Braves positional breakdown

[Enscheff]

FG just posted the last of their 2017 Positional Power Rankings:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-...-introduction/

Compiling only the information for the Braves shows the massive amount of roster improvement the organization needs in order to build a playoff contender.

C - #28, 1.1 WAR
1B - #5, 3.8 WAR
3B - #30, 0.4 WAR
2B - #26, 1.0 WAR
SS - #15, 2.2 WAR
LF - #29, -0.1 WAR (yes, negative)
RF - #29, 0.4 WAR
CF - #16, 2.5 WAR

So....yuck.

The Braves are currently good at one position, 1B. They are average at SS and CF, while SS is probably trending up towards the Top 10 range.

Every other position is complete and utter garbage. They need to be fixed if the Braves want to win. Period.

2B should be fixed once Albies gets settled in Atlanta, so at least one position has an in house solution.

How do they fix C, 3B, LF and RF?

Their bottom 3 ranking at the catcher position with zero help present in the minors is the main reason I considered Castro to be the #1 FA target this offseason. Pairing Castro with Flowers would have given the Braves ~2 WAR from the catcher position, which would have ranked them in the #17-#20 range. Also worth noting, framing isn't factored into these WAR values, and since both Castro and Flowers are excellent pitch framers, that duo would have easily placed the Braves' catcher position in the above average range. Signing Lucroy to a deal less than 4/80 or 5/90 this offseason makes a lot of sense.

3B is harder to fix immediately. Could the Braves take a chance on Moustakas if the bidding for him doesn't get crazy? Should they just give Ruiz a chance for a couple seasons while he is being paid the league minimum? Would the Braves be interested in buying Donaldson's decline years after the 2018 season, and potentially blocking Maitan? My gut tells me to patch the position together with guys like SRod and Ruiz until Maitan is ready.

LF and RF are a total disaster, and the scary part is the FO seems to think the positions are OK despite being among the absolute worst in the game. I think it's obvious the plan is to have Inciarte and Acuna patrolling 2 spots in the OF by 2019 (when the Kemp and Markakis contracts just so happen to expire), but what about improving the OF for 2017 and 2018? The clear answer is to find a RHed 4th OFer that is more than a typical bench player. This 4th OFer needs to be able to handle CF, will be the daily defensive replacement for Kemp, and will be in a semi-platoon in RF with Markakis which means he needs to carry a .750+ OPS vs LHed pitchers. I expect this 4th OFer to get over 400 PAs in both 2017 and 2018. Maybe Pagan is that guy. Maybe Szczur can be acquired from the Cubs. I wanted Jennings or Austin Jackson this offseason to fill that role. Hopefully the FO sees the corner OF spots as the giant vortexes of suck they truly are and acts accordingly.

[sturg33]

At least we have Ian Anderson

[thewupk]

Don't tell that to people. They aren't ready to take off their rose colored glasses yet.

[NinersSBChamps]

Don't tell that to people. They aren't ready to take off their rose colored glasses yet.

I really like this side of you.

[cajunrevenge]

Good thing games aren't played on paper.

[thewupk]

Good thing games aren't played on paper.

They aren't but it should reign in some expectations that some people have.

[smootness]

Those projections are obviously low, which I understand, though they're low across the league so rank within position should still be accurate.

I think we will have 4 legit answers by the end of the year, as you alluded to: 1B, CF, SS, 2B. Inciarte isn't league average, and as you said, Dansby won't be for long. I think Lucroy is a legitimate option at C, which would give you an answer for another 2-3 years. I think a Ruiz/Garcia platoon could end up roughly average, though it would likely be a bit below. The question about what to do with the OF for 2017 and 2018 is a good one, but I think it seems obvious what the answer is. I think our goal is to basically tread water this year, which I think we will do. I think we're hoping to flip at least 1-2 of the Garcia/Dickey/Colon group for something and rely on the young guys starting next year in the rotation. IF a couple of those guys can handle things well early (maybe Fried and Newcomb), then you could improve a bit going into 2018, even before you spend any money in FA, and I think we'll have a good bit to spend.

