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Thread: Kemp and the Quest for 1 bWAR

  1. #21
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    How many singles does he turn into doubles because he is slow? Kemp is a bad defensive outfielder. I think everybody sees that but homers on this board.
    So point them out. Like I said I can clearly remember 2 plays where I said that was a bad play.

    The thing about these defensive metrics is that we have no clue how they are claculated. We don't see spread charts and percentages of likely balls to be caught by an average left fielder. Everyone just closes their eyes and treats them like the gospel.

    Offensive stats are awesome. Less subjectivity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Excellent? We'll see how his numbers shake out when his BABIP isn't above 400. He's probably going to end up in the 120-125 WRC+ range offensively is about what I expected.
    Yeah, I don't think KEMvP has been near as bad as you KEMvP haters predicted

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    We don't see spread charts and percentages of likely balls to be caught by an average left fielder.
    Actually, I'm pretty sure you can find these. Enscheff posted some in the offseason.

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    A Chip Off the Old Rock Julio3000's Avatar
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    Kemp is mashing the ball, and that's really all I care about. His defense is bad by the eye test (IMO) and that will probably be borne out in the numbers by the end of the year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post

    Offensive stats are awesome. Less subjectivity.
    There is plenty of subjectivity... offensive stat don't account for bloops, and softly hit balls that find holes, and whether or not the defense was in a shift or not.

    The argument can be played both ways.

    Kemp is pretty dagon awful out there. I remember several plays where I would have assumed the ball could have been caught but it drops in front of him. I also see several plays where the left fielder should be making the play, but Ender does instead. And then the fact that he hurt his hamstring diving for a ball a normal left fielder catches standing up, causing him to miss 2 weeks, also has negative value.

    Kemp will be a good player for us if he continues to hit this well. If he continues to hit this well, he will be out performing the last 4 years of his career at age 32... impossible? no. improbably? yes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    So point them out. Like I said I can clearly remember 2 plays where I said that was a bad play.

    The thing about these defensive metrics is that we have no clue how they are claculated. We don't see spread charts and percentages of likely balls to be caught by an average left fielder. Everyone just closes their eyes and treats them like the gospel.

    Offensive stats are awesome. Less subjectivity.
    Offensive stats use the same weighted runs formula as defensive stats do.

    As far as %'s of balls caught and whatnot. Let's look at what Statcast has to say about fly balls caught by some LF's this year.

    5 Star Ranking Breakdown:
    5 Star: 0 - 25%, 4 Star: 26 - 50%, 3 Star: 51 - 75%, 2 Star: 76 - 90%, 1 Star: 91 - 95%

    Duvall: 0/2 Five Stars - 4/6 four Stars - 3/4 Three Stars - 4/5 Two Stars - 7/7 - One Star

    Kemp: 0/4 Five Stars - 0/4 four Stars - 1/2 Three Stars - 2/2 Two Stars - 6/6 - One Star

    Melky: 0/8 Five Stars - 0/0 four Stars - 1/6 Three Stars - 4/4 Two Stars - 12/12 - One Star

    Upton: 0/2 Five Stars - 2/5 four Stars - 2/3 Three Stars - 7/7 Two Stars - 5/5 - One Star

    Gardner: 0/4 Five Stars - 3/4 four Stars - 2/2 Three Stars - 4/4 Two Stars - 4/4 - One Star

    Tomas: 0/4 Five Stars - 0/1 four Stars - 0/0 Three Stars - 3/7 Two Stars - 3/4 - One Star

    Now here are their DRS numbers

    Duvall: +2
    Kemp: -3
    Melky: -2
    Upton: +4
    Gardner: +5
    Tomas: -5

    A couple of things of note. Statcats numbers are just on flyballs caught. DRS numbers include cutting balls off in the gap and ranks a players arm as well. And the main difference between those left fielders considered good and those who are bad lie in the balls that are considered 3 and 4 Stars. So balls that are caught 25-75% of the time. Good outfielders will generally have caught some in the 26-50% range and catch over 50% in the 50-75% range. Those who are bad don't catch any in the 26-50% range and usually half or less in the 50-75% range.

