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Thread: Looking at the "Big Trades"

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    The problem here is that none of us know what other options were on the table for a lot of these deals.
    That view leaves us with the reductio ad absurdum that any deal is above questioning. We don't know what other options Dave Stewart had on the table for a package of Inciarte, Swanson and Blair. So we shouldn't question his wisdom in making the trade he made.

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    I think the Braves did fine with their trades of the rentals. It's the guys who were under control that they miscalculated their value.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    This is an interesting issue. Suppose I own a vacation house on the beach and only plan on using it in August. Should I rent it for peanuts in July and say I got good value? I don't think so.
    Apples to dump trucks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    This is an interesting issue. Suppose I own a vacation house on the beach and only plan on using it in August. Should I rent it for peanuts in July and say I got good value? I don't think so.
    If you have a lease on a beach house that has one year left should you move to the beach house for a year to get "value" from it or sell it off the remaining year of the lease to reap value off a depleted asset.

    Sure you could live in the house and get value out of it, but your business isn't at the beach and after a year you won't have a house and your business would have suffered.

    So seems like the better plan is to put your remaining lease on the market and take the best deal. Not I'm sure that folks around here are experts in the market value of a beach house lease and would have in their own head have totally gotten more for the asset than the seller ended up getting. But that's why he have FSBO. People that think their things are more valuable than they actually are.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    That view leaves us with the reductio ad absurdum that any deal is above questioning. We don't know what other options Dave Stewart had on the table for a package of Inciarte, Swanson and Blair. So we shouldn't question his wisdom in making the trade he made.
    First, the one option you know you always have is to not make the deal. In the case of the Miller trade, we know the D-Backs would have been wise to simply not make that trade. However, the Braves weren't in that position with a lot of guys. With guys like Upton and Heyward it was trade them now or get very little when they leave via free agency. However, with guys like Kimbrel and Simmons, not trading them was a more valid option.

    With that being said, not knowing what other offers are on the table doesn't mean we always have to simply trust our front office. However, it's also why it's hard to judge a GM by one trade. We don't know the other offers or how the market viewed guys. So it's difficult to say we made the wrong choice. This is why you don't view trades in a vacuum. You have to look at what a GM does over the course of a lot of moves to see patterns that develop. If we're consistently ending up on the short end, we have a problem.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    You could argue it was Kimbrel/Melvin for Wisler, Riley, and Touki, sure. You can't consider Cruz and/or Pache to have come directly from the deal, but Paroubeck allowed us flexibility to add the money necessary to sign both of them.
    I wouldn't throw Cruz/Pache in there either...But we did take on Cahill's 6.5M to get AJ Minter. So you could argue that point as well.

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    I just wish we would have followed the genius white soxs. I mean they traded Sale for.. quick look at stats.. well they traded Sale for Moncada and hopefully a reliever one day.. But they cleaned up on Eaton.. look at that haul.. wait.. 2 walk artists and a 22 year old A baller.. Well don't worry.. when they trade Big Q, they will have the best system evar!!! Hope Coppy took some notes.

    /that was my short sample size over reaction for the day.. feel better now..

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    A different thread was hijacked, so I'll start a new thread.

    Let's look at the "big trades" and the "headliners" in those trade to see how they're looking... I'm going to analyze the contract we gave up vs what we got back and make estimations on WAR. this is all subjective and would welcome other analysis. This is retrospective and estimated future value, and is just for fun! Also - I'm not factoring in contract costs - just production, so this is not perfect.

    1. Heyward (1 year) for Miller (4 years)

    - Heyward produced 6 WAR in his 1 year

    - Miller produced 3.9 WAR in the first 2 years... and I'm estimating 1 WAR in the next 2 years. for a total of 5.9 WAR.

    Verdict: Gave up 6 WAR in 1 year for 5.9 WAR in 4 years. This is a resounding loss... as the 6 WAR 1 season is much more valuable than 5.9 WAR spread out over 4 years

    Upton (1) for Fried (6)

    - Upton produced 3.5 WAR in his 1 year

    - Fried has yet to pitch... though I predict he will produce at least 4 WAR over his 6 years. I also will consider that we got decent value out of other pieces in this trade

    Verdict: Slight win for Braves, with potential to be win depending on Fried and Gohara.

