Yes, we all know you have no concern for facts.
This data is compiled from the last 25 years of prospect lists. Prospects have been climbing up and dropping down these very same lists for the last 25 years, and this data is the end result of all that movement.
Nothing is different now than it has been the last 25 years, but don't let facts get in the way of a good Posi-Brave rant.
If Anderson/Gohara continue to have the seasons they are having we may see Anderson as a top 25 prospect and Gohara as top 50.
Then these projections are different. To me its just a lazy analysis. It has merits but you need to dig deeper to see the whole picture.
Natural Immunity Croc
Allard is 19 and doing it in AA. The jump from A+ to AA is the 2nd biggest jump in talent in organized baseball, and Allard skipped A+ entirely. We could be hearing whispers from uninformed fans and commentators about Allard being called up THIS year (as terrible an idea as that would be). Allard has clearly separated himself, and is the only one even coming close to Teheran's prospect status.
And what would change? The bust rate doesn't go down until pitchers are considered Top 10.
Nothing will change your mind though. This group is completely unprecedented in your mind.
What did you think about the Folty and Teheran groups of pitchers? Bet you $100 you were wildly optimistic about them too. I bet I can go find posts you made listing them in future rotations for the next 5 years.
But this group? THIS group is different!!
Should I go dig up your "predictions" of rotations including Teheran, Viz and Delgado? How about the ones where you projected Wisler and Blair in the rotation for the next 5 years?
You have been wrong about every single thing I've ever seen you try to forecast. You were wrong then, and you are wrong now.
Will you ever learn?
how do you fix them in a category?
Allard was top 50 or so before the season. Now he might be top 25. Which category do they go in? Gohara could easily jump up a ton. Soroka and Fried could too. Anderson started high but he could be top 10 at some point. Touki fell out but it's not crazy to see him back in if he kills it in AA.
I think Allard is going to be an ACE
Newcomb will be a MOR
Anderson will be a MOR (but once we see more of this I think he has ACE level ceiling)
Out of Fried/Soroka/Gohara/Sims I think we get one multiple year arm that produces at a MOR or back end.
Then the remainder of the pitching on the farm will produce one more MOR to back-end starter.
Natural Immunity Croc
"Facts" is an interesting choice of words there. Facts are good, but should be tempered by context. What people are doing is saying that the context makes this group potentially different than simple prospect ratings suggest. Just looking at the numbers (facts) misses some important data that does matter in the discussion.