Braves positional breakdown

[thewupk]

There are a a few guys that could go anywhere in the top 5 and 3 of them are position prospects. I hope that's the route we go. I'm tired of taking all pitching.

It can be frustrating at times. The Braves do have a lot of top pitching prospects and have been picking pitchers in the draft recently. But it should be noted that even though that is the case it's not like the Braves are lacking in quality positional players in their farm system. The Braves are very very deep and sometimes that can be lost when you are just concentrating on the pitchers we have.

Let's look at a team like the Yankees who are regarded by most as having a top 5 farm system. They have 8 50 FV (future value) prospects on the Fangraphs listing. That's pretty good. The Braves have 12 50 FV prospects. Of those 8 the Yankees have 6 who are positional prospects and 2 pitchers. Of the 12 for the Braves they have 5 positional players and 7 pitchers.

Let's look at another top farm the White Sox. They have 7 50 FV guys with 2 hitters and 5 pitchers. Padres have 7 with 3 hitters and 4 pitchers. Dodgers have 6 with 3 of each. Pirates have 6 with 4 hitters and 2 pitchers.

So yeah, the Braves do have a lot of really good pitching prospects. But I think that has skewed some peoples perception of our farm system. The Braves are still up there with anybody else with quality position player prospects.

[zbhargrove]

Right, it was a mixup to say the Swanson promotion cost the team Senzel. I suppose that error makes me as stupid as the guy who thought the Braves were going to trade for Sale.

However, the rest of the sentiment still stands. The Swanson promotion cost them a year of control and a position, or positions, in the upcoming draft.

Well... don't know who you are talking about because I never said the Braves would trade for Sale... and actually never wanted them too. I said it was possible, because it was. I was more hopeful about the Quintana trade and that's the one I wanted... but now that you hear the likely price, I don't want to pay it. Thanks for making something up, though.

[smootness]

Right, it was a mixup to say the Swanson promotion cost the team Senzel. I suppose that error makes me as stupid as the guy who thought the Braves were going to trade for Sale.

However, the rest of the sentiment still stands. The Swanson promotion cost them a year of control and a position, or positions, in the upcoming draft.

Just own it dude. You constantly rip on people for being wrong on little things but try to get out of it when your criticism of the FO is based on a specific example that is totally wrong?

[Enscheff]

Did you miss the very first sentence of the post you quoted?

I'll write the same post with "Senzel" replaced with whomever the Braves miss out on due to picking 5th to correct my mistake.

[msstate7]

Did you miss the very first sentence of the post you quoted?

I'll write the same post with "Senzel" replaced with whomever the Braves miss out on due to picking 5th to correct my mistake.

You were wrong like you are about kemp's WAR this year #mvp lol

[Hudson2]

It can be frustrating at times. The Braves do have a lot of top pitching prospects and have been picking pitchers in the draft recently. But it should be noted that even though that is the case it's not like the Braves are lacking in quality positional players in their farm system. The Braves are very very deep and sometimes that can be lost when you are just concentrating on the pitchers we have.

Let's look at a team like the Yankees who are regarded by most as having a top 5 farm system. They have 8 50 FV (future value) prospects on the Fangraphs listing. That's pretty good. The Braves have 12 50 FV prospects. Of those 8 the Yankees have 6 who are positional prospects and 2 pitchers. Of the 12 for the Braves they have 5 positional players and 7 pitchers.

Let's look at another top farm the White Sox. They have 7 50 FV guys with 2 hitters and 5 pitchers. Padres have 7 with 3 hitters and 4 pitchers. Dodgers have 6 with 3 of each. Pirates have 6 with 4 hitters and 2 pitchers.

So yeah, the Braves do have a lot of really good pitching prospects. But I think that has skewed some peoples perception of our farm system. The Braves are still up there with anybody else with quality position player prospects.

You're right. We have so much pitching that position guys can get lost in the shuffle sometimes. Albies, Maitan, Acuna, and Riley are as good as anybody's. Adding a bat at 5 would equal out our hitting and pitching prospects.

