MINORS THREAD FINAL4/27 ... Walkoff HR for Franco

[weso1]

I wonder if a guy in this day in age could throw 85% fastballs around 89-91 mph and still pitch to a low to mid 3 era. No chance.

Especially if that guy is fat and out of shape and old.

[bravesfanMatt]

Especially if that guy is fat and out of shape and old.

Basically a fat, old guy tells 10 hitters that he is going to throw them ~90 mph fastball 9 out of the next 10 pitches and only 3 of those guys will figure out how to get on base.

[msstate7]

Basically a fat, old guy tells 10 hitters that he is going to throw them ~90 mph fastball 9 out of the next 10 pitches and only 3 of those guys will figure out how to get on base.

Posi-braves assemble! You make yourself look so dumb with every post....

Took care of it, enscheff.

[sturg33]

Folty was pitching effectively in the Majors at age 24. And Folty's walks were decreasing in the minors - and have stayed pretty low in the majors

Newcomb is struggling in the minors at age soon to be 24. his walks are getting worse, not better.

I'm not "giving up" on Newcomb. But I'm not confident he's going to be that TOR we all were hoping for when we traded a chear 4 WAR player for him

When evaluating minor league pitchers, I look at walks and strikeouts. And that's about it.

[50PoundHead]

I wonder if a guy in this day in age could throw 85% fastballs around 89-91 mph and still pitch to a low to mid 3 era. No chance.

I've mentioned him before, but Kyle Hendricks seems to be doing pretty well and his fastball rarely, if ever, hits 90 mph. Who knows on Soroka. Big kid. Maybe he can add a notch or two to his fastball and then his ceiling goes all the way the penthouse. The kid is only 19. Can we wait a bit?

[Enscheff]

Posi-braves assemble! You make yourself look so dumb with every post....

Took care of it, enscheff.

I don't even know what these twits are talking about. They mention a fat guy throwing 90 and pitching to a low-3 ERA, and I assume they mean Colon. If present-day Colon is what they want Soroka to be, then I don't understand why he gives them such a boner.

They don't realize Colon had dominant stuff when he was in his prime...much more than a 90-91 FB.

They are so stupid I can't even figure out what point they are trying to make.

[TheBravos]

I wonder if a guy in this day in age could throw 85% fastballs around 89-91 mph and still pitch to a low to mid 3 era. No chance.

Keep in mind some guys did that in the roid and no defensive shift era...so yeah...I'd say it's possible.

[Enscheff]

Guys like Soroka are hard to project. It's absolutely possible to be a TOR pitcher without throwing mid-90s. It's just not as easy and it's much harder to predict.

That being said, I think it is nearly impossible to be an ace without having good stuff. However, just because you don't throw 95 doesn't mean you don't have good stuff. Too often good stuff is synonymous with velocity because that's what's most common. Guys like Maddux and Glavine actually had very good stuff. Maddux's fastball may have come in at 91 but it moved like crazy. Glavine's fastball wasn't elite but his changeup was one of the best in the game. Still, without the ability to blow hitters away you usually need pinpoint precision which both those guys had.

That brings us to guys like Soroka. It's very hard to predict guys like this. Often when you have a guy who had good command he'll do very well in the low minors because he's more advanced than his competition. These stats are often mirages that wont hold up at higher levels. It can be hard to differentiate a guy who is more advanced than his competition and takes advantage of that and someone who has that special control that will allow him to be successful.

This is why watching Soroka at AA and AAA is so important. If his success holds up (and it looks good so far) then that's a big mark in his favor. It will show that his success isn't simply based on being more advanced than others in the low minors. I'm not sure what Soroka will be but I like him and am very encouraged by his results.

This fallacy is what a lot of the derptards build their "velocity doesn't matter" argument around.

First of all, Maddux threw in the 92-93 range in his peak. Glavine touched the low 90s.

Secondly, 90-93 was much higher velocity relative to the rest of the league 20 years ago than it is today.

Anyone who thinks Soroka can be a TOR starter in modern day MLB with a 90-91 FB is completely delusional.

He either gains a few ticks, or he tops out as a #4 ground ball pitcher.

[thewupk]

I've mentioned him before, but Kyle Hendricks seems to be doing pretty well and his fastball rarely, if ever, hits 90 mph. Who knows on Soroka. Big kid. Maybe he can add a notch or two to his fastball and then his ceiling goes all the way the penthouse. The kid is only 19. Can we wait a bit?

