A different thread was hijacked, so I'll start a new thread.
Let's look at the "big trades" and the "headliners" in those trade to see how they're looking... I'm going to analyze the contract we gave up vs what we got back and make estimations on WAR. this is all subjective and would welcome other analysis. This is retrospective and estimated future value, and is just for fun! Also - I'm not factoring in contract costs - just production, so this is not perfect.
1. Heyward (1 year) for Miller (4 years)
- Heyward produced 6 WAR in his 1 year
- Miller produced 3.9 WAR in the first 2 years... and I'm estimating 1 WAR in the next 2 years. for a total of 5.9 WAR.
Verdict: Gave up 6 WAR in 1 year for 5.9 WAR in 4 years. This is a resounding loss... as the 6 WAR 1 season is much more valuable than 5.9 WAR spread out over 4 years
Upton (1) for Fried (6)
- Upton produced 3.5 WAR in his 1 year
- Fried has yet to pitch... though I predict he will produce at least 4 WAR over his 6 years. I also will consider that we got decent value out of other pieces in this trade
Verdict: Slight win for Braves, with potential to be win depending on Fried and Gohara.
Gattis (4) for Folty (6)
- Gattis has produced 2.8 WAR over last 2 years... And I predict he produces another 3 WAR under his contract... for a total of 5.8 WAR given up
- Folty has produced 1.2 WAR over last 2 years... and I predict he produces another 8 WAR over his contract... for a total of 9.2 WAR
Verdict - nice win for Braves
Kimbrel (4) for Wisler (6)
- Kimbrel has produced 2.7 WAR over last 2 years, and I predict he produces another 3 WAR over next two for a total of 5.7 WAR
- Wisler has produced 0.6 WAR over last 2 years, and I predict he produces 1.5 WAR over next 4 years for a tidal of 2.1 WAR
Verdict - bad loss for Braves
Simmons (5) for Newcomb (6)
- Simmons has produced 3.1 WAR over last year, and I predict he produces 9 WAR over next 4 years, for a total of 12.1 WAR
- Newcomb has not yet pitched, and I predict and he produces 4 WAR over his 6 seasons
Verdict - Bad loss for Braves
Alex Wood (3.5) & Jose Peraza (6) for Hector Olivera (6)
- Wood has produced 2.3 WAR since the trade, and I predict he produces 2 WAR over next 2 years, for a total of 4.3 WAR. Peraza has produced 0.7 War over last year, and I predict he produces 7.5 WAR over next 5 years... for a combined total of 8.3 WAR... for a combined trade total of 12.6 WAR
- Olivera produced -0.2 WAR since trade, and I predict he produces 0 additional WAR, for a total of -0.2 WAR
Verdict - Disaster for Braves
Miller (3) for Swanson (6), Inciarte (5), & Blair (6)
- Miller has produced 0.5 WAR since the trade, and I predict he produces 1 additionl War over next 2 years for a total of 1.5 WAR
- Swanson has produced 0.8 WAR since the trade, and I predict he produces 16 WAR over next 6 seasons, for a total of 16.8 WAR;
Inciarte has produced 3.6 WAR since the trade, and I predict he produces 14 WAR over next 4 seasons, for a total of 17.6 WAR;
Aaron Blair has produced -0.6 WAR since trade, and I predict he produces 4 WAR over next 5 seasons, for a total of 3.4 WAR;
for a grand total 37.8 WAR
Verdict - slam dunk for Braves
So let's add it all up... amongst the headliners of the big trades, the Braves traded:
The Braves traded 27.5 years of control and an estimated 47.2 WAR (1.7 WAR per season)
in exchange for
51 years of control and an estimated 62.8 WAR (1.2 WAR per season)
If we take out the Swanson trade, it's ugly:
- The braves traded 24.5 years and a estimated 45.7 WAR (1.9 WAR per season)
in exchange for 34 years of control and an estimated 35 WAR (0.7 WAR per season)
Or in other words, thanks God for Dave Stewart