The Big Three--What is the Reasonable Upside

[nsacpi]

Teheran and Inciarte will be playing their age 26 seasons. Freeman his age 27 season.

It seems to me they all have some upside left. Their ages suggest this. A look at their best half seasons to date also suggests this.

Freeman put up an OPS of 1.067 in the second half of last year. David Ortiz was the only guy with an OPS of over 1.000 last year. Fredito has reached a point where an MVP type season is a reasonable possibility.

Ender had even more extreme splits last year with an OPS of .599 and .836 in the first and second halves. Some of that was BABIP driven. But it is also worth remembering that he suffered an injury early last season that required a stint on the DL. A reasonable upside for Ender this year is a 4-5 win season.

Teheran had his career best walk rate and best strikeout rate since 2013 last year. The upside I would look for from him would be incremental improvement in those two metrics together with a 200 plus inning workload. That would generate a 4-5 win season.

[Russ2dollas]

Freddie has over 1.000 upside. Problem is you don't predict upside and he's a 1B so he almost needs to have a plus 0.900 OPS to be plus.

Ender listed as having the second best deal in baseball per ESPN insider with all of his surplus value. I still don't see an impact hitter but he doesn't have to be in CF. I see a league avg hitter. If he hits north of 0.750 then he's a big time stud.

Tehran listed in an insider article on ESPN as a risk of going to Shelby Miller last year. The argument is based on how bad his fastball has been-not just velocity, contact rates etc-and how Turner field bailed him out. If SunTrust is a hitter's park then he could be bad. I'm not sure what we go offered for him last year but if we got an impact guy back we could be kicking ourselves. My guess is that the park won't be that hitter friendly. But Kemp and Markakis isn't going to help him as a fly ball pitcher.

[mqt]

Freddie has over 1.000 upside. Problem is you don't predict upside and he's a 1B so he almost needs to have a plus 0.900 OPS to be plus.

Ender listed as having the second best deal in baseball per ESPN insider with all of his surplus value. I still don't see an impact hitter but he doesn't have to be in CF. I see a league avg hitter. If he hits north of 0.750 then he's a big time stud.

Tehran listed in an insider article on ESPN as a risk of going to Shelby Miller last year. The argument is based on how bad his fastball has been-not just velocity, contact rates etc-and how Turner field bailed him out. If SunTrust is a hitter's park then he could be bad. I'm not sure what we go offered for him last year but if we got an impact guy back we could be kicking ourselves. My guess is that the park won't be that hitter friendly. But Kemp and Markakis isn't going to help him as a fly ball pitcher.

That's a bit of a stretch. Only five qualified 1B last year had an OPS over .900, so he wouldn't have to clear that hurdle to be a plus. Fortunately, while I don't think he's the second best hitting 1B in the league like he was last year, I do think he's capable of sticking around a .900 OPS.

Agreed on Ender and Julio. Ender is on a great deal with his recent extension and while I don't buy his second half being indicative of his future at the plate, he doesn't have to do that to be extremely valuable. Julio is a guy I think we should have really tried to sell high on. I'm hoping he doesn't completely fall off right away, but I'm not holding my breath.

[smootness]

Why should we be all that concerned that Teheran will fall off?

I haven't read the ESPN article, but if they're trying to pinpoint the 'next Shelby Miller,' that's pretty dumb. Miller's issues were mental and mechanical. He suddenly could not repeat his mechanics, and they got so out of whack his hand was hitting the ground when he pitched. You can't predict the next guy who will suddenly struggle in that way. It's not surprise, as every time anyone has a crazy rare season out of nowhere (either good or bad), the media immediately ask who will do that rare thing the following year...but it's still dumb.

Teheran has basically been the same guy for 4 years now, outside of an uptick in walks in 2015. His K/9 is always between 7.5-8 or so, his BB/9 is pretty much right around 2, and he'll give up 7.5-8.5 H/9. He'll have a FIP around 3.5-3.7 and he'll outpitch that by a bit and have an ERA around 3 or a tick above.

There's a risk with most pitchers that they will become less effective all the sudden, but I don't know why we would be more concerned about that with Teheran than anyone else.

[Russ2dollas]

Why should we be all that concerned that Teheran will fall off?

I haven't read the ESPN article, but if they're trying to pinpoint the 'next Shelby Miller,' that's pretty dumb. Miller's issues were mental and mechanical. He suddenly could not repeat his mechanics, and they got so out of whack his hand was hitting the ground when he pitched. You can't predict the next guy who will suddenly struggle in that way. It's not surprise, as every time anyone has a crazy rare season out of nowhere (either good or bad), the media immediately ask who will do that rare thing the following year...but it's still dumb.

Teheran has basically been the same guy for 4 years now, outside of an uptick in walks in 2015. His K/9 is always between 7.5-8 or so, his BB/9 is pretty much right around 2, and he'll give up 7.5-8.5 H/9. He'll have a FIP around 3.5-3.7 and he'll outpitch that by a bit and have an ERA around 3 or a tick above.