    Gattis (4) for Folty (6)

    - Gattis has produced 2.8 WAR over last 2 years... And I predict he produces another 3 WAR under his contract... for a total of 5.8 WAR given up

    - Folty has produced 1.2 WAR over last 2 years... and I predict he produces another 8 WAR over his contract... for a total of 9.2 WAR

    Verdict - nice win for Braves

    Kimbrel (4) for Wisler (6)

    - Kimbrel has produced 2.7 WAR over last 2 years, and I predict he produces another 3 WAR over next two for a total of 5.7 WAR

    - Wisler has produced 0.6 WAR over last 2 years, and I predict he produces 1.5 WAR over next 4 years for a tidal of 2.1 WAR

    Verdict - bad loss for Braves

    Simmons (5) for Newcomb (6)

    - Simmons has produced 3.1 WAR over last year, and I predict he produces 9 WAR over next 4 years, for a total of 12.1 WAR

    - Newcomb has not yet pitched, and I predict and he produces 4 WAR over his 6 seasons

    Verdict - Bad loss for Braves

    Alex Wood (3.5) & Jose Peraza (6) for Hector Olivera (6)

    - Wood has produced 2.3 WAR since the trade, and I predict he produces 2 WAR over next 2 years, for a total of 4.3 WAR. Peraza has produced 0.7 War over last year, and I predict he produces 7.5 WAR over next 5 years... for a combined total of 8.3 WAR... for a combined trade total of 12.6 WAR

    - Olivera produced -0.2 WAR since trade, and I predict he produces 0 additional WAR, for a total of -0.2 WAR

    Verdict - Disaster for Braves

    Miller (3) for Swanson (6), Inciarte (5), & Blair (6)

    - Miller has produced 0.5 WAR since the trade, and I predict he produces 1 additionl War over next 2 years for a total of 1.5 WAR

    - Swanson has produced 0.8 WAR since the trade, and I predict he produces 16 WAR over next 6 seasons, for a total of 16.8 WAR;
    Inciarte has produced 3.6 WAR since the trade, and I predict he produces 14 WAR over next 4 seasons, for a total of 17.6 WAR;
    Aaron Blair has produced -0.6 WAR since trade, and I predict he produces 4 WAR over next 5 seasons, for a total of 3.4 WAR;
    for a grand total 37.8 WAR

    Verdict - slam dunk for Braves










    So let's add it all up... amongst the headliners of the big trades, the Braves traded:

    The Braves traded 27.5 years of control and an estimated 47.2 WAR (1.7 WAR per season)

    in exchange for

    51 years of control and an estimated 62.8 WAR (1.2 WAR per season)

    If we take out the Swanson trade, it's ugly:
    - The braves traded 24.5 years and a estimated 45.7 WAR (1.9 WAR per season)

    in exchange for 34 years of control and an estimated 35 WAR (0.7 WAR per season)


    Or in other words, thanks God for Dave Stewart
    I just can't agree.

    We won the Heyward deal. We were not going to win. We traded one year of a mostly defense RF for multiple years of solid starting pitcher who pitched like a legit 2 for us. We also got Jenkins who did not do well for us but we turned into Luke Jackson who will be a good pen arm IMO. Clearly we didn't know the DBacks were going to be idiots at the time but I think we did very well in the deal as it is. I do not care for adding WAR in this way, no context.

    Upton deal is a huge win for the braves. 1 year of JUp for full service time control of Fried, Mallex and Peterson. I know most haven't played yet. But I think Fried is going to be TOR. Mallex was a good 4th OF. Peterson I think is going to be a 2 WAR player at a corner.

    The others I agree w/ the verdicts.

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    That's the thing...they are prospects. They don't "Make it" all the time. Pass the crystal ball to the Braves FO if you got one!
    Ivermectin Man

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    That's the thing...they are prospects. They don't "Make it" all the time. Pass the crystal ball to the Braves FO if you got one!
    Unless they are 100% success rate some won't be happy. Braves are in tremendous shape moving forward. All brave fans should be ecstatic where the front office has brought this team in 2 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Unless they are 100% success rate some won't be happy. Braves are in tremendous shape moving forward. All brave fans should be ecstatic where the front office has brought this team in 2 years.
    And you can't be objective about anything. Attaching Melvin with Kimbrel was a mistake. A lot of people saw that at the time and it only got worse when the market for elite relievers exploded the following year. Selling Simmons off for what we did was a mistake as well. Those were bad trades. Luckily there has been enough good in other other trades and through the draft to counter that.