[Tapate50]

Position players can be mixed and matched pretty effectively in FA most years.

[Horsehide Harry]

FG just posted the last of their 2017 Positional Power Rankings:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-...-introduction/

Compiling only the information for the Braves shows the massive amount of roster improvement the organization needs in order to build a playoff contender.

C - #28, 1.1 WAR
1B - #5, 3.8 WAR
3B - #30, 0.4 WAR
2B - #26, 1.0 WAR
SS - #15, 2.2 WAR
LF - #29, -0.1 WAR (yes, negative)
RF - #29, 0.4 WAR
CF - #16, 2.5 WAR

So....yuck.

The Braves are currently good at one position, 1B. They are average at SS and CF, while SS is probably trending up towards the Top 10 range.

Every other position is complete and utter garbage. They need to be fixed if the Braves want to win. Period.

2B should be fixed once Albies gets settled in Atlanta, so at least one position has an in house solution.

How do they fix C, 3B, LF and RF?

Their bottom 3 ranking at the catcher position with zero help present in the minors is the main reason I considered Castro to be the #1 FA target this offseason. Pairing Castro with Flowers would have given the Braves ~2 WAR from the catcher position, which would have ranked them in the #17-#20 range. Also worth noting, framing isn't factored into these WAR values, and since both Castro and Flowers are excellent pitch framers, that duo would have easily placed the Braves' catcher position in the above average range. Signing Lucroy to a deal less than 4/80 or 5/90 this offseason makes a lot of sense.

3B is harder to fix immediately. Could the Braves take a chance on Moustakas if the bidding for him doesn't get crazy? Should they just give Ruiz a chance for a couple seasons while he is being paid the league minimum? Would the Braves be interested in buying Donaldson's decline years after the 2018 season, and potentially blocking Maitan? My gut tells me to patch the position together with guys like SRod and Ruiz until Maitan is ready.

LF and RF are a total disaster, and the scary part is the FO seems to think the positions are OK despite being among the absolute worst in the game. I think it's obvious the plan is to have Inciarte and Acuna patrolling 2 spots in the OF by 2019 (when the Kemp and Markakis contracts just so happen to expire), but what about improving the OF for 2017 and 2018? The clear answer is to find a RHed 4th OFer that is more than a typical bench player. This 4th OFer needs to be able to handle CF, will be the daily defensive replacement for Kemp, and will be in a semi-platoon in RF with Markakis which means he needs to carry a .750+ OPS vs LHed pitchers. I expect this 4th OFer to get over 400 PAs in both 2017 and 2018. Maybe Pagan is that guy. Maybe Szczur can be acquired from the Cubs. I wanted Jennings or Austin Jackson this offseason to fill that role. Hopefully the FO sees the corner OF spots as the giant vortexes of suck they truly are and acts accordingly.

I have been saying for at least two years that 2017 can't and won't be the year. Even IF Folty, Wisler and Blair had ALL progressed as hoped, the list of everyday players would still project to be one of if not the worst in the game overall. 2016 should have absolutely been a continuing of an unofficial tank strategy with 2017 being the rounding off of the downward curve (instead of 2016) with the race to the summit beginning in 2018. Maybe that was never in the cards because of the needs of the new park, but from a "best rebuild" strategy it was absolutely the best way to go.

Looking back on 2016:
* Fredi should have never been fired. He was a sunk cost in a lost season. Best to let him manage out the season, keep tight control over his player usage, let him go after the season then hire your new manager using the fresh slate of the offseason without emotion or pressure.
* The Kemp trade should have NEVER been made. I understand the desire to throw dirt on the pile of ****e trade where Olivera was acquired. However, Kemp was strictly short term thinking in the middle of a long term strategy. And that short term thinking will, at minimum, bring limitations on moves that could and should be made with an eye on the long term.
* Swanson should have never been up. We've been through this 100 times but it is what it is. There may be marketing reasons, maybe even performance reasons that you can use to justify bringing him up but there aren't general management reasons.
* Veterans who weren't moved last year but could have been, should have been. If someone offered a used jock last year for Markakis (something better than that hopefully) he should have been gone. At a minimum it would have opened up spots for flippable one year adds like Pagan who could be had on a short inexpensive contract.
* No effort should have been made to avoid a 100 loss season. The difference between a 100 loss and a 99 loss season to fans is purely psychological and by the time 2016 was over their wasn't 5,000 fans a night paying attention. On the plus side, more losses sets you up for better draft position throughout the draft, gives you better position in rule 5 AND waiver claims and provides more workable bonus budgets for both domestic and international talent acquisition.

