Early look at 2017-2018 FAs

[Enscheff]

MLBTR just posted their Top 10 FAs for next offseason:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...-rankings.html

Before we begin the discussion, let's not even bother with talking about Arrieta, Darvish or Cueto...mmmkay?

Lucroy is the obvious target. His upper range will be 5/90, but hopefully the Braves can get him for something like 4/80.

JD Martinez would have been a good target if not for the idiotic Kemp deal.

I can see the Braves taking a shot on Moustakas if the price is right. However, the price is almost never right with Boras clients.

A guy not on the list I could see the Braves going after is Lackey on a 1 year deal. He should be the #1 rotation stopgap option for the Braves next offseason (assuming he is still healthy).

[thethe]

Lucroy is certainly obvious.

Like the Lackey idea. If Dickey is underwhelming we are going to need at the very least 1 vet arm.

Teheran
Folty
Fried
Vet
Newcomb/Blair/Wisler/Weigel/Sims

[CJ9]

Agree with pretty much everything you said. Go big after Lucroy and then sign one veteran stopgap for the rotation.

I do love JD Martinez and wish that could work for us. Hopefully we'll at least get rid of Markakis before next season to open up a spot. The other consideration is that Martinez's defense is absolutely atrocious, so he doesn't fix our corner OF defense issue.

I'm not a huge Moustakas fan, but I'm also don't see Ruiz or Riley as the future answer at 3B either. Not sure what we'll end up doing.

[Hudson2]

Lucroy or bust for me. It's gonna really suck if the Rangers resign him.

[sturg33]

I really don't think we can get rid of Markakis without eating the contract

[Southcack77]

I'm not sure signing a 32 year old catcher who has been a 2 WAR player recently to a five year deal is a great use of resources for a team that still isn't particularly likely to be a World Series contender for his remaining prime.

Of the options presented, I would be more interested in Moustakas, who at least is three years younger and probably improves the Braves position at 3B even if he doesn't regain his breakout form.

I think the Braves should still be bargain shopping overall waiting for the kids to come along.

[TheBravos]

I'm not sure signing a 32 year old catcher who has been a 2 WAR player recently to a five year deal is a great use of resources for a team that still isn't particularly likely to be a World Series contender for his remaining prime.

Of the options presented, I would be more interested in Moustakas, who at least is three years younger and probably improves the Braves position at 3B even if he doesn't regain his breakout form.


I think the Braves should still be bargain shopping overall waiting for the kids to come along.

I agree. Why give a 32 year old big money in his declining years? I like him, but he is likely to only earn the money for half of the term of his contract.

[thewupk]

I really don't think we can get rid of Markakis without eating the contract

That train passed last offseason.

[Enscheff]

I agree. Why give a 32 year old big money in his declining years? I like him, but he is likely to only earn the money for half of the term of his contract.

IF this team overachieves this year (wins ~80 games), and IF pitchers like Fried and Newcomb and Folty show they are ready to anchor the rotation, and IF the Swanson/Albies duo shows they can produce a combined 6+ WAR between them, I can see the Braves making a push for the playoffs in 2018.

At that point, splurging to fix the biggest hole on the roster with the best available FA position player makes sense. Plug a hole in the rotation with a vet like Lackey, get a competent RHed 4th OFer, patch up 3B somehow, welcome back a healthy SRod, and you can see an 85+ win team in 2018 if you squint.

If the young pitching falls flat on its collective face like they did in 2016, I don't think signing a premium FA makes sense whatsoever.

[Horsehide Harry]

IF this team overachieves this year (wins ~80 games), and IF pitchers like Fried and Newcomb and Folty show they are ready to anchor the rotation, and IF the Swanson/Albies duo shows they can produce a combined 6+ WAR between them, I can see the Braves making a push for the playoffs in 2018.

At that point, splurging to fix the biggest hole on the roster with the best available FA position player makes sense. Plug a hole in the rotation with a vet like Lackey, get a competent RHed 4th OFer, patch up 3B somehow, welcome back a healthy SRod, and you can see an 85+ win team in 2018 if you squint.

If the young pitching falls flat on its collective face like they did in 2016, I don't think signing a premium FA makes sense whatsoever.

I just don't like giving that kind of money/years to a catcher at his age no matter the reason. It is extremely unlikly that it will be a good investment given his age and the historical track record of catchers. I think it a much wiser investment on the Braves part to spend $35M per year on a guy who can be a young cornerstone player for years who fits both offensively AND defensively (someone like Machado) than to spend $20M per year on a guy who almost certainly is a bad long term investment. The philosophical risk can be debated ( excellent young cornerstone player who cost a lot in terms of dollars and years vs aging good veteran who costs a relative amount of a lot for shorter years and lesser but still significant dollars).

Let's say you get Machado after 2018 at 10 years $350M (age years 26-36) at an average of 6 WAR per year (6 WAR accounting for minor injury, off years and diminishing performance) and you sign a catcher that produces an average of 2 WAR per year, every year over that 10 year span at an average cost of $15M per year (would be nice if the Braves could get that in house at low dollars but looks unlikely). That gives you 80 WAR over 10 years for $500M in salary.

