Originally Posted by
smootness
Why should we be all that concerned that Teheran will fall off?
I haven't read the ESPN article, but if they're trying to pinpoint the 'next Shelby Miller,' that's pretty dumb. Miller's issues were mental and mechanical. He suddenly could not repeat his mechanics, and they got so out of whack his hand was hitting the ground when he pitched. You can't predict the next guy who will suddenly struggle in that way. It's not surprise, as every time anyone has a crazy rare season out of nowhere (either good or bad), the media immediately ask who will do that rare thing the following year...but it's still dumb.
Teheran has basically been the same guy for 4 years now, outside of an uptick in walks in 2015. His K/9 is always between 7.5-8 or so, his BB/9 is pretty much right around 2, and he'll give up 7.5-8.5 H/9. He'll have a FIP around 3.5-3.7 and he'll outpitch that by a bit and have an ERA around 3 or a tick above.
There's a risk with most pitchers that they will become less effective all the sudden, but I don't know why we would be more concerned about that with Teheran than anyone else.