I would probably put him at an estimated 8 WAR on the 4 years he had remaining. Clearly DHing full time is not for him and even as a catcher/DH he came back to be worth 2.6 WAR in 2016.Originally Posted by smootness
I would probably put him at an estimated 8 WAR on the 4 years he had remaining. Clearly DHing full time is not for him and even as a catcher/DH he came back to be worth 2.6 WAR in 2016.
I think that's a bit optimistic, considering that he's 30 and his offense itself has issues. His lack of value in 2015 was not entirely tied to being a DH defensively; he didn't hit well at all, either. I think the Braves were right to think he was peaking in value when they dealt him. I'd be surprised if he kept up what he did last year for another couple.
bravos4evr (02-14-2017)
You can argue that DHing is what caused him to be that poor offensively. Some players perform worse in that role. And while his lack of value in 2015 wasn't entirely tied to his defensive rating there was a 1.5 WAR difference between 2015 and 2016 because of it. So it's pretty significant.
That seems like a strange argument. Is there any evidence that this is the case for some people?
It's nothing scientific. I'm not sure how Gattis feels about it but over the years some players have expressed they don't like DHing because it takes them out of the game and they haven't hit as well in that role. I'm not saying it's a good argument either.
it's hard to do...but we need put aside the past two years and come up with a valuation for Gattis as of two off-season ago...
I did find one article about the subject. At the end of the article:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/adam-dunn-dh-white-sox/
Is it just me, or are there striking similarities between Burrell and Dunn? Obviously, just because one player can’t adjust to the DH doesn’t necessarily mean that another will, but it’s worth remembering that being a DH is difficult. David Ortiz spelled this out for us earlier this year, defending Jorge Posada’s struggles with the immortal words, “…. dude, DHing sucks.” The stats back him up:
“Players also lose effectiveness when being used as a designated hitter; the DH penalty is about half that of the PH penalty. This does vary significantly from player to player – some players hit as well as a DH as they do otherwise, while other perform as badly as they would as pinch hitters.” (The Book, by Tom Tango and Mitchel Lichtman)
Some players can adjust to being a DH, while others struggle with it. And right now, for whatever reason, Adam Dunn is struggling. Will he go the way of Pat Burrell, or will he make his adjustments and improve this season? Only time will tell, but if I were a White Sox fan, I’d start to get a little nervous.
soooo... no, there is no evidence
"I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy"- Tom Waits
Except what I posted above. turns it out is is a statistical fact that players hit worse while DHing. And Gattis has a 728 OPS while DHing and an 855 OPS as catcher.
I heard an interview with him about catching vs DHing. He didn't really know why he performed better when he played the field, but he speculated that he gets in the flow of the game better. The host then asked if catching specifically helps because he trains his eyes on the pitch better. He chuckled and said maybe. I am completely paraphrasing.. but that was the jist. It did sound like he liked catching over just DHing.
Where are the statistics to back that up? I get that he said 'the stats back him up,' but then he gave no stats. I'm not saying it's wrong, it just seems a little strange that it would be the case for a sizable number of players, and I would need to be convinced.
And while aggregate data would be interesting, in order for a comparison to be made, you're obviously picking players who have both played the field a majority of the time and then DH'd a majority of the time. And I'm guessing that for most of them, they didn't start DH'ing primarily until they became worse defenders...which is usually about the age most guys start declining offensively naturally.
Dunn, for example, who he uses there, didn't begin DH'ing much until 2011...when he was 31. So his offense certainly did drop once he began DH'ing...but it also dropped once he was past 30. So it's tough to draw significant conclusions from that.
So it would probably need to be some data gathered from players who both DH'd and played the field at similar ages. That's obviously a tough sample to draw, but it would certainly be interesting.
Last edited by smootness; 02-14-2017 at 04:08 PM.
Actually, there is. Educate yourself...
https://mglbaseball.com/2013/12/09/p...ies-revisited/
In fact, analysts talk about the DH penalty as a settled topic. Search around for "DH penalty" and you will find plenty of additional info.
Yes, that is some good stuff. I'll trust that there is a small 'DH penalty'. Probably doesn't explain all of Gattis' dip, and likely not even most of it (especially since he still DH'd a decent amount last year), but I'll accept that it explains some of it.
I get that you wouldn't expect players to start DHing until later in their career when their hitting ability is also in decline. For Dunn I don't think that really fits because he had been at DH level defensively for years. He just somehow fought moving to the position for that long (being a primary NL guy helps).
For the overall sample size the drop isn't big but it does exist. And obviously it effects some players more than others while some aren't effected at all. I find it odd that Gattis hits well as a catcher and stinks as a DH.
He did have a 992 OPS as a catcher and 702 OPS as a DH last year.
But that would be way more of a 'DH penalty' than the numbers show actually occurs. Maybe he just hates DH'ing so much that he can't concentrate or see a fastball when he's not catching, but it's hard to believe it would make that big of a difference.
Not sure how much of it applies directly to Gattis.
What bothers me is when someone like bravos4evr argues from a position of complete ignorance when it would take him 30 seconds to Google "DH penalty" and skim the first 2-3 results. That is being willingly ignorant. Allowing yourself to remain ignorant is fine, but if you are willingly ignorant don't try to argue with someone who isn't.
Regardless, though, he didn't switch to DH until the age you expect to start seeing decline across the board. Anyway, it's a moot point as it's been shown that DH'ing does have an impact.
And regarding Gattis' projection, let's conservatively say something like 6-8 WAR. I just don't know that you could project him for more than a 1.5-2 WAR average, again considering he was hitting his late 20s.
I agree that it's much large than the DH penalty that was observed for years across countless players. And I do as well think that large of a gap is pretty extreme. It's probably a combination of things which being a DH and not playing the field plays a part.
I do think there is evidence that as a catcher Gattis is 2 WAR player and I think that should of been the expectation when he was traded. Possibly less than the 8 overall if you want to account for a possible decline as he crosses 30.
I would say that's acceptable. I would say the age thing doesn't really apply to Gattis (like it would most catchers) due to his unique circumstances.
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