    Nobody is going to be right 100% of the time. The one area where I would say the FO has had issues with is valuing the players they traded that still had years of control. Even Gattis was short changed as a player that couldn't stick at catcher and he's shown to be a 2 WAR player there when he's not pretending to be a left fielder. T

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    I think only two of the trades were truly bad: Kimbrel and Olivera. We have seen the type of talent Kimbrel should have gotten in return, and we all know how bad the Olivera deal was (and then compounded with the subsequent bad Kemp acquisition).

    Only one of the trades was truly good, which is obviously the Swanson/Inciarte deal. That one trade made up for the lost value the Braves suffered in the Kimbrel and Olivera deals. So yes, thank God for Dave Stewart.

    All the rest of the deals are nothing special. Any competent sports GM would have done about the same if given identical scenarios.

    So 2 bad trades, 1 amazing trade (largely the result of luck) that largely covered up the 2 bad ones, and a bunch of average trades. Precisely why I rate Coppy as an average or slightly below average GM.

    His inability to identify and fix the most obvious holes on the MLB roster with cost effective solutions is what makes him below average in my evaluations. 3B has been a black hole since Chipper retired, yet the Braves insist on going with guys like Garcia instead of signing below market guys like Freese. Corner OF has produced poorly, especially LF, and the solution was to acquire Markakis and Kemp during rebuilding years. There isn't a single viable starting catcher in the entire system, and they couldn't beat the Twins' $25M offer for Castro. The bench this year is absolutely putrid, and there were options for a legit 4th OFer all offseason, yet the Braves have Bonifacio on the roster.

    The examples go on and on...
    Last edited by Enscheff; 04-19-2017 at 11:18 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I think only two of the trades were truly bad: Kimbrel and Olivera. We have seen the type of talent Kimbrel should have gotten in return, and we all know how bad the Olivera deal was (and then compounded with the subsequent bad Kemp acquisition).

    Only one of the trades was truly good, which is obviously the Swanson/Inciarte deal. That one trade made up for the lost value the Braves suffered in the Kimbrel and Olivera deals. So yes, thank God for Dave Stewart.

    All the rest of the deals are nothing special. Any competent sports GM would have done about the same if given identical scenarios.

    So 2 bad trades, 1 amazing trade (largely the result of luck) that largely covered up the 2 bad ones, and a bunch of average trades. Precisely why I rate Coppy as an average or slightly below average GM.

    His inability to identify and fix the most obvious holes on the MLB roster with cost effective solutions is what makes him below average in my evaluations.
    I truly try to block that trade out of my mind

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I truly try to block that trade out of my mind
    I have broken 6 pairs of my homer glasses trying to see that one even average for the Braves.

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    At the risk of going into another rant against WAR let me say that I doubt Miller would have imploded if he stayed with Atlanta nor do I think Heywood would have had such a great year if not with the Cardinals. They seem to have the magic dust Bobby Cox used to have to get the most out of players.
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    It’s over."


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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I think only two of the trades were truly bad: Kimbrel and Olivera. We have seen the type of talent Kimbrel should have gotten in return, and we all know how bad the Olivera deal was (and then compounded with the subsequent bad Kemp acquisition).

    Only one of the trades was truly good, which is obviously the Swanson/Inciarte deal. That one trade made up for the lost value the Braves suffered in the Kimbrel and Olivera deals. So yes, thank God for Dave Stewart.

    All the rest of the deals are nothing special. Any competent sports GM would have done about the same if given identical scenarios.

    So 2 bad trades, 1 amazing trade (largely the result of luck) that largely covered up the 2 bad ones, and a bunch of average trades. Precisely why I rate Coppy as an average or slightly below average GM.

    His inability to identify and fix the most obvious holes on the MLB roster with cost effective solutions is what makes him below average in my evaluations. 3B has been a black hole since Chipper retired, yet the Braves insist on going with guys like Garcia instead of signing below market guys like Freese. Corner OF has produced poorly, especially LF, and the solution was to acquire Markakis and Kemp during rebuilding years. There isn't a single viable starting catcher in the entire system, and they couldn't beat the Twins' $25M offer for Castro. The bench this year is absolutely putrid, and there were options for a legit 4th OFer all offseason, yet the Braves have Bonifacio on the roster.