What Hendricks has done the last 2 years might be a good comp for Soroka's ceiling. A mid to low 3 FIP is probably the best you could expect someone like that to top out at. Hendricks is also showing that having that type of stuff doesn't leave much room for error. He's slipped some so far this year and is numbers aren't pretty.

That's not to say Sorokoa or pitchers like him can't be successful. But if you are topping out at 90 mph on your fastball the rest of your ability (command, pitch selection, movement, etc) have to be on point almost all the time. That is somewhat rare. Even rarer to do it year after year after year.

So yeah I would expect the ceiling for Soroka to be what Hendricks has done. Not unheard of by any means.

[Enscheff]

What Hendricks has done the last 2 years might be a good comp for Soroka's ceiling. A mid to low 3 FIP is probably the best you could expect someone like that to top out at. Hendricks is also showing that having that type of stuff doesn't leave much room for error. He's slipped some so far this year and is numbers aren't pretty.

That's not to say Sorokoa or pitchers like him can't be successful. But if you are topping out at 90 mph on your fastball the rest of your ability (command, pitch selection, movement, etc) have to be on point almost all the time. That is somewhat rare. Even rarer to do it year after year after year.

So yeah I would expect the ceiling for Soroka to be what Hendricks has done. Not unheard of by any means.

And Hendricks is pretty much the prototypical #4 starter on a good team.

[TheBravos]

This fallacy is what a lot of the derptards build their "velocity doesn't matter" argument around.

First of all, Maddux threw in the 92-93 range in his peak. Glavine touched the low 90s.

Secondly, 90-93 was much higher velocity relative to the rest of the league 20 years ago than it is today.

Anyone who thinks Soroka can be a TOR starter in modern day MLB with a 90-91 FB is completely delusional.

He either gains a few ticks, or he tops out as a #4 ground ball pitcher.

My thoughts are that with Soroka's height and young age...he "should/could" pick up 2-3 miles an hours as he gets older.

[bravesfanMatt]

literally if a guy can tell you he is going to throw you 10 fastballs and only 3 guys out of 10 could get on base, then any fool could realize that if you mixed other pitches in that were effective, then you don't have to throw 95 to get guys out.

some people are just hard up for speed and power.. they think homeruns and 98 are the new age of baseball. Similar to having a fast car can makes up for a little pecker... They don't understand intelligence and substance. I assume these people think Maddux would be #4 in today's game as well.

[striker42]

This fallacy is what a lot of the derptards build their "velocity doesn't matter" argument around.

First of all, Maddux threw in the 92-93 range in his peak. Glavine touched the low 90s.

Secondly, 90-93 was much higher velocity relative to the rest of the league 20 years ago than it is today.

Anyone who thinks Soroka can be a TOR starter in modern day MLB with a 90-91 FB is completely delusional.

He either gains a few ticks, or he tops out as a #4 ground ball pitcher.

I don't care if Maddux was pitching 20 years ago or today. He'd still be an incredibly successful ace.

Maddux might have topped out at 92-93 in his peak but he sat more around 90-91. But the difference isn't really material. Maddux had good stuff not because of velocity. Maddux had good stuff because of movement. That two seam fastball would look like it was a foot off the plate and then dart back and clip the corner. At 91 that's just filthy.

I think it's entirely possible for Soroka to be a TOR starter with a 90-91 MPH fastball. I do not think it is likely. It's very, very rare for a player to be able to do that. They have to make up for the loss in velocity with movement and exceptional control. That just really, really rare.

I also think its ridiculous to say he tops out as a number 4 starter unless his fastball jumps a couple MPH (which I think it might given his build and age). There are a lot of guys who are successful 2-3 starters with a fastball around 91. We have one in our rotation right now named Julio Teheran.

[bravesfanMatt]

I don't care if Maddux was pitching 20 years ago or today. He'd still be an incredibly successful ace.

Maddux might have topped out at 92-93 in his peak but he sat more around 90-91. But the difference isn't really material. Maddux had good stuff not because of velocity. Maddux had good stuff because of movement. That two seam fastball would look like it was a foot off the plate and then dart back and clip the corner. At 91 that's just filthy.

I think it's entirely possible for Soroka to be a TOR starter with a 90-91 MPH fastball. I do not think it is likely. It's very, very rare for a player to be able to do that. They have to make up for the loss in velocity with movement and exceptional control. That just really, really rare.

