Inciarte is ok as a leadoff man, I don't know if I'd say he's good there. His OBP is currently below .300, though he has had unexpected power so far.
On the other hand, I would say Kemp is more than a competent bat. His defense is truly terrible, which is why his overall value is limited. But he is a legit bat.
MLB wide BABIP is 290 right now. Braves as a team are hitting 268/330/423 (5th highest OPS in NL). Adjusting the Braves team 310 BABIP to 290 gives them a line of 253/313/408. That number would put them at 10th highest OPS in the NL. Also their park adjusted number would be lower then that likely either 11th or 12th. The low K% helps but honestly it's not that big of a factor compared to ISO, BB%, and BABIP.
edited for typo
Last edited by thewupk; 05-03-2017 at 09:18 AM.
I prefer breaking it down into 5ths'.
Good: 1-3
Above Average:4-6
Average: 7-9
Below Average: 10-12
Bad: 13-15
Of course sometimes the differences at those points can be just a couple of extra hits but such is the way MLB goes where an extra hit a week can turn an average hitter into an all-star.
But that is at the extreme end. I believe that there is such a thing as protection in the line-up, but a lot of the effect is largely relevant in isolated instances only. When it's early in the game, I don't think it matters that much about who is behind a hitter. Situations are going to dictate whether or not (or how) to pitch to Freeman more than the fact that Kemp is hitting behind him.
As a side note, I was finally able to watch a game on replay. I was thinking for awhile that they closed that loophole because every one Ive tried before was blacked out.
This of course is not what proponents of protection are arguing. You think having Kemp in the lineup is making Freddie a better hitter. That is false. As 50 said, in certain game situations Freeman may be pitched differently. Compared to the vast majority of PA's a player gets it's just a drop in the bucket. It is different with the 8th place hitter because they will have the pitcher behind them 66-75% of the time.
Again, if having good hitters behind you helped your hitting it would show up on a consistent basis. Not in random spots here and there.
If it helps you hit 1 time, then it helped. If it helps, it helps... may not be a huge difference though. You can't claim it doesn't help and then say well, it only helps sometimes
ETA... If say FF believes having KEMvP behind him offers protection, then it probably helps FF. I think at least some portion of playing baseball is mental
Last edited by msstate7; 05-03-2017 at 11:27 AM.
Exactly. It either exists or it doesnt.any on this board have made the claim it's a complete myth.