    The examples go on and on...
    So if a trade is about the right value on both sides, then the deal is average, or nothing special. But if a team clearly wins a trade, then it's luck.

    And we're going to render a verdict on all of this 1-2 years after the deals when a lot of our return was for prospects who weren't expected to make an impact within the first 1-2 years. Got it.

    National writers are virtually unanimous in the assertion that our rebuild has been a clear success so far.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Preacher View Post
    Totally get your numbers here -- but for a rebuilding team what good was Heyward for one last year, part of the appeal for Miller was getting him for four years where you can either build around him or deal him latter for more assets. We also got Tyrell Jenkins who has been flipped for Luke Jackson - a guy with the arm talent to be a pretty good reliever.
    I included the estimate for Miller for the entire 4 years we got for him, which is how he got to 5.9 WAR

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    I included the estimate for Miller for the entire 4 years we got for him, which is how he got to 5.9 WAR
    You project a guy who put up close to 4 WAR in the one season we had him, and about 10 WAR in the 3 seasons before the trade, to accumulate about 2 WAR over the next 3 years?

    I would argue that his struggles last year were almost entirely caused by the pressure placed on him by being the other side of one of the most lopsided deals we've ever seen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    So if a trade is about the right value on both sides, then the deal is average, or nothing special. But if a team clearly wins a trade, then it's luck.

    And we're going to render a verdict on all of this 1-2 years after the deals when a lot of our return was for prospects who weren't expected to make an impact within the first 1-2 years. Got it.

    National writers are virtually unanimous in the assertion that our rebuild has been a clear success so far.
    Having a successful rebuild doesn't make a GM above average. Literally every single team that has undergone a rebuild in the last decade has been able to construct a good farm system. Nothing special is happening in Atlanta. Coppy isn't weaving any voodoo magic.

    Look, I know it's hard to admit Coppy isn't exceptional. Me calling him average isn't a knock...it's just calling someone average. Maybe you can relate to a squirrely bald white guy and that's why you love him so much, but it's not the worst thing to call a guy an average or below average MLB GM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Having a successful rebuild doesn't make a GM above average. Literally every single team that has undergone a rebuild in the last decade has been able to construct a good farm system. Nothing special is happening in Atlanta. Coppy isn't weaving any voodoo magic.

    Look, I know it's hard to admit Coppy isn't exceptional. Me calling him average isn't a knock...it's just calling someone average. Maybe you can relate to a squirrely bald white guy and that's why you love him so much, but it's not the worst thing to call a guy an average or below average MLB GM.
    Except that those writers are all pretty much in unanimous agreement that they've never seen a system this deep in legitimate talent. So it's not quite right to say that this rebuild is just like any other. Yes, of course you will always receive young talent when selling off assets. But the speed with which we've rebuilt the system, and the extent to which we've used every method to continue to add high-upside talent, is not exactly 'normal' or 'nothing special'.

    I'm not trying to say that it's unquestioned that Coppy is better than all other GMs in baseball. I'm not yet sold that he's clearly among the top handful or anything. But calling him below-average when we haven't even had enough time to see if his strategy to go after upside at all costs is going to work is asinine. Is trading a somewhat known commodity in Mallex for the pure upside of Gohara smart? Will taking upside over injury risk to get better talent in Fried play out to our benefit? Is taking so many HS arms at the top of the draft smart? Is going after a bunch of guys, especially pitchers, in the hopes that if enough hit, we're set, a good strategy? We don't really know yet. We can guess and use historical data and valuation estimates and whatnot to inform that guess...but we don't know.

    Look, I know it's hard to admit that Coppy may be better than you give him credit for being. Me saying I agree with his overall strategy and a lot of the moves he's made isn't a glowing endorsement of everything he does or touches...it's just saying I agree with his overall strategy and a lot of the moves he's made. Maybe you can't relate to someone who doesn't talk sick, reality-altering trash at cornhole and that's why you can't stand the thought of him, but it's not the worst thing to say the GM of a team you're not particularly a fan of may be a good one.

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