But that wasn't done and here we are. You've laid it out in WAR terms, I will lay it out in fan terms:

1B: really good, maybe even great
CF: pretty good with excellent defense
SS: young but promising
2B: OK with Phillips but you have to question how Phillips will take an inevitable Albies promotion
3B: Bad with only the hope of a Ruiz emerging keeping it from worse
LF: Horrible
RF: Slightly better than horrible
C: Bad bordering mediocre simple because catching across the league is generally not good

The path was (and still should be):

2016 - finish with the worst or second worst record in baseball. Keep payroll low. Add FA talent that can be flipped for young talent when things go right. Be smart in the draft and with the waiver wire and rule 5. Keep as much of the young talent as possible in the minors polishing their games.
2017 - again finish with the worst or second worst record in baseball. Use some payroll space to add a targeted FA or two who you think can be part of the long term. Use the rest to add more flippable assets. Begin plan of all moves being geared to more of a near term plan as opposed to longer term. Start working in some of the young talent.
2018 - hopefully finish better, maybe 10th worst record in baseball. Change focus a bit early in the draft to college guys who may be able to come quickly based on internal evaluation of needs within the system and availability in the draft (likely to need a LF in the next few years and no obvious options already in the minors and there is a reasonable college possibility, then take that guy instead of a HS pitcher who's going to take 5 years if ever). Use the rounds after the first couple for long term focus. Spend big on International FA again. Participate heavily in the bumper FA crop.
2019 - start challenging for pennants and keep doing so using the talent waves that you have created in your system to keep you good for a long time.

[Southcack77]

I have been saying for at least two years that 2017 can't and won't be the year. Even IF Folty, Wisler and Blair had ALL progressed as hoped, the list of everyday players would still project to be one of if not the worst in the game overall. 2016 should have absolutely been a continuing of an unofficial tank strategy with 2017 being the rounding off of the downward curve (instead of 2016) with the race to the summit beginning in 2018. Maybe that was never in the cards because of the needs of the new park, but from a "best rebuild" strategy it was absolutely the best way to go.

Looking back on 2016:
* Fredi should have never been fired. He was a sunk cost in a lost season. Best to let him manage out the season, keep tight control over his player usage, let him go after the season then hire your new manager using the fresh slate of the offseason without emotion or pressure.
* The Kemp trade should have NEVER been made. I understand the desire to throw dirt on the pile of ****e trade where Olivera was acquired. However, Kemp was strictly short term thinking in the middle of a long term strategy. And that short term thinking will, at minimum, bring limitations on moves that could and should be made with an eye on the long term.
* Swanson should have never been up. We've been through this 100 times but it is what it is. There may be marketing reasons, maybe even performance reasons that you can use to justify bringing him up but there aren't general management reasons.
* Veterans who weren't moved last year but could have been, should have been. If someone offered a used jock last year for Markakis (something better than that hopefully) he should have been gone. At a minimum it would have opened up spots for flippable one year adds like Pagan who could be had on a short inexpensive contract.
* No effort should have been made to avoid a 100 loss season. The difference between a 100 loss and a 99 loss season to fans is purely psychological and by the time 2016 was over their wasn't 5,000 fans a night paying attention. On the plus side, more losses sets you up for better draft position throughout the draft, gives you better position in rule 5 AND waiver claims and provides more workable bonus budgets for both domestic and international talent acquisition.

