part of a grand tour of the farm systemOriginally Posted by CJ9
part of a grand tour of the farm system
A three hour tour?
Ivermectin Man
not sure
..but no tour that leaves from Rome has ever been called a miserable start...until now
command.
Lucas Sims, RHP, Atlanta (Profile)
Level: Triple-A Age: 23 Org Rank: HM Top 100: NR
Line: 6.2 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 10 K
Notes
Sims has an 11% career walk rate but is throwing strikes this year (having recorded just a 6% walk rate so far), including 74 of 107 pitches on Sunday. He’s throwing his fastball up above the strike zone and then working his plus curveball down below and getting swing and misses on both pitches. The fastball is 94-96 but was flat last year, when he surrendered 12 home runs in 50 innings at Triple-A. It doesn’t sound like a significant mechanical change has unlocked Sims’ suddenly good command, though one scout told me he thought Sims’ arm action looks better than last year.
From FG this morning.
Ivermectin Man
Even if his 4-seam is flat, if his improved command is legit (remains to be seen), a 92-94ish 2-seamer should have adequate velocity and movement to still play at the major league level. And if he's getting swings and misses on the fastball at AAA, that seems to be a good sign for the 4-seamer as well.
Looking at his peripherals, it seems the ERA shouldn't be expected to continue at this rate. His GB% is down, his LOB% is up, and his BABIP is way down. But even still, his xFIP is at 3.35, better than even the one he posted at Rome.
I don't think anyone is predicting star. But he could be a solid and cheap 4-5 for a while. I think he should get his chance to work out his promotion mistakes the second half of this year. I'd rather have him with some upside then signing yet another has been we hope to flip. Hopefully he's a good 4-5 and then we trade him arb 1 year or so when the next "wave" has a guy ready to graduate.
... with the caveat that he continues to pitch to those peripherals.
Minor tangent: I prefer FIP to xFIP because I think a pitcher does have a material impact on his FB/HR %, in general. I definitely prefer FIP to xFIP for minor league pitchers. If you look at Sims, he's historically been very good at limiting homeruns despite the so-so GB rate, 2016 notwithstanding. That's one of the many reasons I have always been bullish with his potential as a bullpen arm. If the improved command is real, I think he can definitely stick in the rotation.
Hawk (05-15-2017)
When you rush guys, things like this are going to happen. Hope he gets his head straight and has a good start in Danville (where he will likely surface next) and return to Rome late in the season.
Or maybe he is just too young to "get it" yet? or maybe he just sucks? or maybe there is something mechanical in his swing that he needs to fix? or maybe ? or maybe ?
My point is we don't really know why he is struggling. He struggled mightily in Danville last year. Maybe they were going to keep him in extended spring and he begged for live pitching?
I hope all of the Braves prospects work out, but some don't. At least some from past front offices...
Yes. The reasons vary from player to player and often are a mystery or unknowable. And yet. Even though none of us can prove it, a lot of us have an intuition that in some cases overly aggressive promotion can "harm" a prospect.
They're both useful, and neither one tells you anything concrete on its own. For example, for a guy like Jason Vargas, whose insane HR/FB% this year is not at all sustainable, xFIP is useful, and it is much higher than his FIP. For somebody like Touki, whose HR/FB% had been higher than normal (starting to come down), it is also useful to see the difference and what lowering that rate would mean for his FIP. I still believe in ERA over either one if you're just using one tool, but both of them can help you determine if the ERA is about right or about to come up/down.
But you're right on Sims, he has been able to keep HR down, so his FIP may be a better predictor.
It's not necessarily a rush. IF you are going to challenge people, some are going to fail. That's not a problem. You just put them back and let them them earn another shot.
But that intuition means nothing. It looks like Derian Cruz may just not be good.
I am hard pressed to call an 18 year old 'not that good' if they fail at their first attempt at A ball.
FYI Sims just turned 23 five days ago...he is still pretty young.
Just my take.....he looked like he lost confidence. Only saw him twice. A few weeks ago in the field it looked like he had the yips...(Gotta catch it...Gotta throw it... Gotta get a hit...). He was a longer term project in my book. IF he starts to "get it," he'll be ok.
His problem will be Junior Severino, Maitan (for the near future) and Livan Soto. I figure Yenci Pena at 3B.
Remember, guys like Cruz should just be graduating high school. You move them away from their family and their home at a young age, and expect them to tear it up. Thats culture shock by itself. He has the tools ...he might settle in. Then again...he might miss his family and HATE it here. You never know everything going on with this young kid. Sure, he may never "get it", but more times than not...it's too much for these kids to handle at such a young age. Especially if they are here to try and support their families (which a lot are). That's a ton of pressure. My guess is it's just getting the best of him. Danville is good, gives him something familiar.
Which should make it no surprise that he has struggled in Rome. I was surprised when they stuck him in Rome in the first place. We don't know why he's struggling, but I think they've pushed him before he was ready. Is it the end of the world? No. But I just don't believe in pushing guys for the sake of pushing them.
Ruiz 2-2, 2b
Now hitting .275
May be getting close to time to give him a shot
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