Anyone want to take a stab as to why Kemp has a -.1 dWAR? Has there been any kind of play that was even close which wasn't made?
Anyone want to take a stab as to why Kemp has a -.1 dWAR? Has there been any kind of play that was even close which wasn't made?
Natural Immunity Croc
This is one of the reasons I wanted to make a case study out of Kemp and see just how much the eye test lines up with the computation.
There was not one play that happened in Kemps vicinity that should have resulted in any negative defensive value. Maybe this corrects itself over the course of the season but only two games in and the metric is already showing to be suspect in my opinion.
Natural Immunity Croc
Well, facing those two pitchers back to back is tough. Any batter (even a very good one), will have some bad at bats against those two.
No, you just clearly have no idea how the system works. There is no defensive data for anybody right now 2 games in. But we can calculate the positional adjustment. Fun fact: Every corner outfieler to have played 2 games has -.1 dWAR right now on fangraphs.
And yes if you are an average left fielder on the year and have either 0 +/- or 0 UZR then you are going to be around -7 to -8 dWAR depending on how many games you play. Because that stat compares you to every other player in baseball and not just those at your position. The same way an average centerfielder or shortstop is going to have a positive dWAR.
But none of this is new and something I'm sure you know anyways.
nsacpi (04-06-2017)
There was one ball into left center that Ender ran down, but I thought a good left fielder would have actually made the play
But other than that, I don't think he's not gotten to anything
Preacher (04-06-2017)
Depends how you want to look at it. He's average for his position but I would consider him below average when compared to the rest of baseball. When you look at the raw stat, be it DRS or UZR, then that number is comparing you to other plays at your position. When you look at dWAR then that stat generally includes the positional adjustment you need for WAR.
is the negative defensive WAR just because he plays LF and thats considered a less premium defensive position?
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Because the position is easier to play and has worse defenders playing it. If a LF saves 5 runs a year and moved to center I seriously doubt he would still be saving 5 runs a year. Should he be penalized for that in WAR? His actual defensive ability hasn't changed. Just the position and the players he's being compared to.
Last edited by thewupk; 04-06-2017 at 10:05 AM.