There won't be any great OF options on the FA market after this year, which is another reason why I think it's clear we'll just roll with Markakis and Kemp, but I wouldn't rule out a deal for a young-ish OF if we feel like we're ready to make a push.

[Enscheff]

For reference, here is a complete list of all OFers hitting the FA market after this season (a lot of duplicates since guys can play multiple positions):

Left Fielders

Michael Brantley (31) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Melky Cabrera (33)
Rajai Davis (37)
Jarrod Dyson (33)
Curtis Granderson (37)
Chris Heisey (33)
Matt Holliday (38)
Hyun Soo Kim (30)
Jon Jay (33)
J.D. Martinez (30)
Cameron Maybin (31)
Daniel Nava (35)
Colby Rasmus (31)
Michael Saunders (31) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Justin Upton (30) — Can opt out of the remaining four years, $88MM on his contract
Jayson Werth (39)
Chris B. Young (34)

Center Fielders

Lorenzo Cain (32)
Rajai Davis (37)
Jarrod Dyson (33)
Carlos Gomez (32)
Jon Jay (33)
Andrew McCutchen (31) — $14.75MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Colby Rasmus (31)
Ben Revere (30)
Melvin Upton Jr. (33)

Right Fielders

Jose Bautista (37) — $17MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Carlos Beltran (40)
Jay Bruce (31)
Melky Cabrera (33)
Jarrod Dyson (33)
Andre Ethier (36) — $17.5MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Carlos Gonzalez (32)
Curtis Granderson (37)
Franklin Gutierrez (35)
Chris Heisey (33)
J.D. Martinez (30)
Andrew McCutchen (31) — $14.75MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Daniel Nava (35)
Michael Saunders (31) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Seth Smith (35)
Justin Upton (30) — Can opt out of the remaining four years, $88MM on his contract
Jayson Werth (39)
Chris B. Young (34)

This is where the Kemp trade especially hurts. Guys like JD Martinez and Bautista would have made a lot of sense for the Braves in LF, but the position is being clogged by Kemp.

Rajai Davis makes a lot of sense (again) as that RHed 4th OFer. The A's got him this offseason on a 1 year deal for $6M, so he should be affordable.

Melvin Upton makes sense too, but I can't see him as a realistic scenario for the Braves considering his history in Atlanta.

Maybin bats RHed, but I don't think he offers enough of an offensive upgrade vs LHers, and he is pretty bad in CF.

[sturg33]

Kills me that we didn't lose one extra game in 2015 to snag Senzel

[Enscheff]

Kills me that we didn't lose one extra game in 2015 to snag Senzel

The mindset of this FO is very frustrating.

They promoted Swanson to start his service clock, and now the Braves can't leave him in AAA for a couple weeks to gain an extra year of control.

Having Swanson on the roster likely caused the Braves to be just good enough to miss out on Senzel, who posted a .329/.415/.567 line with 7 HRs over 250 PAs in A ball after being drafted. All while playing 3B...a position of dire need for the Braves.

So the Braves lost a year of control of their franchise SS to win a couple games that ultimately made them miss out on drafting a guy that will likely put up an .800 OPS and 15+ HRs at 3B starting in 2019. Outstanding!

But hey, Coppy is a genius, so it will all be OK.

[smootness]

The mindset of this FO is very frustrating.

They promoted Swanson to start his service clock, and now the Braves can't leave him in AAA for a couple weeks to gain an extra year of control.

Having Swanson on the roster likely caused the Braves to be just good enough to miss out on Senzel, who posted a .329/.415/.567 line with 7 HRs over 250 PAs in A ball after being drafted. All while playing 3B...a position of dire need for the Braves.

So the Braves lost a year of control of their franchise SS to win a couple games that ultimately made them miss out on drafting a guy that will likely put up an .800 OPS and 15+ HRs at 3B starting in 2019. Outstanding!

But hey, Coppy is a genius, so it will all be OK.

Uh.........

For someone who constantly destroys people for not bringing phenomenal arguments...that's a pretty phenomenally dumb post.

[sturg33]

The mindset of this FO is very frustrating.

They promoted Swanson to start his service clock, and now the Braves can't leave him in AAA for a couple weeks to gain an extra year of control.

