Would you do this?

[bravesfanforlife88]

If at the end of the season, our team is so bad, we have guaranteed ourselves a top 5 pick again, would you make moves to accelerate this rebuild, or would you try to hit the reset button?

My thinking is that we have a lot of prospects in the lower system. Maitan, Acuna, Newcomb, Allard, Gohara, Jackson, Soroka, etc. I think the quickest way to become competitive sooner rather than later would be to trade Freeman. Granted, I am NOT saying I WANT to trade him, but if we got an offer of guys ready to step up and play now, would that not make more sense for us?

[cajunrevenge]

Let the rebuild happen naturally. Dont sign any big name free agents to long term lucrative contracts. Sign our young players to long term contracts ASAP. Even if they bust we are out about 30 million over 6 years or something like that. Thats practically bench player money these days.

[mqt]

I'd trade everyone but Freeman and the kids. Freeman is young enough that I don't think patience will hurt us with him.

[nsacpi]

I would evaluate trades on a "time neutral" basis. In other words I don't think we should discount wins in a particular season at the expense of another. There are circumstances where this makes sense (mid-season) or at the end of a season when you have very little chance of competing the next.

Now I suspect what I just said will raise some eyebrows. Some people may think we have very little chance next year. I think this overlooks the two most significant developments this season so far in terms of implications for next year. One is Freddie's emergence as an elite player. When you have someone like that you can compete even with a whole lot of average at other positions.

Second, the news on our pitching in the minors has been very good. Most of them have put up really outstanding strikeout and walk rates. And more and more of them are doing it in AA and AAA.

Given those two developments, I'm not inclined to write off 2018. But I'm not inclined to do anything that is specifically focused on "accelerating" the rebuild. I would assess returns on trades on a "time neutral" basis.

[blueagleace1]

I would evaluate trades on a "time neutral" basis. In other words I don't think we should discount wins in a particular season at the expense of another. There are circumstances where this makes sense (mid-season) or at the end of a season when you have very little chance of competing the next.

Now I suspect what I just said will raise some eyebrows. Some people may think we have very little chance next year. I think this overlooks the two most significant developments this season so far in terms of implications for next year. One is Freddie's emergence as an elite player. When you have someone like that you can compete even with a whole lot of average at other positions.

Second, the news on our pitching in the minors has been very good. Most of them have put up really outstanding strikeout and walk rates. And more and more of them are doing it in AA and AAA.

Given those two developments, I'm not inclined to write off 2018. But I'm not inclined to do anything that is specifically focused on "accelerating" the rebuild. I would assess returns on trades on a "time neutral" basis.

Great post and I totally agree!

[jimsnores]

Great post and I totally agree!

Ditto.

[rico43]

Freeman has his contract, and he's the core of any team. I take the money from the dumping of Colon, Dickey, Garcia, Phillips, etc. and lock up Swanson, give Flowers an extension if they can't snare Lecroy, re-sign Johnson if he's reasonable and bank the rest, letting the young guns know that if they prove themselves, a long term deal would be in the offing for them as well.

I trade Teheran, Cabrera, Wisler, Blair for fair market value (if the latter two have any)

[The Chosen One]

Freeman has his contract, and he's the core of any team. I take the money from the dumping of Colon, Dickey, Garcia, Phillips, etc. and lock up Swanson, give Flowers an extension

[thewupk]

Try to sign Swanson way under market after the year he is having. A Flowers extension could be pretty solid gamble. He's posted (so far) back to back years in new career bests in K% and BB%.

[nsacpi]

Try to sign Swanson way under market after the year he is having.

What is market? At the start of the season this was discussed some around here. I said it would be risky to project him as anything more than a 2 win per year player. Others disagreed. I see no reason to change my view. Even 2 wins seems a bit high to me (and seemed high even before the season). Will Swanson and his agent agree to a contract that values him as a 1 win player. If so I'm all for it.

[smootness]

Now is the perfect time to discuss an extension with Swanson, or at least a buy-out of his arbitration years. For two reasons: you show confidence and belief in him while he's struggling, and you do so at the low point in his value.

He may not be willing to take any discount, at which time you put talks on hold. But you at least start the discussion.

[nsacpi]

Freeman has his contract, and he's the core of any team. I take the money from the dumping of Colon, Dickey, Garcia, Phillips, etc. and lock up Swanson, give Flowers an extension if they can't snare Lecroy, re-sign Johnson if he's reasonable and bank the rest, letting the young guns know that if they prove themselves, a long term deal would be in the offing for them as well.

I trade Teheran, Cabrera, Wisler, Blair for fair market value (if the latter two have any)

The devil is in the details on some of these ideas. Locking up Swanson for one. What is the expected future production that should be used to evaluate his compensation. I suspect this might be a hard one for him and the front office to reach agreement on. Trading Teheran for fair market value for another. Is fair valuation 3 expected wins per year or 1 win per year? Details, details. Sometimes they are important.

[JohnAdcox]

I would evaluate trades on a "time neutral" basis. In other words I don't think we should discount wins in a particular season at the expense of another. There are circumstances where this makes sense (mid-season) or at the end of a season when you have very little chance of competing the next.

Now I suspect what I just said will raise some eyebrows. Some people may think we have very little chance next year. I think this overlooks the two most significant developments this season so far in terms of implications for next year. One is Freddie's emergence as an elite player. When you have someone like that you can compete even with a whole lot of average at other positions.

Second, the news on our pitching in the minors has been very good. Most of them have put up really outstanding strikeout and walk rates. And more and more of them are doing it in AA and AAA.

