and 1 more win for the Albies/SRod combo, I would say a better projection for the Braves is 80.5 wins, which is where I would place the over/under if I were taking bets.
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