    You may disagree that only a handful of plays can determine who a good fielder or bad fielder is. But you have to realize that is also just takes a few hits to determine who a good or bad hitter is as well.
    Last edited by thewupk; 05-16-2017 at 08:02 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Yeah, I don't think KEMvP has been near as bad as you KEMvP haters predicted
    Offensively? Clearly not. Although I don't think anybody predicted him to be bad offensively.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Offensive stats use the same weighted runs formula as defensive stats do.

    As far as %'s of balls caught and whatnot. Let's look at what Statcast has to say about fly balls caught by some LF's this year.

    5 Star Ranking Breakdown:
    5 Star: 0 - 25%, 4 Star: 26 - 50%, 3 Star: 51 - 75%, 2 Star: 76 - 90%, 1 Star: 91 - 95%

    Duvall: 0/2 Five Stars - 4/6 four Stars - 3/4 Three Stars - 4/5 Two Stars - 7/7 - One Star

    Kemp: 0/4 Five Stars - 0/4 four Stars - 1/2 Three Stars - 2/2 Two Stars - 6/6 - One Star

    Melky: 0/8 Five Stars - 0/0 four Stars - 1/6 Three Stars - 4/4 Two Stars - 12/12 - One Star

    Upton: 0/2 Five Stars - 2/5 four Stars - 2/3 Three Stars - 7/7 Two Stars - 5/5 - One Star

    Gardner: 0/4 Five Stars - 3/4 four Stars - 2/2 Three Stars - 4/4 Two Stars - 4/4 - One Star

    Tomas: 0/4 Five Stars - 0/1 four Stars - 0/0 Three Stars - 3/7 Two Stars - 3/4 - One Star

    Now here are their DRS numbers

    Duvall: +2
    Kemp: -3
    Melky: -2
    Upton: +4
    Gardner: +5
    Tomas: -5

    A couple of things of note. Statcats numbers are just on flyballs caught. DRS numbers include cutting balls off in the gap and ranks a players arm as well. And the main difference between those left fielders considered good and those who are bad lie in the balls that are considered 3 and 4 Stars. So balls that are caught 25-75% of the time. Good outfielders will generally have caught some in the 26-50% range and catch over 50% in the 50-75% range. Those who are bad don't catch any in the 26-50% range and usually half or less in the 50-75% range.

    You may disagree that only a handful of plays can determine who a good fielder or bad fielder is. But you have to realize that is also just takes a few hits to determine who a good or bad hitter is as well.
    well do these three or four star play opportunities count if none of us saw them and they occurred in innings where no runs scored

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    well do these three or four star play opportunities count if none of us saw them and they occurred in innings where no runs scored
    If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?
    Yup. And if a guy hits a triple but no runs score and no one sees it, should it count. I mean real baseball fans only consider things that directly lead to runs and that they can see with their own eyes to be of importance. The game is played on a field not a spreadsheet!

    Excel has ruined baseball! Enough of this nonsense!

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    Another thing of note is that park factors for Sun Trust are finally kicking in. Kemp has a 997 OPS but only a 155 OPS+ whereas Corey Dickerson of the Rays has a 942 OPS with a 162 OPS+. Raw OPS numbers in Atlanta are going to be inflated. Something to keep in mind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Another thing of note is that park factors for Sun Trust are finally kicking in. Kemp has a 997 OPS but only a 155 OPS+ whereas Corey Dickerson of the Rays has a 942 OPS with a 162 OPS+. Raw OPS numbers in Atlanta are going to be inflated. Something to keep in mind.
    true or false? you live in your parents' basement

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    true or false? you live in your parents' basement
    Not mine no.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Not mine no.
    when was the last time you watched a game...with your own eyes

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Not mine no.
    who's parents basement then?

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    who's parents basement then?
    I've already stated my location

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    when was the last time you watched a game...with your own eyes
    Physically? About 3 years. Can we really trust what we see on tv?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Not mine no.
    Wait, I thought I heard something downstairs last night.. you better stay out of my beer stash in the downstairs fridge.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Physically? About 3 years. Can we really trust what we see on tv?
    Not really. TV images can be altered to be misleading. Some of the balls that Kemp didn't catch were actually much more difficult than they looked on TV. Plus TV doesn't show actual conditions including wind and glare from the sun or the stadium lights or cellphone camera flashes.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-16-2017 at 08:45 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I've already stated my location
    why are you being so evasive

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