Having Swanson on the roster likely caused the Braves to be just good enough to miss out on Senzel, who posted a .329/.415/.567 line with 7 HRs over 250 PAs in A ball after being drafted. All while playing 3B...a position of dire need for the Braves.

So the Braves lost a year of control of their franchise SS to win a couple games that ultimately made them miss out on drafting a guy that will likely put up an .800 OPS and 15+ HRs at 3B starting in 2019. Outstanding!

But hey, Coppy is a genius, so it will all be OK.

The Senzel draft was from the 2015 season results. Swanson wasn't on the squad then.

But who knows who it will cost us in this upcoming draft

[zbhargrove]

The mindset of this FO is very frustrating.

They promoted Swanson to start his service clock, and now the Braves can't leave him in AAA for a couple weeks to gain an extra year of control.

Having Swanson on the roster likely caused the Braves to be just good enough to miss out on Senzel, who posted a .329/.415/.567 line with 7 HRs over 250 PAs in A ball after being drafted. All while playing 3B...a position of dire need for the Braves.

So the Braves lost a year of control of their franchise SS to win a couple games that ultimately made them miss out on drafting a guy that will likely put up an .800 OPS and 15+ HRs at 3B starting in 2019. Outstanding!

But hey, Coppy is a genius, so it will all be OK.

Can't even get the correct years in line? Ouch...

[striker42]

Good thing games aren't played on paper.

This.

[thethe]

Good thing games aren't played on paper.

This analysis has great value but the degree of certainty in these outcomes is misplaced.

[thewupk]

This analysis has great value but the degree of certainty in these outcomes is misplaced.

It's called probability. Baseball is unique in that literally anything can happen regardless of actual talent level due to the small sample size that even one full season can be. But the odds of players like Kemp and Phillips, for example, playing like their younger selves aren't very high. We went through this in 2015 when you thought the Braves were so good the first couple of months before reality crashed down around you.

[msstate7]

Did you miss the very first sentence of the post you quoted?

I'll write the same post with "Senzel" replaced with whomever the Braves miss out on due to picking 5th to correct my mistake.

You were wrong like you are about kemp's WAR this year #mvp lol

[Horsehide Harry]

FG just posted the last of their 2017 Positional Power Rankings:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-...-introduction/

Compiling only the information for the Braves shows the massive amount of roster improvement the organization needs in order to build a playoff contender.

C - #28, 1.1 WAR
1B - #5, 3.8 WAR
3B - #30, 0.4 WAR
2B - #26, 1.0 WAR
SS - #15, 2.2 WAR
LF - #29, -0.1 WAR (yes, negative)
RF - #29, 0.4 WAR
CF - #16, 2.5 WAR

So....yuck.

The Braves are currently good at one position, 1B. They are average at SS and CF, while SS is probably trending up towards the Top 10 range.

Every other position is complete and utter garbage. They need to be fixed if the Braves want to win. Period.

2B should be fixed once Albies gets settled in Atlanta, so at least one position has an in house solution.

How do they fix C, 3B, LF and RF?

Their bottom 3 ranking at the catcher position with zero help present in the minors is the main reason I considered Castro to be the #1 FA target this offseason. Pairing Castro with Flowers would have given the Braves ~2 WAR from the catcher position, which would have ranked them in the #17-#20 range. Also worth noting, framing isn't factored into these WAR values, and since both Castro and Flowers are excellent pitch framers, that duo would have easily placed the Braves' catcher position in the above average range. Signing Lucroy to a deal less than 4/80 or 5/90 this offseason makes a lot of sense.

3B is harder to fix immediately. Could the Braves take a chance on Moustakas if the bidding for him doesn't get crazy? Should they just give Ruiz a chance for a couple seasons while he is being paid the league minimum? Would the Braves be interested in buying Donaldson's decline years after the 2018 season, and potentially blocking Maitan? My gut tells me to patch the position together with guys like SRod and Ruiz until Maitan is ready.

