Braves positional breakdown

[Enscheff]

I think the over/under on some vegas lines is at 74 too.

I would gladly take the over on that one.

[Russ2dollas]

I don't see it. Braves actually won 68 games. Should of won 67 games with pythag record. fWAR and bWAR both had the Braves as 67 game winners as well.

Read the article. They used the stats and feel differently.

I think the team is dramatically better at SS and 2B. I think it will be hard not to be better at 3B and LF. 1B and C I expect to go down. CF and RF probably about the same. The rotation and pen should be much better. The depth should be much better. The manager has to be better. I think we can win 10 more games. Especially if the Marlins and Phils go into tank mode early.

[Enscheff]

There is no need to read any "analysis" done by ESPN...ever. They produce click bait drivel, and nothing more.

You claim the Braves can win 10 more games, which puts them at 78...pretty much the consensus around here. ESPN claims the Braves can win 79 in an article designed to get Braves fans to click the link.

[Enscheff]

In other words...most people are stupid...

9:24
CaptainPeanutbutter: The braves are projected to be terrible. Why does the media and some people keep commenting about them being possible contenders? Do people really think they are much better than their projections and why?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: They were a .500 team in the second half and they added a few recognizable veterans. But more importantly, the front office has been selling this Braves team as much improved, and a lot of people who do the coverage don’t bother to think any deeper than that

[thewupk]

Read the article. They used the stats and feel differently.

I think the team is dramatically better at SS and 2B. I think it will be hard not to be better at 3B and LF. 1B and C I expect to go down. CF and RF probably about the same. The rotation and pen should be much better. The depth should be much better. The manager has to be better. I think we can win 10 more games. Especially if the Marlins and Phils go into tank mode early.

I would but it's behind a paywall. I'm just curious how they came up with the Braves being unlucky and being a true 74 win team last year.

Regarding your positions. SS and 2B should be an upgrade. 2B really depends if Phillips rebounds and/or Albies coming up and if he hits the ground running. 3B will be the same as long as they keep Garcia there. LF will be better but not by much. Kemp is a name but the reality is he's not that good anymore. Overall the Braves will have the worst corner OF's in baseball.

Winning 10 more games is certainly doable. But I think that would require a few players to perform better then what they are projected to do or get lucky in 1 run games, etc. Now that happens all the time in this game and I wouldn't be shocked if it happens to this team but I'm not going to expect it either.

[Braves1976]

Statcast loves Inciarte and proves that the eyes don't lie about his defense:

As the 2017 season begins, so does the third season of Statcast™, the state-of-the-art technology that has tracked every play in every Major League ballpark since Opening Day 2015. And with two full seasons of data now collected, plus advances in applying that data, Statcast™ is better than ever. New metrics, such as Catch Probability and Hit Probability, will provide a deeper layer of analysis and further our understanding of the game.

With that in mind, here are five Statcast™ facts to know about the Braves heading into the 2017 season.
1. COVERING GROUND
In his first season with the Braves, Ender Inciarte showed off his defensive chops in center field, tying for the Major League lead with 10 catches that Statcast™ classified as 5-star plays. That's the most difficult classification on the 1-to-5 scale, representing catches made 25 percent of the time or less. The star system is based on Catch Probability, which factors in the distance the outfielder has to travel and how much time he has to do so.
Most 5-star catches made in 2016
1-T. Inciarte: 10
1-T. Adam Eaton: 10
3. Billy Hamilton: 9
4. Jake Marisnick: 8
5-T. Peter Bourjos: 7
5-T. Lorenzo Cain: 7
5-T. Kevin Pillar: 7
2. BASERUNNERS BEWARE
Inciarte's National League Gold Glove Award was based on more than just his range. He also led the Majors by recording 13 outfield assists -- out of his total of 14 -- that featured throws clocked at 90 mph or harder.
Most outfield assists of 90+ mph in 2016
1. Inciarte: 13
2-T. Eaton: 12
2-T. Eddie Rosario: 12
4-T. Leonys Martin: 10
4-T. Starling Marte: 10

[Enscheff]

FG just posted the last of their 2017 Positional Power Rankings:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-...-introduction/

Compiling only the information for the Braves shows the massive amount of roster improvement the organization needs in order to build a playoff contender.

C - #28, 1.1 WAR
1B - #5, 3.8 WAR
3B - #30, 0.4 WAR
2B - #26, 1.0 WAR
SS - #15, 2.2 WAR
LF - #29, -0.1 WAR (yes, negative)
RF - #29, 0.4 WAR
CF - #16, 2.5 WAR

Let's revisit this now that the Braves are about 2/3 of the way through the 2017 season...

C: #4 - Flowers has been amazing, and a lot of his offensive improvement appears to be legit. He is an elite pitch framer, and there is reason to believe he can be nearly this good next year.

1B: #2 - Freeman is good, we knew that. Adams played like Freeman for a month, so that certainly helped. I think we can count on the Braves being Top 5 here again next year as well.

3B: #27 - We knew this was going to be a problem, and it has been. It's time to address the glaring problem at 3B this offseason.

2B: #22 - We knew this would be pretty bad too, but the good news is Albies should get this position above average next year.

SS: #20 - A disappointment compared to fan expectations and projections. All we can do is hope Swanson gets his act together.

LF: #29 - We knew this was going to be a disaster. Kemp is owed a ton of money through 2019. Not good.

CF: #14 - Ender is pretty good, we knew that. The Braves should be at least average here in 2018 as well.

RF: #26 - We knew this was going to be bad as well, but Markakis is actually a bit better than expected. Expect the same in 2018.

SP: #28 - Apparently the Colon/Dickey/Garcia trio weren't saviors. The rebuild hinges on the Braves getting better at this position.