OR, you sign Lucroy for his 32-37 after 2017 at 5 years $100M at an average WAR of 3 per year (again factoring in decline) then signing a 2 WAR per year catcher after Lucroy goes and also signing a 3B to provide the rest of the WAR value at an average annual rate of $7.5M per WAR. 15 + 10 (10 year catcher WAR with Lucroy) = 25. Lucroy cost for 5 years is $100M, other catcher 10 WAR x 7.5= $75M. Combined catching cost = $175M so

80-25= 55 WAR balance
55x$7.5M= $412.5M

$412.5M + $175M = $587.5M

All assumptions being correct signing Machado would bring back $87.5M in extra value and that doesn't even consider the possibility of deferred money or contract opt out clauses.

Obviously the long term commitment is more risky that the shorter term commitment to Lucroy but because of Lucroy's position, it's entirely possible he gets bad fast and never recovers, even without injury. With Machado you would have to worry that you don't get a guy who gets paid then quits working (the injury risk comes with any signing and is always there). But Machado's contract would be for his 26-36 YO season so, assuming no career threatening injury and you get 6 WAR out of him every year on average through his 31 YO season then an average of only 3 WAR per year after that, that's a shortfall of 15 projected WAR from the beginning of the contract meaning you lose 15 x 7.5 = $112.5M in projected value. SO the real risk in viewing the two deals would be 112.5-87.5= $25M.

And since the argument is that Lucroy might be worth the stretch contract after 2017 because the team would be close to contending, I would argue that Machado would be worth it even more after 2018 because the team should be even closer to contending and would have a bigger impact on the offense AND defense, as long as the 2 WAR from catcher you receive comes primarily from defense in the Machado scenario.

The question boils down to me that the Braves have several holes with both 3B AND C looking to be hard to fill internally (unless you believe in Ruiz or Riley...Maitan is way, WAY too far away to even be considered in the conversation). If the Braves sign Lucroy, it's almost certain they will also have to sign a 3B as well. I think it's a better long term use of the funds to pay what it takes to get Machado (within reason).

[ixiXSolidXixi]

I really doubt that the Braves throw 35 millions a year for anyone and less for 10 years. Example of that Mike Hampton.

[nsacpi]

Assuming Machado maintains his recent level of productivity I think he would get an AAV in the 40-45M range on a ten year deal. Higher AAV if it is shorter.

[NinersSBChamps]

Setting yourselves up for disappointment a bit early.

[Horsehide Harry]

I really doubt that the Braves throw 35 millions a year for anyone and less for 10 years. Example of that Mike Hampton.

Lots of different ways to go about this but:

1. Hampton was signed to the big contract by the Rockies, was traded to Florida with cash, then traded to Atlanta with cash.
2. He's a pitcher not a position player.
3. He was 29 when he signed the big contract with Colorado.
4. He didn't have an ideal pitcher's body to begin with.
5. Outside his 25, 26, 27 YO seasons he never had a WAR year over 2. In fact, he rarely got over 1.5

[Horsehide Harry]

Assuming Machado maintains his recent level of productivity I think he would get an AAV in the 40-45M range on a ten year deal. Higher AAV if it is shorter.

Possibly, but if so then likely out of the Braves range. But, even at those prices it's not a slam dunk that the Lucroy scenario would be better. Look at the best catcher of the past 20 years, Yadier Molina. His last 3+ WAR year was 3 years ago as a 30 year old.

[nsacpi]

Possibly, but if so then likely out of the Braves range. But, even at those prices it's not a slam dunk that the Lucroy scenario would be better. Look at the best catcher of the past 20 years, Yadier Molina. His last 3+ WAR year was 3 years ago as a 30 year old.

I would have been happy paying the going rate for McCann or Castro this past off-season. Less risk than Lucroy, who also might never even hit the free agent market.

[Horsehide Harry]

I would have been happy paying the going rate for McCann or Castro this past off-season. Less risk than Lucroy, who also might never even hit the free agent market.

Agree. I just think Lucroy is a huge chance based on a love affair that is three years old. By the time you actually get to consummate those high points that you remember are now sagging down past the navel.

If I'm going to take a chance, I would rather it be on a 26 YO potential HoF 3B vs a past his prime catcher getting paid for his last bad contract. Both come with risk, but the 26 yo, even at a higher cost, has more upside.

[zbhargrove]

Agree. I just think Lucroy is a huge chance based on a love affair that is three years old. By the time you actually get to consummate those high points that you remember are now sagging down past the navel.

If I'm going to take a chance, I would rather it be on a 26 YO potential HoF 3B vs a past his prime catcher getting paid for his last bad contract. Both come with risk, but the 26 yo, even at a higher cost, has more upside.

26 year old with 2 fake knees

[Horsehide Harry]

26 year old with 2 fake knees

Chipper? Also why I think he gets 30-35 and not 40-45 and maybe not 10 years.

[Knucksie]

Will be glad when some team, not named the Braves, signs Lucroy just to end this ridiculous board fetish once and for all.