Swanson

[msstate7]

'16 BB% = 9.0
'17 BB% = 9.7

'16 K% = 23.4
'17 K% = 25.0

'16 BABIP = .383
'17 BABIP = .203

Defensive WAR is positive on both sites now

Think Swanson is about to snap out of it?

[smootness]

I think he'll just gradually bring his numbers up, I don't think he's about to go on a tear or anything. Of course, I hope he does, but I think he'll just start getting the luck of the bounce a little more and slowly bring his numbers up to respectability.

Unless he improves his K rate or starts hitting with more pop, I don't expect his final numbers to be particularly good. But I do think he can end up with a decent year.

[nsacpi]

BABIP will eventually normalize to something in the .300-.320 range.

I think the 25% strikeout rate is more of an issue. Without significant power, a 25% strikeout rate translates to fairly mediocre offensive numbers (less than .700 OPS).

Watching him the last two series, it seems to me his swing with two strikes needs to be cut down a bit. I'm surprised to see a player with a supposedly advanced mental approach take such big hacks with two strikes.

[cajunrevenge]

He will get over it eventually. Heywood had several seasons starting like this.

[Tapate50]

He has been barreling more ball and spitting on more sliders of late. He's coming round.

[Julio3000]

He has been barreling more ball and spitting on more sliders of late. He's coming round.

^agreed^

[Tapate50]

^agreed^

Barrel More Ball \ Make Pitch

[mqt]

His OBP over the second half of the young season is .352, even with a still low BABIP. If he continues to hit the ball hard and draw walks he should be fine.

[Enscheff]

His LD% is down from 22.7% to 17.3%. His FB% is up from 30.9% to 37.0%. His IFFB% doubled from 3.3% to 6.7%. His HR/FB is down from 10% to 6.7%.

He is hitting less line drives, more infield flies (which are basically Ks), more fly balls, and less of those fly balls are leaving the park.

Part of it may be bad luck, but his batted ball profile shows he simply isn't a good hitter right now.

[mqt]

His LD% is down from 22.7% to 17.3%. His FB% is up from 30.9% to 37.0%. His IFFB% doubled from 3.3% to 6.7%. His HR/FB is down from 10% to 6.7%.

He is hitting less line drives, more infield flies (which are basically Ks), more fly balls, and less of those fly balls are leaving the park.

Part of it may be bad luck, but his batted ball profile shows he simply isn't a good hitter right now.

On the other hand, he has one of the lowest Soft Hit% in the Majors right now.

[msstate7]

His LD% is down from 22.7% to 17.3%. His FB% is up from 30.9% to 37.0%. His IFFB% doubled from 3.3% to 6.7%. His HR/FB is down from 10% to 6.7%.

He is hitting less line drives, more infield flies (which are basically Ks), more fly balls, and less of those fly balls are leaving the park.

Part of it may be bad luck, but his batted ball profile shows he simply isn't a good hitter right now.

Saw all that... his soft contact is down, med up, and hard down from last season. Not sure how to interpret all that. Without knowing (and unwilling to look) league avgs, it seems swanson's soft contact rate at 13.6% seems good anyway

[Enscheff]

Saw all that... his soft contact is down, med up, and hard down from last season. Not sure how to interpret all that. Without knowing (and unwilling to look) league avgs, it seems swanson's soft contact rate at 13.6% seems good anyway

There are about 5 different xBABIP equations floating around, but none of them seem to be listed on a player's page. The best/latest one appears to be this one:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/get...he-new-xbabip/

It includes adjustments for how often guys are shifted against and then hit into that shift. Unfortunately, even calculating xBABIP for a single player requires more work than I'm willing to do in the morning.

The previous version doesn't take shift data into account, but that might be OK for Swanson's case since he is more of a spray hitter that isn't shifted against:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/hit...needed-update/

[CrimsonCowboy]

You all are giving me a headache with all these new stats

[smootness]

There are about 5 different xBABIP equations floating around, but none of them seem to be listed on a player's page. The best/latest one appears to be this one:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/get...he-new-xbabip/

It includes adjustments for how often guys are shifted against and then hit into that shift. Unfortunately, even calculating xBABIP for a single player requires more work than I'm willing to do in the morning.

The previous version doesn't take shift data into account, but that might be OK for Swanson's case since he is more of a spray hitter that isn't shifted against:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/hit...needed-update/

Based on the equation that doesn't use shift data, his xBABIP this year is .263. Not good, but obviously much better than his current BABIP of .203.

Using his xBABIP, his xBA becomes .207 and his xOBP is .282, unless I calculated something wrong. Then, even if you're generous and give him a 2B on one of the 5 extra hits he should have, his xSLG becomes .279.

So .207/.282/.279. So yeah, not good. He hasn't been good. But his numbers are at least suppressed some beyond where they should be, and he needs to start hitting a lot better.

[Julio3000]

Barrel More Ball \ Make Pitch

Just make barrels. Watch Neck. Neck make some barrels. Watch Freddie. Freddie make more barrels. More barrels than Jack Daniels. More barrels than Saudi Arabia.

[Enscheff]

Based on the equation that doesn't use shift data, his xBABIP this year is .263. Not good, but obviously much better than his current BABIP of .203.

Using his xBABIP, his xBA becomes .207 and his xOBP is .282, unless I calculated something wrong. Then, even if you're generous and give him a 2B on one of the 5 extra hits he should have, his xSLG becomes .279.

So .207/.282/.279. So yeah, not good. He hasn't been good. But his numbers are at least suppressed some beyond where they should be, and he needs to start hitting a lot better.

So luck or no luck, he has stunk.

Can you run similar values for last year? Seems he got a bit lucky based on what I have read.

[smootness]

So luck or no luck, he has stunk.

Can you run similar values for last year? Seems he got a bit lucky based on what I have read.

Based on my calculations, his xBABIP last year was .335, compared to his actual BABIP of .383. So adjusting for that, he would have 4.5 fewer hits, giving him an xBA of .267 and an xOBP of .330. I'm not entirely sure how to calculate xSLG because I assume you have to calculate XBH rates and such, but 7 of his 36 non-HR hits were 2B, so taking away 1 seems fair. So taking away 3.5 singles and 1 2B gives you an xSLG of .399.

So a slash line of .267/.330/.399 is roughly what you could expect with a normalized BABIP last year.

[Tapate50]

Based on my calculations, his xBABIP last year was .335, compared to his actual BABIP of .383. So adjusting for that, he would have 4.5 fewer hits, giving him an xBA of .267 and an xOBP of .330. I'm not entirely sure how to calculate xSLG because I assume you have to calculate XBH rates and such, but 7 of his 36 non-HR hits were 2B, so taking away 1 seems fair. So taking away 3.5 singles and 1 2B gives you an xSLG of .399.

So a slash line of .267/.330/.399 is roughly what you could expect with a normalized BABIP last year.

Holy ****.

Lets just sit back and watch some baseball eh?

[thewupk]

Holy ****.

Lets just sit back and watch some baseball eh?

I'm not sure we are watching baseball when the Braves play. It's something else entirely.

[TheBravos]

I'm not sure we are watching baseball when the Braves play. It's something else entirely.

It's called "batting practice"....