I also think its ridiculous to say he tops out as a number 4 starter unless his fastball jumps a couple MPH (which I think it might given his build and age). There are a lot of guys who are successful 2-3 starters with a fastball around 91. We have one in our rotation right now named Julio Teheran.

how many 97 mph guys get knocked around. Hitters can hit a guy throwing 98 just as easy as 91.. the key is deception and movement. I could burry 5 sliders on the outside corner and then throw an 88 mph fastball on your hands and you would never catch up to it. even if I told you it was coming.

[bravesfanMatt]

Posi-braves assemble! You make yourself look so dumb with every post....

Took care of it, enscheff.

kind of funny, he thought you were serious.

[Enscheff]

I don't care if Maddux was pitching 20 years ago or today. He'd still be an incredibly successful ace.

Maddux might have topped out at 92-93 in his peak but he sat more around 90-91. But the difference isn't really material. Maddux had good stuff not because of velocity. Maddux had good stuff because of movement. That two seam fastball would look like it was a foot off the plate and then dart back and clip the corner. At 91 that's just filthy.

I think it's entirely possible for Soroka to be a TOR starter with a 90-91 MPH fastball. I do not think it is likely. It's very, very rare for a player to be able to do that. They have to make up for the loss in velocity with movement and exceptional control. That just really, really rare.

I also think its ridiculous to say he tops out as a number 4 starter unless his fastball jumps a couple MPH (which I think it might given his build and age). There are a lot of guys who are successful 2-3 starters with a fastball around 91. We have one in our rotation right now named Julio Teheran.

Go look up how hard Teheran was throwing in his early years. It wasn't 90-91.

Look, you guys can continue to say the same thing you always say about guys with mediocre stuff. You always say the same things, and it always turns out the same way.

I suppose that's the beauty of being a Posi-Braves...you never get jaded by actual facts.

[thewupk]

literally if a guy can tell you he is going to throw you 10 fastballs and only 3 guys out of 10 could get on base, then any fool could realize that if you mixed other pitches in that were effective, then you don't have to throw 95 to get guys out.

some people are just hard up for speed and power.. they think homeruns and 98 are the new age of baseball. Similar to having a fast car can makes up for a little pecker... They don't understand intelligence and substance. I assume these people think Maddux would be #4 in today's game as well.

I doubt many intelligent people think this. In the world of FIP a pitcher has control of 3 things. Strikeouts, walks, and homers. What's put in play is normalized because all fielding isn't qual. Pretty standard that the more strikeouts you have, the less walks and homers you give up generally the better you will be. Maddux excelled at 2 of these and was slightly above average at the other one. For starters since WW2 with at least 1500 innings Maddux had the 7th lowest BB/9 and 34th lowest HR/9. This is from a sample of 374 starters.

Being that good at 2/3rds of the problem will get you places regardless of the era you pitch in.

[striker42]

Go look up how hard Teheran was throwing in his early years. It wasn't 90-91.

Look, you guys can continue to say the same thing you always say about guys with mediocre stuff. You always say the same things, and it always turns out the same way.

I suppose that's the beauty of being a Posi-Braves...you never get jaded by actual facts.

I'm not talking about Teheran's early years. I'm talking about right now. Right now he's throwing 90-91 and is a successful number 2 starter. My point is that throwing 90-91 doesn't cap your potential at #4. So if Soroka is in the majors throwing 91, that wont cap his potential at being a #4.

And I'm not making any predictions about Soroka. I said earlier in this thread that these guys can be hard to predict. You never know when a kid is taking advantage of being more advanced than the hitters he's facing and when he's just that good. The higher levels will tell a lot. The early results are encouraging but we'll see as he moves along.

Also, velocity and stuff aren't the same thing. Velocity certainly helps but there are other ways to be nasty than to throw 98.

[bravesfanMatt]

I doubt many intelligent people think this. In the world of FIP a pitcher has control of 3 things. Strikeouts, walks, and homers. What's put in play is normalized because all fielding isn't qual. Pretty standard that the more strikeouts you have, the less walks and homers you give up generally the better you will be. Maddux excelled at 2 of these and was slightly above average at the other one. For starters since WW2 with at least 1500 innings Maddux had the 7th lowest BB/9 and 34th lowest HR/9. This is from a sample of 374 starters.

Being that good at 2/3rds of the problem will get you places regardless of the era you pitch in.

but speed..

[TheBravos]

It's different for the older college guys, but again...these guys in their teens are gonna gain weight and muscle. Heck a few might still even grow more. An 18-19 year old's fastball will most likely gain velocity. I remember how much I filled out between 18-23.