Given those two developments, I'm not inclined to write off 2018. But I'm not inclined to do anything that is specifically focused on "accelerating" the rebuild. I would assess returns on trades on a "time neutral" basis.

That was exceptionally well-argued.

[Enscheff]

If at the end of the season, our team is so bad, we have guaranteed ourselves a top 5 pick again, would you make moves to accelerate this rebuild, or would you try to hit the reset button?

My thinking is that we have a lot of prospects in the lower system. Maitan, Acuna, Newcomb, Allard, Gohara, Jackson, Soroka, etc. I think the quickest way to become competitive sooner rather than later would be to trade Freeman. Granted, I am NOT saying I WANT to trade him, but if we got an offer of guys ready to step up and play now, would that not make more sense for us?

This team has picked its "Core" and declared the selling over. The Core is Freeman, Teheran, Folty, Swanson, Inciarte and Albies. At some point during every rebuild, a team has to draw a line in the sand to declare the tear down over and start trying to improve. The Braves drew that line this offseason.

Whether or not they chose the right time to draw the line, or if they picked the right players to constitute The Core, the biggest mistake they can make is to jump horses mid stream. This current team is the fruits of the rebuild, and they need to sink or swim with what they have.

I think this is why we are seeing them rush guys like Allard and Acuna and Soroka. The FO likely knows they will be judged on their rebuild efforts in the next ~2 years, so they need to get the young studs ready to make an impact soon to save their jobs.

[Southcack77]

This team has picked its "Core" and declared the selling over. The Core is Freeman, Teheran, Folty, Swanson, Inciarte and Albies. At some point during every rebuild, a team has to draw a line in the sand to declare the tear down over and start trying to improve. The Braves drew that line this offseason.

Whether or not they chose the right time to draw the line, or if they picked the right players to constitute The Core, the biggest mistake they can make is to jump horses mid stream. This current team is the fruits of the rebuild, and they need to sink or swim with what they have.

I think this is why we are seeing them rush guys like Allard and Acuna and Soroka. The FO likely knows they will be judged on their rebuild efforts in the next ~2 years, so they need to get the young studs ready to make an impact soon to save their jobs.

I disagree. The Braves have not declared the rebuild over. That would involve signing a free agent with more than a year of control or trading prospects for major league players. they haven't done that.

I don't doubt they hoped that their aging veterans would creak out another season that might have the team have a respectable first half, but imo they know what they have and the plan would be to flip assets if they could.

They would have traded Teheran, I believe, if they had gotten a solid offer. But no one wanted to pay for him like an ace in the end. Maybe they overplayed that, but it isn't the worst thing in the world to have a #3 or #4 starter signed at a reasonable contract. You might be able to flip him for about the same package later.

As to rushing prospects there may be some truth to their wanting to show progress in the minors, but there is also not a whole lot in front of those guys and so far they are handling it ok. I do think Swanson was a head scratcher, but I don't really believe that prospects that are going to end up hitting through the normal course of things are usually ruined by early frustrations. I'd have to see some evidence for that rather than anecdotes.

[TheBravos]

People might think I'm crazy....Freddie (with his contract), might be more valuable or equal to Trout. Mike is only signed thru 2020 and Freddie is signed through 2021. The last three years Freddie maxed out at about $22 mil while trouts last three years are a whooping $33 Mil!! Trout is better, but add the extra year + the extra cash and that's about $50 mil less. I think you look at a comparable Trout deal. They key is how long Freddie is signed.

Now...as many GM's have said...the return required on Trout is so large...it's almost impossible to do. Freddie should be in that ballpark also.

So, you really can't trade him AND it would also be a PR nightmare!! IF someone like the Yankees come hard and offer a huge, team altering package (because they have the money to sign whoever they want and aren't reliant on prospects)...OF COURSE you have to listen. Clearing off that kind of cash off the payroll and getting that kind of talent would be a big deal. We have a better chance of Colon pitching a 1.30 ERA for the rest of the year though.

In saying that....EVERYONE else on the team should be available for the right deal as of now. There are too many holes to fill!!

[Southcack77]

People might think I'm crazy....Freddie (with his contract), might be more valuable or equal to Trout. Mike is only signed thru 2020 and Freddie is signed through 2021. The last three years Freddie maxed out at about $22 mil while trouts last three years are a whooping $33 Mil!! Trout is better, but add the extra year + the extra cash and that's about $50 mil less. I think you look at a comparable Trout deal. They key is how long Freddie is signed.

Now...as many GM's have said...the return required on Trout is so large...it's almost impossible to do. Freddie should be in that ballpark also.

So, you really can't trade him AND it would also be a PR nightmare!! IF someone like the Yankees come hard and offer a huge, team altering package (because they have the money to sign whoever they want and aren't reliant on prospects)...OF COURSE you have to listen. Clearing off that kind of cash off the payroll and getting that kind of talent would be a big deal. We have a better chance of Colon pitching a 1.30 ERA for the rest of the year though.

In saying that....EVERYONE else on the team should be available for the right deal as of now. There are too many holes to fill!!

I don't think Freddie is in the same ballpark as Trout at all. But you are right that the Braves would have to get a serious haul of MLB ready position prospects and high ceiling guys to consider it. If they can get that, then moving him makes sense. But I don't have any indication that Atlanta would consider that now.

Remember, if he does not maintain this pace, his contract looks a lot worse.

[TheBravos]

Let's say the Yankees offered Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres, Justus Sheffield and Kaprielian

[smootness]

Let's say the Yankees offered Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres, Justus Sheffield and Kaprielian

Definitely not, IMO.

[TheBravos]

Definitely not, IMO.

Replace Kaprielian with Judge....how about now?