LF and RF are a total disaster, and the scary part is the FO seems to think the positions are OK despite being among the absolute worst in the game. I think it's obvious the plan is to have Inciarte and Acuna patrolling 2 spots in the OF by 2019 (when the Kemp and Markakis contracts just so happen to expire), but what about improving the OF for 2017 and 2018? The clear answer is to find a RHed 4th OFer that is more than a typical bench player. This 4th OFer needs to be able to handle CF, will be the daily defensive replacement for Kemp, and will be in a semi-platoon in RF with Markakis which means he needs to carry a .750+ OPS vs LHed pitchers. I expect this 4th OFer to get over 400 PAs in both 2017 and 2018. Maybe Pagan is that guy. Maybe Szczur can be acquired from the Cubs. I wanted Jennings or Austin Jackson this offseason to fill that role. Hopefully the FO sees the corner OF spots as the giant vortexes of suck they truly are and acts accordingly.

I have been saying for at least two years that 2017 can't and won't be the year. Even IF Folty, Wisler and Blair had ALL progressed as hoped, the list of everyday players would still project to be one of if not the worst in the game overall. 2016 should have absolutely been a continuing of an unofficial tank strategy with 2017 being the rounding off of the downward curve (instead of 2016) with the race to the summit beginning in 2018. Maybe that was never in the cards because of the needs of the new park, but from a "best rebuild" strategy it was absolutely the best way to go.

Looking back on 2016:
* Fredi should have never been fired. He was a sunk cost in a lost season. Best to let him manage out the season, keep tight control over his player usage, let him go after the season then hire your new manager using the fresh slate of the offseason without emotion or pressure.
* The Kemp trade should have NEVER been made. I understand the desire to throw dirt on the pile of ****e trade where Olivera was acquired. However, Kemp was strictly short term thinking in the middle of a long term strategy. And that short term thinking will, at minimum, bring limitations on moves that could and should be made with an eye on the long term.
* Swanson should have never been up. We've been through this 100 times but it is what it is. There may be marketing reasons, maybe even performance reasons that you can use to justify bringing him up but there aren't general management reasons.
* Veterans who weren't moved last year but could have been, should have been. If someone offered a used jock last year for Markakis (something better than that hopefully) he should have been gone. At a minimum it would have opened up spots for flippable one year adds like Pagan who could be had on a short inexpensive contract.
* No effort should have been made to avoid a 100 loss season. The difference between a 100 loss and a 99 loss season to fans is purely psychological and by the time 2016 was over their wasn't 5,000 fans a night paying attention. On the plus side, more losses sets you up for better draft position throughout the draft, gives you better position in rule 5 AND waiver claims and provides more workable bonus budgets for both domestic and international talent acquisition.

But that wasn't done and here we are. You've laid it out in WAR terms, I will lay it out in fan terms:

1B: really good, maybe even great
CF: pretty good with excellent defense
SS: young but promising
2B: OK with Phillips but you have to question how Phillips will take an inevitable Albies promotion
3B: Bad with only the hope of a Ruiz emerging keeping it from worse
LF: Horrible
RF: Slightly better than horrible
C: Bad bordering mediocre simple because catching across the league is generally not good

The path was (and still should be):

2016 - finish with the worst or second worst record in baseball. Keep payroll low. Add FA talent that can be flipped for young talent when things go right. Be smart in the draft and with the waiver wire and rule 5. Keep as much of the young talent as possible in the minors polishing their games.
2017 - again finish with the worst or second worst record in baseball. Use some payroll space to add a targeted FA or two who you think can be part of the long term. Use the rest to add more flippable assets. Begin plan of all moves being geared to more of a near term plan as opposed to longer term. Start working in some of the young talent.
2018 - hopefully finish better, maybe 10th worst record in baseball. Change focus a bit early in the draft to college guys who may be able to come quickly based on internal evaluation of needs within the system and availability in the draft (likely to need a LF in the next few years and no obvious options already in the minors and there is a reasonable college possibility, then take that guy instead of a HS pitcher who's going to take 5 years if ever). Use the rounds after the first couple for long term focus. Spend big on International FA again. Participate heavily in the bumper FA crop.
2019 - start challenging for pennants and keep doing so using the talent waves that you have created in your system to keep you good for a long time.

