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Thread: April Strikeout Rates for Our Hitters

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    April Strikeout Rates for Our Hitters

    Some hitting data take larger samples than others to provide a reliable indication of a change. BABIP numbers for April for example are pretty meaningless. Of the numbers I look at, hitter strikeout rates are the fastest to stabilize. So I'm going to take a look at what has happened to strikeout rates for our hitters relative their performances in 2015 and 2016. The caveat remains that the sample is small. But this is the one piece of data that could provide an indication of improvement or regression in some of our hitters.

    Freeman's strikeout rate so far is 18.2. This would be a career low if sustained. As if the eyeball test were not good enough, another indication that he is moving to a higher level as a hitter.

    Markakis' K rate stands at 23.7%, up from 14.8 last year. Last year's number was relatively high for him. So I see a red flag here.

    Brandon Phillips is at 12.6, in the middle of the range seen in the prior 3 years. Some of his success this year is due to a high BABIP, but I also think he has a good chance of being a productive player for us this year even with some normalization of the BABIP.

    Inciarte is at 17.5, up from a career average of 11.6. I'm a little concerned that the home runs are causing him to get away from what has worked for him in the past.

    Swanson is at 25.7, up from 23.4 last year. His issue has mainly been a very low BABIP. But the strikeout rate (mainly because of trouble with the slider) is a reminder that his offensive upside is limited, as it is for any non-power hitter who strikes out a quarter of the time. The issues with the slider btw are also contributing to weak contact and the low BABIP.

    Flowers is at 22.5, down from 28.0 last year, which itself was below career norms. We could have a late bloomer on our hands.

    Suzuki is at 15.2, up about 3% from his numbers in recent years.

    Adonis Garcia is at 15.7, about 1% less than his career average. I'm kind of neutral on this guy. We need an upgrade at third, but mostly he's hit in bad luck (.204 BABIP) so far this year.

    Kemp is at 23.5%, very close to his numbers last year and his career mark. I'm middle of the road on Kemp. I think he will be a 1-2 win player for us this year.

    Jace Peterson is at 23.7%, up from 16.9 last year. Small sample, but I'm a little concerned he is not building on the solid play we saw from him in the second half of last year.

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    A Chip Off the Old Rock Julio3000's Avatar
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    I'm with the crowd who thinks FF has graduated to elite status.

    The guys I see here to worry about are Neck and Swanson. I've assumed that, when all is said and done, Neck is gonna be Neck, maybe a tad worse than last year. Still, he's striking out a ton.

    Swanson's BIP are going to improve, but he's K'ing way too much for a guy with no more pop than he's got.

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    I <3 Ron Paul + gilesfan sturg33's Avatar
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    I remember last year when I asked if we would trade Swanson for Turner straight up and people laughably said no

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    2019. Definitely 2019. GovClintonTyree's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Julio3000 View Post
    I'm with the crowd who thinks FF has graduated to elite status.

    The guys I see here to worry about are Neck and Swanson. I've assumed that, when all is said and done, Neck is gonna be Neck, maybe a tad worse than last year. Still, he's striking out a ton.

    Swanson's BIP are going to improve, but he's K'ing way too much for a guy with no more pop than he's got.
    Perhaps he should spend some time in the minor leagues learning to hit breaking pitches.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GovClintonTyree View Post
    Perhaps he should spend some time in the minor leagues learning to hit breaking pitches.
    it's a difficult business decision when you consider the impact he has had on attendance and merchandise sales

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    PosiBraves Hell Gatekeeper
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    Quote Originally Posted by GovClintonTyree View Post
    Perhaps he should spend some time in the minor leagues learning to hit breaking pitches.
    He did...

    AAA PAs: 541
    AAA OPS: .908
    Braves record in 2011: 89-73

    Now let's look at Swanson's scenario...

    AAA PAs: 0
    AA PAs: 377
    AA OPS: .745
    Braves record in 2017: non-contenders

    I'm sorry you can't comprehend the differences between the scenarios surrounding Freeman's and Swanson's promotions. However, just because you are too limited intellectually to understand them doesn't make those differences go away.

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    Some data on May strikeout rates:

    Inciarte: 12.9%, back to something close to career norms after a relatively high rate in April, good to see

    Flowers: 15.4%, it keeps dropping, reinforcing my view that we have a late bloomer on our hands

    Markakis: 21.0%, same as in April, camouflaged so far by the .400+ BABIP, but not good

    Swanson: 29.6%, not good...BABIP has bounced back in May, so it is no longer a luck issue that is holding him back

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    I remember last year when I asked if we would trade Swanson for Turner straight up and people laughably said no
    I remember when people used to come here to contribute, instead of posting if they were right on a topic or not months ago.

    Toot toot that horn!
    "No thanks, I'd rather sit in the balcony" - Abe Lincoln

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    I remember when people used to come here to contribute, instead of posting if they were right on a topic or not months ago.

    Toot toot that horn!
    Unfortunately this is our 3 consecutive (self-inflicted) year of being cellar dwellers... there's bound to be more negative than positive

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    I've noticed Markakis K-rate is up. Not a good sign, especially because it looks like we may be back to his 2015 power numbers. I still think he'd be a decent pick-up for a contender to play a limited role. Hate to use the term "professional hitter," but Markakis does fit the description.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Some data on May strikeout rates:

    Inciarte: 12.9%, back to something close to career norms after a relatively high rate in April, good to see

    Flowers: 15.4%, it keeps dropping, reinforcing my view that we have a late bloomer on our hands

    Markakis: 21.0%, same as in April, camouflaged so far by the .400+ BABIP, but not good

    Swanson: 29.6%, not good...BABIP has bounced back in May, so it is no longer a luck issue that is holding him back
    Over the last 14 days, Swanson's K rate has been 34.8%. He has ridden a .400 BABIP to a .268/.326/.366 (.692 OPS) line during that time.

    He is in the middle of a "lucky" streak, and it is only producing a .692 OPS. He needs to figure out the K issue. He is still clueless against sliders in the few ABs I have seen lately. I honestly can't remember ever seeing an MLB player be so bad at handling a specific pitch.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Over the last 14 days, Swanson's K rate has been 34.8%. He has ridden a .400 BABIP to a .268/.326/.366 (.692 OPS) line during that time.

    He is in the middle of a "lucky" streak, and it is only producing a .692 OPS. He needs to figure out the K issue. He is still clueless against sliders in the few ABs I have seen lately. I honestly can't remember ever seeing an MLB player be so bad at handling a specific pitch.
    How can you forget Jeffery Franchise so quickly?

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    Although the sample is relatively small, we can add Matt Adams to the list of hitters whose strikeout rates have moved up this year. 35.1% versus a career average of 23.3%.

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