The Big 4

[nsacpi]

I think we have a Big 4 when it comes to pitching prospects. I don't mean to malign the others. Some may live up to their upside potential. But what sets the Big 4 apart in my mind is that they become mid-rotation or better major league pitchers if they simply develop to the 50th percentile of their potential.

The Big 4 to me are Soroka, Allard, Gohara and Anderson.

Reasonable major league arrival times are mid-season 2018 for Soroka and Allard, mid-season 2019 for Gohara and early 2020 for Anderson.

There is a certain poster around here who is fond of using the phrase "20-20" when discussing when the Braves rebuild might be really in its peak take-off phase. And the more I think about it the more likely it seems that he will be right.

The challenge for the front office is how to handle the years between now and then. Do they try to cobble together competitive teams without compromising what looks like our "real window" in the early 2020s. What do they do with guys like Freeman, Teheran and Ender who will be our best players during the next few years but expensive and possibly in decline by the 2020s.

What kind of pitchers do we acquire to fill out the staff until the Big 4 guys arrive? Do we keep going for aging one-year rentals? Do we mix in some of the homegrown guys who are closer to the majors but have less potential than the Big 4? Do we go for an expensive #1 or #2 on the trade or free agent market?

[TheBravos]

Gosh, you left ALOT of pitchers out. Easily 1-2 of the other 8 will click and that's on the low side. Probably at least four will be #4-5 starters also (just not reaching full potential.

[zbhargrove]

I would add Fried and Touki

[thethe]

In terms of pure upside I think Newcomb is right there with everyone. His possible outcomes are more volatile though. However, if he finds a way to reduce those walks to 2.5-3.5 per 9 then you are looking at our best arm.

[nsacpi]

Of the guys at AAA I would put Newcomb behind Wisler and Sims and ahead of Blair.

[thethe]

Of the guys at AAA I would put Newcomb behind Wisler and Sims and ahead of Blair.

Wow - Not a ringing endorsement. Fair enough. I think in terms of pure stuff Newcomb far exceeds all those guys.

[JohnAdcox]

I would add Fried and Touki

This.

[Russ2dollas]

I think we have a Big 4 when it comes to pitching prospects. I don't mean to malign the others. Some may live up to their upside potential. But what sets the Big 4 apart in my mind is that they become mid-rotation or better major league pitchers if they simply develop to the 50th percentile of their potential.

The Big 4 to me are Soroka, Allard, Gohara and Anderson.

Reasonable major league arrival times are mid-season 2018 for Soroka and Allard, mid-season 2019 for Gohara and early 2020 for Anderson.

There is a certain poster around here who is fond of using the phrase "20-20" when discussing when the Braves rebuild might be really in its peak take-off phase. And the more I think about it the more likely it seems that he will be right.

The challenge for the front office is how to handle the years between now and then. Do they try to cobble together competitive teams without compromising what looks like our "real window" in the early 2020s. What do they do with guys like Freeman, Teheran and Ender who will be our best players during the next few years but expensive and possibly in decline by the 2020s.

What kind of pitchers do we acquire to fill out the staff until the Big 4 guys arrive? Do we keep going for aging one-year rentals? Do we mix in some of the homegrown guys who are closer to the majors but have less potential than the Big 4? Do we go for an expensive #1 or #2 on the trade or free agent market?

Fried and Newcombe need to be there

We know they won't all hit. I hope some that don't hit can be big time relievers

We should have a ton of options.
Ff will be the guy at first
Ozzie will be cheap at 2b unless we get blown away in a trade
Dansby is going to be a good ss for cheap
Enders is cost controlled

So we've got c, 3b, corners and staff to fill. We should be able to fill out the staff mostly cheaply. Still have shots to cover of and 3b cheaply with td Peterson Acuna Riley etc

So imo we have a chance to invest some big money in the other areas. We could sign folks to high annual value deals in return for shorter commitments

[nsacpi]

Fried and Newcombe need to be there

We know they won't all hit. I hope some that don't hit can be big time relievers

We should have a ton of options.
Ff will be the guy at first
Ozzie will be cheap at 2b unless we get blown away in a trade
Dansby is going to be a good ss for cheap
Enders is cost controlled

So we've got c, 3b, corners and staff to fill. We should be able to fill out the staff mostly cheaply. Still have shots to cover of and 3b cheaply with td Peterson Acuna Riley etc

So imo we have a chance to invest some big money in the other areas. We could sign folks to high annual value deals in return for shorter commitments

Unless some of the guys in the upper minors like Fried and Newcomb pan out, we are going to have a spot or two to fill in the major league rotation until the cavalry arrives. I think we will make a trade for a major league pitcher who profiles roughly as a #2 either at the trade deadline or next off-season.

[Russ2dollas]

Unless some of the guys in the upper minors like Fried and Newcomb pan out, we are going to have a spot or two to fill in the major league rotation until the cavalry arrives. I think we will make a trade for a major league pitcher who profiles roughly as a #2 either at the trade deadline or next off-season.

I hope not.

I think those guys should be able to be a 5 no problem. And if you need to rent a vet for a year or two you could.

Folty and Tehran are there. So get 2-3 out of wisler, Blair, weigel, fried, allard, Newcombe, soroka and Simms.
Worst case sign another colon type for 1-2 years. It's not crazy to think we should get two out of wisler Blair Newcombe Simms next year. I'm talking 4/5 spots with some upside

Maybe Jackson

[thethe]

Maitan might move fast as well. Not impossible for him to be ready by 2021.

[nsacpi]

Maitan might move fast as well. Not impossible for him to be ready by 2021.

I think that's the most likely ETA for him. I think there is a decent chance he will stick at short.

[thethe]

I think that's the most likely ETA for him. I think there is a decent chance he will stick at short.

Dansby to third in that scenario?

[nsacpi]

Dansby to third in that scenario?

It would give us some options. But it is a long ways off at this point. Dansby will at short for the next four years.

[Carp]

Fried has to be on everyone's list. I think he'll be our top pitching prospect by year's end. Definitely number 2.

[CJ9]

My big four: Allard, Fried, Gohara and Anderson.

[Braves1976]

BTW, when I gave my big four and named Fried third of the four I wasn't listing in number of ranking. The top three is hard to rank for me but I had Fried ranked at two after Allard coming in and Soroka third with Weigel 4th. I would put the top three as easy to pick and then harder at 4 with multiple candidates that I could see ranking 4th including Gohara who I gave honorable mention.

PS: I edited that post to set the order as not to confuse anyone.

[Braves1976]

I also haven't lost as much faith in Blair as it seems folks around here have. And I would certainly have higher hopes for him than Wisler.

[nsacpi]

If I were to order my top 4 it would be: Soroka, Allard, Anderson, Gohara.

I've argued in another thread that I didn't see Anderson as being a high ceiling pick given where we drafted him. Of that I am convinced. But that doesn't mean I don't appreciate what he brings to the table. I also suspect that I don't give as much weight to ceiling as others around here. To me ceiling means an outcome at the first percentile and it should be weighed accordingly in rating prospects. To me the 50th percentile outcome for a prospect is more meaningful. Much more meaningful.

[Hawk]

'Big' Four

- Allard
- Soroka
- Fried
- Newcomb

'Little' Four

- Anderson
- Gohara
- Toussaint
- Sims