[Southcack77]

I have been saying for at least two years that 2017 can't and won't be the year. Even IF Folty, Wisler and Blair had ALL progressed as hoped, the list of everyday players would still project to be one of if not the worst in the game overall. 2016 should have absolutely been a continuing of an unofficial tank strategy with 2017 being the rounding off of the downward curve (instead of 2016) with the race to the summit beginning in 2018. Maybe that was never in the cards because of the needs of the new park, but from a "best rebuild" strategy it was absolutely the best way to go.

Looking back on 2016:
* Fredi should have never been fired. He was a sunk cost in a lost season. Best to let him manage out the season, keep tight control over his player usage, let him go after the season then hire your new manager using the fresh slate of the offseason without emotion or pressure.
* The Kemp trade should have NEVER been made. I understand the desire to throw dirt on the pile of ****e trade where Olivera was acquired. However, Kemp was strictly short term thinking in the middle of a long term strategy. And that short term thinking will, at minimum, bring limitations on moves that could and should be made with an eye on the long term.
* Swanson should have never been up. We've been through this 100 times but it is what it is. There may be marketing reasons, maybe even performance reasons that you can use to justify bringing him up but there aren't general management reasons.
* Veterans who weren't moved last year but could have been, should have been. If someone offered a used jock last year for Markakis (something better than that hopefully) he should have been gone. At a minimum it would have opened up spots for flippable one year adds like Pagan who could be had on a short inexpensive contract.
* No effort should have been made to avoid a 100 loss season. The difference between a 100 loss and a 99 loss season to fans is purely psychological and by the time 2016 was over their wasn't 5,000 fans a night paying attention. On the plus side, more losses sets you up for better draft position throughout the draft, gives you better position in rule 5 AND waiver claims and provides more workable bonus budgets for both domestic and international talent acquisition.

But that wasn't done and here we are. You've laid it out in WAR terms, I will lay it out in fan terms:

1B: really good, maybe even great
CF: pretty good with excellent defense
SS: young but promising
2B: OK with Phillips but you have to question how Phillips will take an inevitable Albies promotion
3B: Bad with only the hope of a Ruiz emerging keeping it from worse
LF: Horrible
RF: Slightly better than horrible
C: Bad bordering mediocre simple because catching across the league is generally not good

The path was (and still should be):

2016 - finish with the worst or second worst record in baseball. Keep payroll low. Add FA talent that can be flipped for young talent when things go right. Be smart in the draft and with the waiver wire and rule 5. Keep as much of the young talent as possible in the minors polishing their games.
2017 - again finish with the worst or second worst record in baseball. Use some payroll space to add a targeted FA or two who you think can be part of the long term. Use the rest to add more flippable assets. Begin plan of all moves being geared to more of a near term plan as opposed to longer term. Start working in some of the young talent.
2018 - hopefully finish better, maybe 10th worst record in baseball. Change focus a bit early in the draft to college guys who may be able to come quickly based on internal evaluation of needs within the system and availability in the draft (likely to need a LF in the next few years and no obvious options already in the minors and there is a reasonable college possibility, then take that guy instead of a HS pitcher who's going to take 5 years if ever). Use the rounds after the first couple for long term focus. Spend big on International FA again. Participate heavily in the bumper FA crop.
2019 - start challenging for pennants and keep doing so using the talent waves that you have created in your system to keep you good for a long time.

I mostly agree with you that the Braves never really stood much of a chance at contending in 2017.
I mostly agree that the Kemp trade was a bad idea.
Letting Snitker manage for his job at the end of last season and calling up Swanson was a bad idea.

Other than that, I don' think they've really done much to sacrifice the long term rebuild. They've made a lot of short contract acquisitions and traded away, in my view, nothing of consequence.

I don't know if they could have traded Markakis, but I don't really see the point of signing Angel Pagan in his place. He's old, in decline, would not help this team much, and won't be in the majors much longer.

[Enscheff]

They've just added the SP ranking now as well.

Braves are at #27 with 10.3 total projected WAR.

I am confident they are underrating Teheran by at least a full win, so adding that win improves the Braves to #20 on the list.

This season is going to be ugly. They appear to be on track for the worst case scenario...win 75 games and earn a draft slot just outside the elite players.