Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects

[CJ9]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=31160

2 Dansby Swanson
31 Ronald Acuna
35 Ozzie Albies
44 Sean Newcomb
64 Mike Soroka
67 Kolby Allard
96 Ian Anderson
100 Kevin Maitan

[smootness]

Interesting. They seem slower to move newer guys, like Anderson and Maitan, up, but then they have Acuna higher than anybody else. And they're low on Albies while highest on Newcomb still.

Tough to get a grasp on their criteria. I would think they value ceiling, but then Maitan is lower than expected in that regard and Dansby perhaps a tad higher than expected.

ETA: Hmmm. It's just one guy that does all of their prospect stuff. Not a big fan of that, especially since he is clear he hates prospect lists.

[rico43]

And another list with no Fried.

[thewupk]

And another list with no Fried.

No surprise. Has the talent but is high risk. Another season of good performance and he will be there.

[Enscheff]

I agree with the players in the Braves Top 10, if not necessarily the order. That is the lowest I've seen Albies ranked, but also the highest I've seen Acuna ranked. I can't really argue with any publication that ranks Albies anywhere from 10-50 depending on how much they think his lack of power will limit his production.

Just going by how many guys each team has in the Top 101, the Yanks have 9, while the ChiSox have 6 and are slightly more top-heavy than the Braves. These lists have shown the Braves are easily Top 3, and a solid argument can be made they are #1 at this instant in time (while Swanson and Albies are still eligible). I would still be inclined to rank the Yankees #1 considering they have more Top 100 talent, and they won't be graduating any of it to the MLB level any time soon. When Albies and Swanson lose eligibility in the next few months, the ChoSox will likely pass them too, and then they will add 2-3 Top 100 guys when they trade Q.

[50PoundHead]

No surprise. Has the talent but is high risk. Another season of good performance and he will be there.

My thought as well. He came on late in the season and that can sometimes be misleading. If he's found it and is healthy, he'll move fast.

[smootness]

I agree with the players in the Braves Top 10, if not necessarily the order. That is the lowest I've seen Albies ranked, but also the highest I've seen Acuna ranked. I can't really argue with any publication that ranks Albies anywhere from 10-50 depending on how much they think his lack of power will limit his production.

Just going by how many guys each team has in the Top 101, the Yanks have 9, while the ChiSox have 6 and are slightly more top-heavy than the Braves. These lists have shown the Braves are easily Top 3, and a solid argument can be made they are #1 at this instant in time (while Swanson and Albies are still eligible). I would still be inclined to rank the Yankees #1 considering they have more Top 100 talent, and they won't be graduating any of it to the MLB level any time soon. When Albies and Swanson lose eligibility in the next few months, the ChoSox will likely pass them too, and then they will add 2-3 Top 100 guys when they trade Q.

You're obviously free to have your own opinion on it, but the Braves have been a clear #1 by every service so far, and this BP ranking is done by one guy who hates prospect rankings.

I'll post BA's values of top 30 guys for the Yankees and White Sox later, but their values aren't close to the Braves. BA considers Atlanta more top-heavy as well.

[Enscheff]

You're obviously free to have your own opinion on it, but the Braves have been a clear #1 by every service so far, and this BP ranking is done by one guy who hates prospect rankings.

I'll post BA's values of top 30 guys for the Yankees and White Sox later, but their values aren't close to the Braves. BA considers Atlanta more top-heavy as well.

I fail to see how a guy "hating his job" would make him rank Braves prospects lower/higher than prospects from other teams. That "fact" has no bearing on the organizational rankings.

And I quite literally stated the Braves are likely #1 at this instant in time. Swanson will be the first top prospect to fall off these lists, and Albies won't be far behind. Once those top talents are off, the Braves list is far less impressive. The Yankees and ChiSox won't be graduating any of their top players any time soon.

[smootness]

I fail to see how a guy "hating his job" would make him rank Braves prospects lower/higher than prospects from other teams. That "fact" has no bearing on the organizational rankings.

And I quite literally stated the Braves are likely #1 at this instant in time. Swanson will be the first top prospect to fall off these lists, and Albies won't be far behind. Once those top talents are off, the Braves list is far less impressive. The Yankees and ChiSox won't be graduating any of their top players any time soon.