BP: #27 - A bad BP, as expected.

So not much has really improved with the MLB club except for Flowers. The Braves still have terrible production at 3B, LF, RF, SP and BP. The Braves are still hoping for improved production at SS and 2B.

SP should be fixed internally, though nobody has stepped up yet. The BP should be fixed with SP castoffs, but none have been cast off just yet. LF or RF is bound to be fixed by Acuna, it's just a matter of when. I don't see any cost effective way to fix the other OF corner until Kemp and Markakis are gone. 3B is still the obvious gaping hole it has been for years, so hopefully they address it this offseason.

Good thing games aren't played on paper.

Looks like the paper was pretty right.

[thewupk]

I would but it's behind a paywall. I'm just curious how they came up with the Braves being unlucky and being a true 74 win team last year.

Regarding your positions. SS and 2B should be an upgrade. 2B really depends if Phillips rebounds and/or Albies coming up and if he hits the ground running. 3B will be the same as long as they keep Garcia there. LF will be better but not by much. Kemp is a name but the reality is he's not that good anymore. Overall the Braves will have the worst corner OF's in baseball.

Winning 10 more games is certainly doable. But I think that would require a few players to perform better then what they are projected to do or get lucky in 1 run games, etc. Now that happens all the time in this game and I wouldn't be shocked if it happens to this team but I'm not going to expect it either.

hmmmm


Yeah outside of catching the Braves more or less are on point with what the spreadsheets said regarding the position players. Any gains from Freeman and Ender are offset by Swanson struggling.

The Braves win total will be somewhere in the mid 70's as predicted

[nsacpi]

Relative to pre-season projections the biggest surprises have been catcher (#4 actual versus #28 projected) and short (#20 versus #15 projected). The "surprise" at catcher is significantly larger, however.

The surprises at the other positions are smaller, but if you squint hard enough you'll notice they are mainly positive. Small positive surprises at first, second, third, center and right.

Taken all together the position players have out-performed their projection.

This has been largely offset by two starting pitchers (Teheran and Colon) underperforming relative to pre-season projections.

[Eyeman]

I'm surprised we rank that poorly at 2nd base. I believe in Albies, but I'm not sure we'll improve vs this year in his rookie year.

When you break it down this way, it's pretty easy to see that we need a few more good starting pitchers away, and since our "plan" is to homegrow instead of buy them, we don't need to worry much about Markakis and Kemp. We will not improve enough until a couple of our young pitchers past Folty are putting up 2+ WAR. I could see Newcomb doing that in 2018, but probably not, 2019 maybe. I don't see any of our other young starters ready to do much in 2018. I think Wright is the most likely to first put up much of a positive WAR.

We should look for trades or hope one of our 3rd basemen or outfielders suddenly develop, but really 2019 and beyond are where we really need to look. Markakis will be replaced by Acuna. We'll only owe Kemp one more year so we could eat that if we had to and could find someone to replace him. I think Santana would put up a better WAR than playing Kemp or Adams in LF. Actually Lane Adams might put up a better WAR than Matt in LF.

It's basically 2019 and beyond. It's fun to think about earlier, but unless we decide to trade the farm for a starter or two it's not going to happen. I'd rather wait, I like watching prospects.

[nsacpi]

I'm surprised we rank that poorly at 2nd base. I believe in Albies, but I'm not sure we'll improve vs this year in his rookie year.

When you break it down this way, it's pretty easy to see that we need a few more good starting pitchers away, and since our "plan" is to homegrow instead of buy them, we don't need to worry much about Markakis and Kemp. We will not improve enough until a couple of our young pitchers past Folty are putting up 2+ WAR. I could see Newcomb doing that in 2018, but probably not, 2019 maybe. I don't see any of our other young starters ready to do much in 2018. I think Wright is the most likely to first put up much of a positive WAR.

We should look for trades or hope one of our 3rd basemen or outfielders suddenly develop, but really 2019 and beyond are where we really need to look. Markakis will be replaced by Acuna. We'll only owe Kemp one more year so we could eat that if we had to and could find someone to replace him. I think Santana would put up a better WAR than playing Kemp or Adams in LF. Actually Lane Adams might put up a better WAR than Matt in LF.

It's basically 2019 and beyond. It's fun to think about earlier, but unless we decide to trade the farm for a starter or two it's not going to happen. I'd rather wait, I like watching prospects.

I sense some impatience on the part of the front office about the starting pitching. That's the way I view the Fulmer/Archer/Quintana/Sale rumors.

[thewupk]

I'm surprised we rank that poorly at 2nd base. I believe in Albies, but I'm not sure we'll improve vs this year in his rookie year.

When you break it down this way, it's pretty easy to see that we need a few more good starting pitchers away, and since our "plan" is to homegrow instead of buy them, we don't need to worry much about Markakis and Kemp. We will not improve enough until a couple of our young pitchers past Folty are putting up 2+ WAR. I could see Newcomb doing that in 2018, but probably not, 2019 maybe. I don't see any of our other young starters ready to do much in 2018. I think Wright is the most likely to first put up much of a positive WAR.

We should look for trades or hope one of our 3rd basemen or outfielders suddenly develop, but really 2019 and beyond are where we really need to look. Markakis will be replaced by Acuna. We'll only owe Kemp one more year so we could eat that if we had to and could find someone to replace him. I think Santana would put up a better WAR than playing Kemp or Adams in LF. Actually Lane Adams might put up a better WAR than Matt in LF.

It's basically 2019 and beyond. It's fun to think about earlier, but unless we decide to trade the farm for a starter or two it's not going to happen. I'd rather wait, I like watching prospects.

You can thank Peterson for bringing the position down