Then I guess you willfully look the other way. This is not that far removed from thinking Francoeur was a good offensive player because of how a hitter was characterized 20 years ago. When actual GM's talk about surplus value and how that effects trades I would think you would want to pay attention.
One point on the changing farm rankings is that the Braves have more on the list so more likely risers. I know every team has their prospects to watch. I think it is clear the Braves have more. I wouldn't be surprised if you do this at the end of the season the Braves still hit top 3. Even if Ozzie and Swanson are gone.
And all that study did was apply WAR values derived by someone else to prospect rankings developed by yet another source.
Do you realize this is how all analysis builds off prior analysis?
I think maybe you should stick to commenting on fluff pieces where your intellect is more suited.
Last edited by Enscheff; 02-13-2017 at 08:27 PM.
I DO think the Braves have a decent chance to stay in the #1/2 farm argument even after Swanson gets dropped from lists just due to the sheer volume of top 300 guys we have. It wouldn't take much for Touki, Acuna,Demerrite, Riley, Newcomb...etc to move into the top 50 discussion and suddenly our depth keeps us at or near the top. No other team has our farm depth or number of guys who could be B or higher prospects come 2018. This stuff matters.
"I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy"- Tom Waits
Its puzzling to me that there is so much commotion about where our farm system will rank in a year. If Swanson, Albies, Newcomb, Peterson, Minter, Sims and Ruiz graduate to the majors and turn into productive major leaguers, its not a big deal. To assess the "state of the system" it is better to look at both the farm and guys still in their pre-arb years. I would also add players like Freeman, Teheran and Ender who have been extented on team-friendly terms.
One could perform the same exercise by adding in the surplus value of all MLB players in each organization. Since I esssentislly calculated the total surplus value of the farm system, it would almost be an apples to apples addition.
I estimate teams like the Cubs and Red Sox would dominate that metric.
An interesting point will be valuing a guy like Swanson. His current prospect value is in the range of $75M, but projecting his production over the next 6 years compared to his salaries will probably make him much more valuable.
If he produces 18 WAR for a total salary of $25M, that represents $120M in surplus value right there.
Last edited by Enscheff; 02-13-2017 at 09:29 PM.
Yes, his surplus value as the #3 prospect is around $75m. His surplus value as a MLB player projected to produce 18 wins in 6 years while being paid $25m would be about $120m.
The question becomes: at what point do we stop valuing him as a prospect, and start to value him based on MLB projections?
Padres GM has almost done it in under a year. White Sox GM pretty much already did it in a few months. Same with the Brewers and Yankees. Red Sox have done it. Astros did it. Cubs and Dodgers did it recently as well.
NBA and NFL teams rebuild all the time.
It's not that hard to restock the farm when you gut the MLB team.
Last edited by Enscheff; 02-13-2017 at 10:34 PM.