GDT 5/2/17: Braves vs. Mets

[thethe]

Eh. I think it happens on extreme ends (like if you put Adonis behind him, Freddie would probably see fewer good pitches). But even then, I don't think it's a huge impact. And once you're picking between solid hitters and good hitters, I don't think it really affects anything. I don't think a pitcher is thinking, 'Man, I need to make sure I give Freeman something better to hit because I don't want to pitch to Kemp.'

Not better to hit but I cant just pitch on the edges because it doesn't matter if I walk freeman.

[smootness]

I agree with this. Absent a critical injury, I think our offense should end up being fairly average. We have one of the best hitters in the game in Freeman, a good leadoff man in Inciarte, and some competent (if not perfect) bats in Markakis, Kemp, and Phillips. Flowers is at least average as far as catchers go. Allowing for poor contributions from third and short, the offense should balance out around average.

Honestly, an average offense paired with an average starting staff should keep us in the fight for a .500 record, especially if we can fix the pen a bit. While that's not a team in "contention" it is at least a competitive team.

Inciarte is ok as a leadoff man, I don't know if I'd say he's good there. His OBP is currently below .300, though he has had unexpected power so far.

On the other hand, I would say Kemp is more than a competent bat. His defense is truly terrible, which is why his overall value is limited. But he is a legit bat.

[Southcack77]

I predicted we'd have a roughly average offense this year, and I still believe that will be the case. Freeman, Flowers, and Kemp will slow down, but Dansby will pick it up quite a bit and we'll end up with something better out of Adonis' spot, either through him improving or Albies taking his spot.

I don't see how Albies is going to replace Garcia. Trying to work out how a shift of personnel might have that effect, but drawing a blank. Neither Albies nor Phillips is a third baseman.

[smootness]

I don't see how Albies is going to replace Garcia. Trying to work out how a shift of personnel might have that effect, but drawing a blank. Neither Albies nor Phillips is a third baseman.

Either should be able to shift over without too much problem. They both have good enough arms.

[thewupk]

The Braves BABIP is .310 despite having had several players start a lot worse than you would expect. The league average is .300, which would be ok. .310 is generally good for about fifth or sixth in MLB, which isn't a huge outlier. Quite possible it's sustainable, but if not I doubt it will regress all the way to below average.

The Braves may have a low walk rate, but they also have one of MLB's best K rates. In essence they are putting the ball in play at a very high rate. Again, you would not expect that to regress to below average.

Seems like the Braves offense figures to be average minus big regression plus continued futility from some guys who have hit better.

I believe that you were ok with using the first week or two as a sample size.

there really is no reason to think the Braves offense won't be competent absent injury or trade, which are both very possible scenarios. In fact, injury is probably likely and would be the best explanation for why the Braves offense slips to below average this season. Atlanta has a number of competent major league hitters who may be post prime, but have not fallen off the earth just yet. Usually, its injury that stops those kind of guys from performing to prime.

MLB wide BABIP is 290 right now. Braves as a team are hitting 268/330/423 (5th highest OPS in NL). Adjusting the Braves team 310 BABIP to 290 gives them a line of 253/313/408. That number would put them at 10th highest OPS in the NL. Also their park adjusted number would be lower then that likely either 11th or 12th. The low K% helps but honestly it's not that big of a factor compared to ISO, BB%, and BABIP.

edited for typo

[Southcack77]

Yeah, I think that's about right.

Me too. Assuming relative good health.

[thethe]

I don't see how Albies is going to replace Garcia. Trying to work out how a shift of personnel might have that effect, but drawing a blank. Neither Albies nor Phillips is a third baseman.

It actually looks like Garcia is slowly breaking out of his month long sucktitude. I don't think Albies is going to be up for a long time.

[Southcack77]

I agree with this. Absent a critical injury, I think our offense should end up being fairly average. We have one of the best hitters in the game in Freeman, a good leadoff man in Inciarte, and some competent (if not perfect) bats in Markakis, Kemp, and Phillips. Flowers is at least average as far as catchers go. Allowing for poor contributions from third and short, the offense should balance out around average.

Honestly, an average offense paired with an average starting staff should keep us in the fight for a .500 record, especially if we can fix the pen a bit. While that's not a team in "contention" it is at least a competitive team.

My prediction was that the pitching would be below average and I still kind of see that coming to fruition. But I would guess this team will be on pace for 75-82 games until they have big injuries or sell off parts (which they absolutely should do).