There's a risk with most pitchers that they will become less effective all the sudden, but I don't know why we would be more concerned about that with Teheran than anyone else.

bc fastball is losing velocity. doesn't have great fb control. they said his fb got hit a lot and hit hard. Basically said a lot of fly balls that were outs last year are going to be runs in the new park.

[sturg33]

Bad move not trading Teheran at the deadline

[Enscheff]

bc fastball is losing velocity. doesn't have great fb control. they said his fb got hit a lot and hit hard. Basically said a lot of fly balls that were outs last year are going to be runs in the new park.

WRT his fastball, here are the relevant data:

Velocity
2013 - 92.1
2014 - 91.3
2015 - 91.6
2016 - 91.0

Swing Strike %
2013 - 10.0%
2014 - 9.5%
2015 - 8.8%
2016 - 7.2%

So yes, Teheran is experiencing the typical decline in "stuff" all pitchers go through as he reaches his mid-20s. The Braves decided to keep him and waste some of his best seasons on a losing team rather than trading him and extracting that value for the future. It was the wrong choice (as shown by the White Sox), but it's the current reality for the Braves.

[Enscheff]

Teheran and Inciarte will be playing their age 26 seasons. Freeman his age 27 season.

It seems to me they all have some upside left. Their ages suggest this. A look at their best half seasons to date also suggests this.

Freeman put up an OPS of 1.067 in the second half of last year. David Ortiz was the only guy with an OPS of over 1.000 last year. Fredito has reached a point where an MVP type season is a reasonable possibility.

Ender had even more extreme splits last year with an OPS of .599 and .836 in the first and second halves. Some of that was BABIP driven. But it is also worth remembering that he suffered an injury early last season that required a stint on the DL. A reasonable upside for Ender this year is a 4-5 win season.

Teheran had his career best walk rate and best strikeout rate since 2013 last year. The upside I would look for from him would be incremental improvement in those two metrics together with a 200 plus inning workload. That would generate a 4-5 win season.

Teheran is what he is by now. Pitchers don't follow the same aging curve as position players. The only worry about him is the same injury concerns all pitchers have.

Freeman should be primed to be a Top 3 player at 1B this year. An OPS around 1.000 and 40 HRs are most certainly possible. There is no reason not to expect MVP consideration for Freeman. He is the best player on the team, and while he is a notch or two below Chipper, he is a good cornerstone for a team to build around.

Ender's bad first half can be attributed to injury, and his great 2nd half contributed to luck. I don't think anyone outside of Braves homers expect him to post anything appreciably better than a .750 OPS with fairly significant platoon splits. Coupled with his elite defense, that is a 3+ WAR player.

[bravesfanMatt]

JT's fly ball rate would concern me at Suntrust since it is a smaller park, but I don't think we will see a huge variance.. **I hope**

[50PoundHead]

Cy Young, MVP, Gold Glove/Silver Slugger.

[nsacpi]

you have to squint a bit harder to find room for improvement in Teheran...if it comes it will likely be due to further refinement of his off-speed pitches

[Enscheff]

Insecurity alert

Time to change your signature alert.

[zbhargrove]

Time to change your signature alert.

It's already been done. You had plenty of time to give me something else and you failed. Not my fault.

[Enscheff]

It's already been done. You had plenty of time to give me something else and you failed. Not my fault.

Um no, when the bet was spelled out I told what it was supposed to be: "Baseball Knowledge Index: 2.4"

I'm sure you'll renege on the bet though, not surprising in the least.

[zbhargrove]

Um no, when the bet was spelled out I told what it was supposed to be: "Baseball Knowledge Index: 2.4"

I'm sure you'll renege on the bet though, not surprising in the least.

You go back and find the exact post where you said that to me.

[Enscheff]

You go back and find the exact post where you said that to me.

OK dum dum:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/sh...t=6056&page=39

Page 39, post #778 in the offseason thread.

I swear, nothing but stupidity from you.

[Enscheff]

please stop your insanity. Any idiot can create a fake transcript. even you.

Why am I not surprised you balk at a bet? How about I have them mail you a sealed copy? I would consider it $7 well spent.

[bravesfanMatt]

Why am I not surprised you balk at a bet? How about I have them mail you a sealed copy? I would consider it $7 well spent.

if you want my friend. if you want to..

[Enscheff]

if you want my friend. if you want to..

Great. PM me your address. When you get it in the mail I'll tell you what your new signature will be.

[bravesfanMatt]

Great. PM me your address. When you get it in the mail I'll tell you what your new signature will be.

123 Idon'tgivea**** Lane

seriously man. live in your fantasy world all you want. I really don't want to visit you there.. This is a message board not a job interview. I will never be that serious enough to send nor accept someone's "transcript"... nor give out any of my personal info. If you are jonesing to bet, I am sure we can agree on something or you find someone to do your betting with. Lighten up.. No one here cares how big? your wiener is...