GDT 4/5 - Colon @ deGrom

[thewupk]

You're right... they are changing. 20 years from now the new advanced stats' guys will look at the geniuses today as cavemen, much like the advanced stats' guys look at traditionalists today.

Maybe of our understanding of today. But I doubt those who are into advanced stats would still be promoting UZR if something better comes along down the line. The problem with traditionalists is they hold onto their traditions despite overwhelming evidence against it.

[msstate7]

man i don't know what you did but Enscheff really doesn't like you lol

He just mad cause KEMvP gonna get 1.0 WAR. Enscheff knows he'll have a don Sutton quote as a signature come October

[thethe]

Maybe of our understanding of today. But I doubt those who are into advanced stats would still be promoting UZR if something better comes along down the line. The problem with traditionalists is they hold onto their traditions despite overwhelming evidence against it.

And the samermetricians continually move the goalposts so they are never wrong.

In 15 years all these stats will be obsolete.

[thewupk]

And the samermetricians continually move the goalposts so they are never wrong.

In 15 years all these stats will be obsolete.

RBI has been obsolete for 70 years. The great Branch Rickey knew this in his day. Sadly it took two generations for everyone else to catch up.

[Enscheff]

And the samermetricians continually move the goalposts so they are never wrong.

In 15 years all these stats will be obsolete.

It's called altering your opinion to match data, rather than altering data to match your opinion.

[thewupk]

"If the baseball world is to accept this new system of analyzing the game—and eventually it will—it must first give up preconceived ideas. I had to. The formula outrages certain standard that experienced baseball people have sworn by all their lives. Runs batted in? A misleading figure. Strikeouts? I always rated them highly as a determining force in pitching. I do now. But new facts convince me that I have overrated their importance in so far as game importance is concerned. Even batting average must be reexamined." - Branch Rickey 1954....simply the GOAT as far as baseball minds go

[thethe]

RBI has been obsolete for 70 years. The great Branch Rickey knew this in his day. Sadly it took two generations for everyone else to catch up.

Agreed but let's not pretend you are universally correct when in 15 years you'll be wrong.

[thethe]

"If the baseball world is to accept this new system of analyzing the game—and eventually it will—it must first give up preconceived ideas. I had to. The formula outrages certain standard that experienced baseball people have sworn by all their lives. Runs batted in? A misleading figure. Strikeouts? I always rated them highly as a determining force in pitching. I do now. But new facts convince me that I have overrated their importance in so far as game importance is concerned. Even batting average must be reexamined." - Branch Rickey 1954....simply the GOAT as far as baseball minds go

Yes...a misleading figure but not a worthless stat which is war you are saying. Every stat tells us something that can be useful in the right context.

[thewupk]

Agreed but let's not pretend you are universally correct when in 15 years you'll be wrong.

Have I ever said I am universally correct? I have changed my opinion on things throughout my time here and on scout the last 15+ years. The one thing I will say is that I am open to new ideas and learning new things. I am not stuck in the past on what clearly doesn't work.

[thewupk]

Yes...a misleading figure but not a worthless stat which is war you are saying. Every stat tells us something that can be useful in the right context.

What is this useful context? What can RBI possibly tell us how good a hitter is?

[thethe]

Have I ever said I am universally correct? I have changed my opinion on things throughout my time here and on scout the last 15+ years. The one thing I will say is that I am open to new ideas and learning new things. I am not stuck in the past on what clearly doesn't work.

Agreed but I don't forget the past as there is still truth there.

[thethe]

What is this useful context? What can RBI possibly tell us how good a hitter is?

Ive never once said it tells us how good a hitter is. It's a result metric that tells us what a player produced in the past.

[thewupk]

Ive never once said it tells us how good a hitter is. It's a result metric that tells us what a player produced in the past.

But what he is producing is based on the work of other players. It's about circumstance. What is useful about this information? It's not predictive. It doesn't help team building. What actual purpose does it have?

[thethe]

But what he is producing is based on the work of other players. It's about circumstance. What is useful about this information? It's not predictive. It doesn't help team building. What actual purpose does it have?

I've said this whole time. It's not predictive.

[thewupk]

I've said this whole time. It's not predictive.

Of course. So what is useful about RBI. What truth can we learn from it that actually tells us anything?

[Southcack77]

The problem with Kemp isn't really his defense. It's that some people think he's going to be the offensive force he was in LA. If that happens then he will be a valuable player and pretty much be like Adam Dunn in his prime. The problem is he hasn't been that guy in quite a few years. Another problem is the big deal made about homers without looking at anything else. People see the 35 homers and 100+ rbi. That's good. But they often fail to see the 304 OBP he had last year. That's really bad. Even with the 35 homers he was not a good hitter last year. Overall he did improve when he came to Atlanta so there is some hope.

He was .280/.330/.855 in Atlanta, which is ok. SD at least used to play as an extreme pitcher's park and maybe he didn't want to be there? I'm not a huge fan of the Kemp deal or of Kemp's value to contract, but I'm willing to consider the possibility he isn't going to be worthless in Atlanta.

And some folks have used his WAR to say that he isn't going to be any good. We'll see.

[Southcack77]

Kemp drove in 100 runs, but a better hitter would have driven in more given the same opportunities. A better hitter in Kemp's slot would have allowed the Braves to score more runs overall, and win more games, and be a better team.

That's why literally nobody with any idea how to value baseball players use RBIs as a measure of productivity. The moment you bring up RBI is the same moment you discredit yourself in any discussion dealing with baseball analysis.

If you want to sit around the campfire talking baseball with Don Sutton and other nitwits, stick to talking about RBI. If you want to talk baseball with intelligent people, educate yourself.

Well the problem is that Kemp was either better after he got to Atlanta, he was hotter, or he was luckier. Because his numbers were a good bit better than what he did San Diego. Like many Braves his second half was a lot better than a pretty bad first half.

You're starting to talk about a really good hitter to better the numbers Kemp put up after he got in Atlanta.

[thewupk]

He was .280/.330/.855 in Atlanta, which is ok. SD at least used to play as an extreme pitcher's park and maybe he didn't want to be there? I'm not a huge fan of the Kemp deal or of Kemp's value to contract, but I'm willing to consider the possibility he isn't going to be worthless in Atlanta.

And some folks have used his WAR to say that he isn't going to be any good. We'll see.

The major difference between what he did in SD and ATL was he walked more in ATL for whatever reason. Hopefully that continues and he's closer to his career mark in that area. If that happens we should have a good offensive player.

[Southcack77]

Don Sutton isn't an idiot but he's not right either if that's his opinion. I haven't listened to radio in ages so I have no idea what he says on the air. I would say that he is ignorant though if he's a promoter of RBI. He grew up and played through an era where it was widely believed that was what mattered among other things.

Baseball more than any other sport is numbers based. It's always been that way and always will be that way. What's changed is the actual numbers we use and they are still changing as we get a better understanding of it.

Yes. If you do not respect the saber movement then you aren't completely grasping the sport.

On the other hand, Sutton might know something about the interaction between pitcher and batter with runners on that you can't pick up out of a stat column.

[mfree80]

Just stopping by to see how many pages this pi$$ing match has reached!