[thewupk]

Assuming we can agree on what the terms average, above average and below average might be, I think it is fairly likely that the Braves will be an average team in the NL in terms of runs scored.

Above Average: Ranks in the top 5 in the NL

Average: Ranks 6-10 in the NL

Below Average: Ranks in the bottom 5 in the NL

I prefer breaking it down into 5ths'.

Good: 1-3
Above Average:4-6
Average: 7-9
Below Average: 10-12
Bad: 13-15

Of course sometimes the differences at those points can be just a couple of extra hits but such is the way MLB goes where an extra hit a week can turn an average hitter into an all-star.

[nsacpi]

I prefer breaking it down into 5ths'.

Good: 1-3
Above Average:4-6
Average: 7-9
Below Average: 10-12
Bad: 13-15

Of course sometimes the differences at those points can be just a couple of extra hits but such is the way MLB goes where an extra hit a week can turn an average hitter into an all-star.

so where do u expect the team to end up

[thewupk]

so where do u expect the team to end up

I predicted bottom 3rd of the league going into the season. To be more specific I will say they end up at 11th in WRC+. I think they will end up higher in runs per game because I think Suntrust will end up the 2nd best hitting environment in the NL.

[50PoundHead]

The concept of protection is pretty clear. If you believe the 8th hitter is pitched around in the NL then you believe in protection.

But that is at the extreme end. I believe that there is such a thing as protection in the line-up, but a lot of the effect is largely relevant in isolated instances only. When it's early in the game, I don't think it matters that much about who is behind a hitter. Situations are going to dictate whether or not (or how) to pitch to Freeman more than the fact that Kemp is hitting behind him.

[Nerfherders]

As a side note, I was finally able to watch a game on replay. I was thinking for awhile that they closed that loophole because every one Ive tried before was blacked out.

[thethe]

But that is at the extreme end. I believe that there is such a thing as protection in the line-up, but a lot of the effect is largely relevant in isolated instances only. When it's early in the game, I don't think it matters that much about who is behind a hitter. Situations are going to dictate whether or not (or how) to pitch to Freeman more than the fact that Kemp is hitting behind him.

That's a fine explanation but the claim that protection is a myth is not accurate. If it fails the sniff test at the extreme then that's all you need.

[thewupk]

That's a fine explanation but the claim that protection is a myth is not accurate. If it fails the sniff test at the extreme then that's all you need.

This of course is not what proponents of protection are arguing. You think having Kemp in the lineup is making Freddie a better hitter. That is false. As 50 said, in certain game situations Freeman may be pitched differently. Compared to the vast majority of PA's a player gets it's just a drop in the bucket. It is different with the 8th place hitter because they will have the pitcher behind them 66-75% of the time.

Again, if having good hitters behind you helped your hitting it would show up on a consistent basis. Not in random spots here and there.

[thethe]

This of course is not what proponents of protection are arguing. You think having Kemp in the lineup is making Freddie a better hitter. That is false. As 50 said, in certain game situations Freeman may be pitched differently. Compared to the vast majority of PA's a player gets it's just a drop in the bucket. It is different with the 8th place hitter because they will have the pitcher behind them 66-75% of the time.

Again, if having good hitters behind you helped your hitting it would show up on a consistent basis. Not in random spots here and there.

I've never said that protection makes hitters better. I've said that it helps a player perform better.

[msstate7]

Again, if having good hitters behind you helped your hitting it would show up on a consistent basis. Not in random spots here and there.

If it helps you hit 1 time, then it helped. If it helps, it helps... may not be a huge difference though. You can't claim it doesn't help and then say well, it only helps sometimes

ETA... If say FF believes having KEMvP behind him offers protection, then it probably helps FF. I think at least some portion of playing baseball is mental

[thethe]

Exactly. It either exists or it doesnt.any on this board have made the claim it's a complete myth.

[nsacpi]

If it helps you hit 1 time, then it helped. If it helps, it helps... may not be a huge difference though. You can't claim it doesn't help and then say well, it only helps sometimes

ETA... If say FF believes having KEMvP behind him offers protection, then it probably helps FF. I think at least some portion of playing baseball is mental

we have some data on how Freddie hits w and without Kemp protection

[msstate7]

we have some data on how Freddie hits w and without Kemp protection

What is it?