Sorry, I didn't mention him disliking prospect rankings so that I could prove he's wrong on the Braves. I'm fine with his ranking for the most part; 8 is on the low end of the number we've had in the top 100, but there have been multiple outlets that have given us that many.

I'm just saying that I'm not sure it's that trustworthy a source because of that fact. I didn't look and say, 'Oh, I don't like his Braves ranking, time to discredit him.' I just don't put a ton of stock into the ranking of one person, especially if it's somebody who doesn't seem to believe in what he's doing. Same with Law or Sickels...it's why I think BA's is at least more of a genuine consensus.

Also, you said a solid argument could be made they're #1, not that they're 'likely' #1...and you quite literally stated you would have the Yankees #1...and then backed it up with this one ranking.

And Chicago's system owes a ton to Moncada, who will be graduating off the list very soon as well. Giolito could easily be off the list by the end of the year, as could Lopez...and Fulmer. Collins will stay down all year, but he was a college draftee last year. The Braves' list overall is quite a bit younger than Chicago's.

As for the Yankees, they're quite a bit younger, so that's fine, although Frazier could easily be up this year, and Judge isn't far from graduation himself.

It's just stuff like this, that seems clearly biased against the Braves, that I don't get. If you think New York's or Chicago's talent is just better than Atlanta's, fine, but consensus is that it isn't, and it's certainly not true that they'll both be in better position soon. The idea that Chicago will definitely be in better position by the time Albies graduates simply because of Dansby and Albies graduating, even before a potential Quintana deal, is laughable. Moncada, Giolito, Lopez, and Fulmer all already have MLB experience and could very easily be off by that point.

[Preacher]

Atlanta has a ton of young guys that could make big jumps up these lists if they perform in 2017; guys like Fried, Allard, Acuna, Maitan, Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Guiterrez, Severino, Jackson, Pache, Cruz, Wilson, Touki..... ect....

Yes the top two of Swanson and Albies will be graduating soon - but most of the talent in this lauded system is still on the younger side. Some of them OBVIOUSLY won't pan out and but there's waves of talent coming up behind Albies and Swanson that are going to keep this system very strong. Not to mention Atlanta is going to be adding the 5th pick in the draft into their system while Chicago picks 11th and the Yanks pick 16th.

[Enscheff]

Atlanta has a ton of young guys that could make big jumps up these lists if they perform in 2017; guys like Fried, Allard, Acuna, Maitan, Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Guiterrez, Severino, Jackson, Pache, Cruz, Wilson, Touki..... ect....

Yes the top two of Swanson and Albies will be graduating soon - but most of the talent in this lauded system is still on the younger side. Some of them OBVIOUSLY won't pan out and but there's waves of talent coming up behind Albies and Swanson that are going to keep this system very strong. Not to mention Atlanta is going to be adding the 5th pick in the draft into their system while Chicago picks 11th and the Yanks pick 16th.

People say things like this as if no other organization has guys ready to make big jumps up these lists if they have good seasons. Typing them in a comma separated list doesn't make them any better, or make them any more likely to rise up these rankings than an equivalent list of prospects from another team.

And if prior drafts are any indication, I am not confident the Braves will add an impact talent with the #5 pick. They will most likely get a group of underwhelming "signable" guys (most likely pitchers) while superior talents are selected between their top 2 picks. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both the ChiSox and the Yankees draft a better player than the Braves do at #5. The Braves have shown they try to be a little too smart with their drafting and get a group of "signable" guys rather than going for BPA at the time of their pick.

That's how the Braves end up drafting the #96 prospect with the #3 pick, while many other higher ranked prospects were drafted well after the Braves took Anderson.

[Preacher]

People say things like this as if no other organization has guys ready to make big jumps up these lists if they have good seasons. Typing them in a comma separated list doesn't make them any better, or make them any more likely to rise up these rankings than an equivalent list of prospects from another team.

And if prior drafts are any indication, I am not confident the Braves will add an impact talent with the #5 pick. They will most likely get a group of underwhelming "signable" guys (most likely pitchers) while superior talents are selected between their top 2 picks. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both the ChiSox and the Yankees draft a better player than the Braves do at #5. The Braves have shown they try to be a little too smart with their drafting and get a group of "signable" guys rather than going for BPA at the time of their pick.

What are you talking about 'if prior drafts are any indication the Braves won't add impact talent?'

