That's my understanding as well. Even if true, there's always a chance we agreed not to trade him during the season, but I doubt he would be upset over a trade to someone more in contention later in the year. And we can always move him to 3B or let him be a bench bat/utility guy once Albies is up.Originally Posted by thewupk
Is there any indication that he can or would be willing to play third base?
No, it's just speculation by some fans. I doubt he'd move to third if replaced at second, more likely traded or stuck on the bench backing up second.
There isn't any indication, but I'm sure he'd take that over sitting the bench. I don't know if he has the arm for it, but if he does, then he'd be our best option at 3B.
If I had to bet money I'd say low 70s for wins.
I'm almost worried we'll be fools gold good and we will make a trade to go for the playoffs when we have no business there.
My goals for this year:
1. Health of long term guys-FF, Tehran, Folty, etc
2. One last go round of flips for impact resources from some of Garcia, Colon, Dickey, Garcia, Neck, Phillips
3. Get a big time deadline deal for a healthy Viz
4. Break in Swanson, Albies, Ruiz, Fried and maybe DPeterson if he does well post injury
5. Figure out if Folty is a long term answer as a starter
6. See if Wisler and Blair have any value
7. Decide if Newcombe is a starter or a RP and get him some decent major league innings. Maybe he pulls a Cabrera and focuses better on the MLB level.
I'd say dump Kemp but FF and Coppy both seem to think he's good. I'd love for him to mash this year and then dump him on the AL but I don't think they'd even consider it. In two years I'd love to see Dustin Peterson, Inciarte, Acuna. That timeline is aggressive but I think it would be a major upgrade.
I don't think 2 years is that aggressive on either Peterson or Acuna. I mean, it's a little aggressive on Acuna, but he's one good year this year away from being ready. Peterson should be ready by sometime late this year hopefully.
If Kemp could somehow replicate his Atlanta numbers from last season, I could easily see an AL contender in need of a DH trading for him.
On number 5, Folty.
What would it take for you guys to want to extend Folty? What would you offer? Would you do something like the Tehran deal if you thought he was a good 3/2? I think after this year hes into his 3 arb years. Maybe buy out 1-2 years of FA?
I don't think so. He's making 20 million. The NL leader in HRs got like 5 million.
And if it was. Do you think Coppy would do it? Kemp has a 900 OPS, sucking on D and we're around 500 as a team. Do you think he's going to ship Kemp off for a B prospect? I don't. I don't think anyone's going to give us more than a hard throwing BP arm for 45+ million dollars worth of Kemp.
From what I understand, Folty is going to be a Super 2 starting next season and will hit arb 4 times. His 4 arb years will be his age 26-29 seasons. He is almost too old to bother extending since his control already covers all of his 20s, so guaranteeing those seasons in exchange for buying his age 30+ FA season(s) probably isn't worth the risk.
However, "stuff" guys like Folty are always more valuable on the trade market than their results suggest they should be. So to buy out those 4 arb years, the Braves are looking at something like 3M + 6M + 9M +12M, for a total of around $30M. Carlos Martinez (a superior pitcher, but within reason of Folty's ceiling) just sold his age 30 and 31 FA seasons for $17M and $18M options, respectively.
A realistic Folty extension (if he posts a 3+ WAR season) is probably 4/30 with 1-3 option years at $15M+ each that extends the Braves control through his early 30s. If they end up signing that deal, they should be looking to trade him (as they should with all pitchers) when he has 1-2 years of control remaining.
I like that break down.
I was thinking the risk of him blowing out/sucking vs cost certainty. Could you get a couple of team options on the back end? Then maybe you keep him through 2019/2020 and then trade him. We know that all of our pitchers will not make it for a variety of reasons.
But by 2020 we have to think we have a couple of Allard, Fried, Newcombe, Soroka, Touki, Weigel ,etc. So you have Tehran and Folty as vets or potentially a farm restock.
In my post I wrote "with 1-3 option years at $15M+ each that extends the Braves control through his early 30s".
Teams rarely assume the risk of guaranteeing a player's arb years without buying 1+ FA season at a discount in exchange. However, in the case of Folty, assuming the risk inherent with guaranteeing his arb seasons might not be worth the added value of buying FA years cheaply.
Notice how Teheran's options cover only his age 20s FA years? Those are the valuable FA seasons, and those are the ones teams should be trying to buy in exchange for guaranteeing arb seasons.
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