It's not far off and nobody has been talking about it so I thought it would be a good idea to start one up. Jordan Kendall is off to a hot start. .429ba 4hr 10rbi in just 5 games and has more walks than strikeouts.
It's not far off and nobody has been talking about it so I thought it would be a good idea to start one up. Jordan Kendall is off to a hot start. .429ba 4hr 10rbi in just 5 games and has more walks than strikeouts.
Last edited by rico43; 06-12-2017 at 08:27 PM.
JJ Schwarz makes a lot of sense. Catcher is a real weakness throughout the organization.
"Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.
It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
We definitely need a high school pitcher who will never sniff the majors. Haven't had one of those drafted for almost a year now I think.
I think it is instructive to compare the 2015 and 2016 drafts. The first rule of course is to pick good players and that applies to all drafts. But there are elements of strategy and emphasis that differ from draft to draft. Even before the "returns" are fully in, it appears likely that the 2015 draft will turn out to be the better one. Here are some takeaways:
1) The first pick. We had the #3 in 2016 and the #14 in 2015. We went for highest upside in 2015. I understand the strategy behind what we did in 2016. But the outcomes so far reinforce my view that you really want to go with upside as your primary consideration with your first pick.
2) We had a second first round pick in 2015 but none in 2016. This was due to Santana hitting free agency. We did very well with that pick by selecting Soroka. This reinforces another one of my beliefs, which is that we should not be afraid to hold on to a player in his free agency season. Needless to say players have more motivation in these circumstances. But more importantly, the draft pick associated with losing a quality player is very valuable.
3) We had 2 second and 2 third round picks in both 2015 and 2016. Over the years, we have done best with high school position players in this part of the draft and worst with high school pitchers. In 2015, we drafted 2 high school position players, 1 college pitcher and 1 high school pitcher with those picks. In 2016, we drafted 2 high school pitchers, 1 college pitcher and 1 college position player. Without going into detail regarding the identity of individual players, I like the mix we took in 2015 with these picks much better.
4) Rounds 4-10 are the middle rounds. Players taken here are less likely to be stars, but a good draft will still yield a couple major league players from these rounds. Historically, we have done much better with college pitchers in this part of the draft. In 2015, we took 7 straight college pitchers in rounds 4 to 10. In 2016, we took a mix with more emphasis on college hitters. We did very well in 2015, with both Weigel and Withrow taken in this part of the draft. We need to go back to the 2015 template.
5) Beyond the 10th round it is a crap shoot. I have felt, however, that we have been a bit "lazy" over the years in not working hard to identify some high school players worth taking in the late rounds. In 2015, we did take some interesting high schoolers in this part of the draft in 2015 (Keller, Suarez, Hellinger). In 2016, we were very college heavy again.
As outlined above, there is a bit of a "template" that increases your chances of success in various portions of the draft. I thought we executed it extremely well in 2015. In 2016, not so much.
So my wish for 2017 is we go back to the 2015 game plan. Highest upside with the first pick. High school position players in rounds 2 & 3. College pitchers in the middle rounds. And a sprinkling of high school players in the late rounds.
Last edited by nsacpi; 04-11-2017 at 09:34 AM.
NYCBrave (04-13-2017)
Good recap, and I agree with what you wrote. Regardless of what the front office wants to do, I think their hand might be forced to go high upside and BPA at 5 this year since they won't be able to float someone down to their second round pick. Or at least it will be a lot harder to do.
Yeah, I'm still stunned when people bring him up. As a UF and Braves fan, I want nothing to do with him. He wasn't even in Baseball America's top 100 recently. He has zero chance to stick behind the plate. He throws changeups to second and isn't athletic behind the plate at all. His swing is a mess, the power has almost completely evaporated. I don't want him with any of our picks in the top five rounds.
Unless we trade for some Competetive Balance Round picks, I think we go a little more straight up with our pick in terms of BPA. We don't really have the pool to get as creative as some other teams and as such I'd expect at least a near-slot deal at 5. My preferences at this point would be:
1) Greene (never going to happen)
2) Lewis
3) Beck
4) Kendall
5) McKay
For reference, at the same school and at the same age, Swanson posted a .335/.423/.623 (1.046 OPS) with 15 HRs, 16/18 in SBs, and a BB:K ratio of nearly 1:1 (43:54). He will probably settle in as a sub-.800 OPS guy with double digit steals at the MLB level.
Kendall is currently slashing .309/.394/.604 (.998 OPS) with 10 HRs, 13/16 in SBs, and a pretty ugly BB:K ratio of 18:40. He appears to be lesser offensively than Swanson and has contact issues...not exactly the top of the lineup prospect you want in a "speedy" CFer taken #5 in the draft. Unless he is an Ender-level defender in CF, I don't want him at 5 either.
I'd like to take Royce Lewis or Austin Beck if that works out. That would put them on the same timeline as Maitan and the IFA class in GCL/Danville this year and hopefully Rome next year.
Just to add on... Anderson wasn't a low-upside pick.
The kid was a 6-3 HS righty with a plus fastball, good slider and an average changeup at 18. People may not have liked Ian>Kyle -- but IA has a lot of upside.
I think Kendall will be there at 5, I just don't want to take him. I think my preferred order as of now is:
Beck
Adell
Lewis
Faedo
If this guy is anyway related to Jason Kendall then I want him.
Steven Williams in the 2nd please!
Ivermectin Man
I just searched BA for this guy, as he is a local prospect that was getting some first round love last year. Not a word about him in the top 100 column and nothing since he was offered by Auburn. Does that mean his stock has fallen that far, or he's expected to enroll regardless of draft spot?
I can't imagine a big athletic catcher with a nice arm that can hit isn't in the top 100 of a WEAK catcher class falling that far...
Ivermectin Man