From the last two drafts;
Allard, Soroka, Anderson, Riley, and Wentz ALL made this top-200 list and were all drafted recently -- you could also add in Minter/Wiegel/Muller into that grouping. The Braves have added a ton of industry recognized impact talent in the draft under this regime.

But sure, the Braves haven't been drafting impact talent.

[bravos4evr]

People say things like this as if no other organization has guys ready to make big jumps up these lists if they have good seasons. Typing them in a comma separated list doesn't make them any better, or make them any more likely to rise up these rankings than an equivalent list of prospects from another team.

And if prior drafts are any indication, I am not confident the Braves will add an impact talent with the #5 pick. They will most likely get a group of underwhelming "signable" guys (most likely pitchers) while superior talents are selected between their top 2 picks. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both the ChiSox and the Yankees draft a better player than the Braves do at #5. The Braves have shown they try to be a little too smart with their drafting and get a group of "signable" guys rather than going for BPA at the time of their pick.

That's how the Braves end up drafting the #96 prospect with the #3 pick, while many other higher ranked prospects were drafted well after the Braves took Anderson.

Yeah, like those first 3 guys we drafted last year (Andersons, Wentz, Muller) who are all on or near Sickel's top 200 list.......

[Preacher]

People say things like this as if no other organization has guys ready to make big jumps up these lists if they have good seasons. Typing them in a comma separated list doesn't make them any better, or make them any more likely to rise up these rankings than an equivalent list of prospects from another team.
.

Yes, every team has prospects that can make a jump, the difference is the Braves have arguable the deepest system in the majors, they have a MUCH bigger pool of young players that can make that jump that most teams.

[thethe]

Yeah, like those first 3 guys we drafted last year (Andersons, Wentz, Muller) who are all on or near Sickel's top 200 list.......

Anderson specifically has been highly rated by many prospect publications. You can't make this stuff up.

[thewupk]

Anderson specifically has been highly rated by many prospect publications. You can't make this stuff up.

The point is the Braves went for quantity over possible quality last year. BP ranks the next 9 guys drafted after Anderson above him. 7 of the 9 following Anderson are rated above him in Baseball America's top 100.

Certainly having Lewis at #34 in BA's top 100 would look really strong for the Braves.

[thethe]

The point is the Braves went for quantity over possible quality last year. BP ranks the next 9 guys drafted after Anderson above him. 7 of the 9 following Anderson are rated above him in Baseball America's top 100.

Certainly having Lewis at #34 in BA's top 100 would look really strong for the Braves.

Acknowledging that Lewis is rated above him but other sites are not raking all of these guys over anderson.

A lot of this is subjective based on when players are seen. At this point you can't say, Ah hah! You see the braves went for lesser talent." It's just not clear yet.

[bravesfanMatt]

The point is the Braves went for quantity over possible quality last year. BP ranks the next 9 guys drafted after Anderson above him. 7 of the 9 following Anderson are rated above him in Baseball America's top 100.

Certainly having Lewis at #34 in BA's top 100 would look really strong for the Braves.

Guess you could argue eggs and something about baskets.. I am not though. I am still indifferent on the draft strategy last year. I don't think I have enough info to properly gauge my level of outrage/elations..

[thewupk]

Acknowledging that Lewis is rated above him but other sites are not raking all of these guys over anderson.

A lot of this is subjective based on when players are seen. At this point you can't say, Ah hah! You see the braves went for lesser talent." It's just not clear yet.

By other sites do you mean BP and Baseball America? Even MLB Pipeline has 8 of the 9 picks after Anderson rated above him. So I would say that the 3 biggest publications (BA, BP, and MLB Pipeline) all pretty much paint the same picture. Anderson is around the 10-12th rated prospect of the 2016 draft and we took him at #3.

[bravesfanMatt]

By other sites do you mean BP and Baseball America? Even MLB Pipeline has 8 of the 9 picks after Anderson rated above him. So I would say that the 3 biggest publications (BA, BP, and MLB Pipeline) all pretty much paint the same picture. Anderson is around the 10-12th rated prospect of the 2016 draft and we took him at #3.

BUTTT..... wouldn't most of these list be just carry over from pre-draft scouting? I mean, can you really say that Anderson was worse then Groome or Pint..