They have been our best starters in AAA and given the struggles of the major league rotation and inevitable injuries to pitchers will likely be given a shot at some point this season. Both have made six starts in AAA this year. I wouldn't mind seeing them get a few more, but I also think they need to be assessed as major league starters at some point. A fair assessment to me is 20-30 starts in the majors and those two have come close to earning it.
With pitchers in the minors, I look mainly at walk and strikeout rates and age for level in assessing their likely contribution in the major leagues, with some weight given to reports on what kind of stuff they have. Those reports indicate that in terms of stuff and upside Newcomb has the edge. But Sims is a year younger and has made more progress in bringing down his walk rate (2.1 per nine innings so far this year versus 4.5 for Newcomb).
If I had to pick one to call up right now, it would probably be Newcomb. But it is a close call and could change depending on how their next few starts go.
I do think the odds are less than 50% for both that they will stick as major league starters. I would say the same for Folty. But if you look at the combined odds for all three, the chances are good one of them will stick. I would be very happy if two of those three stick as starters. One would be kind of like holding serve. But the main thing is to give both Newcomb and Sims an extended opportunity at some point to show they can make it as a major league starter.
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