But that wasn't done and here we are. You've laid it out in WAR terms, I will lay it out in fan terms:

1B: really good, maybe even great
CF: pretty good with excellent defense
SS: young but promising
2B: OK with Phillips but you have to question how Phillips will take an inevitable Albies promotion
3B: Bad with only the hope of a Ruiz emerging keeping it from worse
LF: Horrible
RF: Slightly better than horrible
C: Bad bordering mediocre simple because catching across the league is generally not good

The path was (and still should be):

2016 - finish with the worst or second worst record in baseball. Keep payroll low. Add FA talent that can be flipped for young talent when things go right. Be smart in the draft and with the waiver wire and rule 5. Keep as much of the young talent as possible in the minors polishing their games.
2017 - again finish with the worst or second worst record in baseball. Use some payroll space to add a targeted FA or two who you think can be part of the long term. Use the rest to add more flippable assets. Begin plan of all moves being geared to more of a near term plan as opposed to longer term. Start working in some of the young talent.
2018 - hopefully finish better, maybe 10th worst record in baseball. Change focus a bit early in the draft to college guys who may be able to come quickly based on internal evaluation of needs within the system and availability in the draft (likely to need a LF in the next few years and no obvious options already in the minors and there is a reasonable college possibility, then take that guy instead of a HS pitcher who's going to take 5 years if ever). Use the rounds after the first couple for long term focus. Spend big on International FA again. Participate heavily in the bumper FA crop.
2019 - start challenging for pennants and keep doing so using the talent waves that you have created in your system to keep you good for a long time.

I mostly agree with you that the Braves never really stood much of a chance at contending in 2017.
I mostly agree that the Kemp trade was a bad idea.
Letting Snitker manage for his job at the end of last season and calling up Swanson was a bad idea.

Other than that, I don' think they've really done much to sacrifice the long term rebuild. They've made a lot of short contract acquisitions and traded away, in my view, nothing of consequence.

I don't know if they could have traded Markakis, but I don't really see the point of signing Angel Pagan in his place. He's old, in decline, would not help this team much, and won't be in the majors much longer.

[Enscheff]

They've just added the SP ranking now as well.

Braves are at #27 with 10.3 total projected WAR.

I am confident they are underrating Teheran by at least a full win, so adding that win improves the Braves to #20 on the list.

This season is going to be ugly. They appear to be on track for the worst case scenario...win 75 games and earn a draft slot just outside the elite players.

[nsacpi]

They've just added the SP ranking now as well.

Braves are at #27 with 10.3 total projected WAR.

I am confident they are underrating Teheran by at least a full win, so adding that win improves the Braves to #20 on the list.

This season is going to be ugly. They appear to be on track for the worst case scenario...win 75 games and earn a draft slot just outside the elite players.

I think the numbers for Teheran, Freeman and Ender are all at least a full win too low.

[thethe]

What is Folty projected at?

[nsacpi]

What is Folty projected at?

1.6

[thethe]

1.6

Fair projection but I think his range of outcomes is all overy the place.

[Julio3000]

Fair projection but I think his range of outcomes is all overy the place.

There may be more variance in that projection than any other, certainly any other pitcher.

[nsacpi]

Fair projection but I think his range of outcomes is all overy the place.

I would say there is at least as much uncertainty about Colon, Dickey and Garcia.

[sturg33]

Not worth starting a new thread... but a good read on why fangraphs values Jose Quintana so much more than Julio Teheran, despite near identical results

http://www.talkingchop.com/2017/3/27...aves-white-sox

[bravesfanMatt]

Fair projection but I think his range of outcomes is all overy the place.

There are a lot of jokes here... I will be back for this. Just hope some will be left for when I have more time.

[thethe]

There may be more variance in that projection than any other, certainly any other pitcher.

I could see him being a top 10 pitcher or somebody who borders on the periphery of missing out of the rotation in 2018. It's so unpredictable with him. I want to believe he can be that ace because his stuff and size is so enticing.

[thethe]

I would say there is at least as much uncertainty about Colon, Dickey and Garcia.

Really? I don't think those guys have the high end potential that folty has...maybe garcia.