No. They aren't a real thing.Originally Posted by Ventura's Stolen Bases
No. They aren't a real thing.
Hawk (07-02-2017), Managuarantano's Volunteers (07-04-2017)
Angel Hernandez filing a racial discrimination suit against the league, claiming Torre has a grudge against him and that the league has done a poor job of promoting minority umpires. That may be the case but outside of CB Bucknor, Hernandez is the last umpire deserving of any kind of promotion.
??
538 didn't have that.
**end politics**
Yeah, he did.
maybe at one point, but on election day it was like 60/40 and they wrote about a very real possibility of him winning the EC while losing the pop. vote, which is exactly what happened. 60/40 is hardly predicting a landslide win.
It was 70/30.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
He also said the election might come down to Alaska's electoral votes ... a similar aside to his 'Trump might win the EC and lose the popular vote' comment, which was decidedly not the storyline the site was pushing on election day.
They missed.
Garmel (07-04-2017)
Chopping With The Braves And Rolling With The Tide
A 30% chance is still pretty good. Giving someone a 30% chance still isn't predicting a landslide. It's very possible he only had a 30% chance to win. Based on known data he wasn't the favorite. They were wrong, sure, but to say they have no credibility of that giving someone a 30% chance is predicting a landslide is a big stretch.
Here's what I've said in this thread: He was wrong. By a substantial margin. And not just in the 'final prediction' I linked ... his data going back to October was consistently inaccurate.
If you want to quibble about what constitutes a landslide, have at it, but it's grasping at straws to distract from confronting the larger point head on.
I mean, do you want to ignore nuance and context and boil it down to "he was wrong"? Fine, you can do that. But he very well may have been right in saying there was only a 30% chance. You also said he did predict a landslide, which is what I initially stated he did not do. So I guess you find giving someone a 30% chance at something constitutes predicting a landslide. I didn't argue their predictions weren't wrong. That was your straw man.
I mean the guy is the living form of every umpire stereotype out there as far as wanting to be noticed.
Nuance and context? That's amusing.
I said that Silver was wrong. By a significant margin. I'm content stating that Silver's 'simulation' which put HRC at a 70% (actually 71.4%) chance of winning signifies a landslide. But I'm considering information about how the model performed in recent elections, as well as data sources it drew from, and ... well ... electoral reality.
Meanwhile, you are stuck employing an argument that weakly hinges on proving that 30% (actually, 28.6%) is not insignificant. Have fun with that.
Ventura's Stolen Bases
Silver was higher on Trump than the vast majority of other prognosticators. I too think it's a simplification to say "he was wrong." They were the most "Trump has a chance" site other than Fox News (obviously only including major sites/networks here).
They put out a "Trump can still win, it's just kinda hard" column like every week. It was kinda hard.
He was super wrong about the Republican primaries though, especially early on (like almost all of the US).
Hawk (07-04-2017)
It wasn't him, per se ... it was the data. I get that. However sometimes (oftentimes) politics transcend numbers and you've got to be able to adequately account for that particular beast. In that sense he failed, and, as you noted, it's not like he (and, certainly, others) didn't have a year to analyze Trump's particular brand of groundswell.
Twins sign bartolo colon lol
Get off my lawn!
He'll be the '16 version now
The All-Star Game is honoring Jose Fernandez tonight.
I must have a black heart or something because I think this is ridiculous. I don't understand why the Marlins organization and now the MLB is putting this guy on a pedestal considering he was drugged up while ending his life and the lives of others with his boat crash, thus, hurting many families and fans of his in general. ESPN is playing this up as well as they struggled to get through talking about him without choking up.
Where is the tribute to Yordano Ventura?
Last edited by WaitingFor2017; 07-11-2017 at 09:40 AM.
It was tough watching the derby last night with the sound on... the complete cock sucking of Aaron Judge was a little much to handle
(as an aside, it was a pretty entertaining derby)
cajunrevenge (07-11-2017)
A good act does not wash out the bad, nor a bad the good.
"Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.
It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
Agreed. I do take issue, however, with the other thing he mentioned: honoring Fernandez and not Ventura. Fernandez was a better player and bigger star. That doesn't make his death more important or sad.
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